Floor Talk, May 29, 2019

[marketeye]

At 9:18am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.24. Dec. corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.40 3/4.

July soybean futures are 18¢ higher at $8.74. November soybean futures are 17 3/4¢ higher at $9.00 3/4.

July wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $5.01.

July soymeal futures are $7.20 per short ton higher at $320.00.

July soy oil futures are $0.45 cent higher at 27.74¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.66 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that those investors that miss a day of the news will miss a lot.

“The bulls are off to an impressive start this week. First, the gap higher on Monday evening was followed by a continued rally right into the close. Then, the Tuesday afternoon Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 59% and soybean planting at 29%. Both of those numbers were below trade expectations and further confirmed the very poor weather conditions this spring. The current forecast for the next seven days does have less rain than last week. However, we are so waterlogged across the Corn Belt that any rain will slow planting for longer than we can afford. The bulls haven’t even started with emergence problems, let alone the crop ratings,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The corn spread that was mentioned last week continues to rip higher. The spread between December 2019 and December 2020 corn has rallied over 65 cents since May 10. This confirms that the commercial market is very concerned with planting delays. Their concern is valid: An estimated 39 million acres of corn still are not planted.”

Mike

[illinifarmer]

And the markets have given back gains to turn lower at time of this post. Justified or just plain thievery I’ll let you be the judge? We see what’s happened everyone was wrong at the CBOT and USDA. Now they’re covering and compensating to not end up like farmers broke and without hope. The new relief package should be all traders and analysts pay the economic loss to farmers for last 6 years. Even if they all go down. A fresh start would be far more beneficial than the current market process or problems.

[jec22]

The healthiest bull markets don't go straight up.  Actually, a non limit move up is probably very positive.  Though one could easily argue that corn is still very under priced.   It is a swamp here in the southern half of Iowa, not a good thing for corn roots on a plant that is already way behind in growth.  And the lack of sunny days has to be a record.  It is May 29 and 61 degrees with overcast skies and high humidity.  Only thing working is tile. 

Can't believe those who think higher prices are a bad thing.  Been at this long enough to know that those years that are few and far between with high prices are what pay for equipment upgrades, shops, more land.  It also gives the cushion for all the rest of the years.

Of course, traders are no different than the rest of us.  Believing a forecast that says it is going to dry out, so we give the field another day, only to have it rain and be wrong again.  If you look at the days it is suppose to be sunny in Iowa over the next two weeks...ugly.  But the forecast hopefully is wrong there too.

Patience.  And another positive, farmers are selling into this rally, a must for it to continue.

[samalan1140]

Pretty stupid to close corn down 3 cents,planting insurance dates are past and corn planted in june does not yeild well but i'm just a farmer what the hell do i know.

[swmi]

Nobody in Southwest Michigan Still can’t plan a crop and yet corn goes down today. What does it take to make an honest living in this farming community? These traders have got to be a different breed of people. I wonder when they order a 2nd cup of coffee they tell the server their cup is 1/4 empty. Try to figure that one out.

[rickgthf]

Don't get nervous, corn is just taking a little breather to gather it's strength for another move higher.This just gives another bunch of bulls a chance to buy and get on board.  The fact that it still closed above the open is a good sign.

  The fact that it closed right on the middle line suggests that the powers that be got this right where they want it to be.

[roarintiger1]

Anyone else notice that Big Al has gone from reporting almost all bearish news to now finally reporting some bullish news? Well hey, even old Rip Van Winkle woke up after 20 years. 

[rickgthf]

My question is, what's behind the bean rally?  84 million acres at 40 bpa is still 3.36 billion bushel.  Add that to the 1.2 billion carryout and the reduced demand due to the lack of China buying there should still be an ample amount of beans.  And on top of that, there's likely to be some corn ground switched to beans.

  So why should beans rally?  Is it just the updraft from corn?

  And is corn trying to buy more production through late planted corn or just ration the perceived supply, or both?

[BA Deere]

The trade probably got "buck fever"  60, 70, 80 bushels per acre...plenty O beans!  but now it could bean 20, 30 40 bushels per acre...oooops!   Right now beans are down 4 , so they aren`t going to do us any favors  and as soon as there`s a couple half way fit planting days, they`ll go right back to their larceny.  

Oooor Sue Martin could be correct about China buying under the radar.