Floor Talk May 29

[marketeye]

After the close:

A floor trader just shared that 26,000 Dec. corn calls were purchased, electronically, today. That doesn't even include what was purchased on the floor. This was short-covering. Somebody thinks this new-crop corn market has legs.

Mike

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At the close:

The July futures corn contract settled 2 cents lower at $6.65. New-crop Dec. futures finished 14 cents higher at $5.65. The July soybean futures contract finished 7 cents lower at $15.01, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 1 cent higher at $12.88. July wheat futures closed 9 cents higher at $7.02 per bushel. The July soymeal futures ended $2.00 per short ton lower at $444.30. The July soyoil futures finished $0.91 lower at $48.63.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.64 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 86 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July futures corn contract is trading 14 cents lower at $6.52. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 1 cent lower at $5.50. The July soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $14.95, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents lower at $12.81. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.97 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $441.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.75 lower at $48.79.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.28 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 116 points lower.

One analyst says, "The cash bean offers might be out there, but the cancelation of sales of old crop beans by China Wednesday is sending the specs into a little selling.  Plus, talk after the progress reports yesterday that farmers could switch 3 to 4 million acres from corn to beans hurting new crop beans and helping new crop corn," he says.  
There has been some spec selling, today, but not too much, he says".  "Overall, I think it is a pretty low volume day for the small spec, as the phones in this office have been quiet.  No real farm selling interest out there so far today. My demand guys and my Brazil guys are quiet. Just not a lot of buzz in the grain room so far!"

Mike

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At the open:

The July futures corn contract opened 3 cents lower at $6.64. New-crop Dec. futures opened 4 cents higher at $5.54. The July soybean futures contract opened 10 cents lower at $14.99, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 6 cents lower at $12.82. July wheat futures opened 2 cents higher at $6.92 per bushel. The July soymeal futures opened $4.00 per short ton lower at $438.30. The July soyoil futures opened $0.22 lower at $49.32.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.71 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points lower.

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA announces Wednesday that China has canceled 147,000 tons of previously purchased U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery. Huh, oh! Is this going to set a pattern?

Mike

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At 7am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 3-5 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 2-4 cents higher and soybeans are seen 3-5 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.69 per barrel lower. 
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen lower, as the market is expected to give back some of yesterday's gains.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[BA Deere]

Well, we tried to talk the markets higher with all this phoney talk of planting delay in NCIA...crap!  it didn`t work.  I finished spraying Halex on my 6" corn yesterday and will start bean spraying today, gosh we could sure use a shot of rain here.  *sarcasm off*

I think this is a gift horse opportunity for those that sold too soon to get out of early sales, especially those farming in those concocted "planting delayed" areas.  Anyway just my 2¢

[vrbuck]

elwyn taylor stated in a year like this one we usually see a 25 percent cut in yield.  add the cut iun yield to less acres and balance sheets get tight and interesting.  Just a 20 percent cut would put national yield at 131 (from trend line of 164).  If you take 3.5 million of switched and pp acres of the march report from the 131 national yield, stocks next year decline another 458.5 million bu.

[sw363535]

Need to check with one of your operatives but a real possibility is ---------- the China announcement is the amount of that sale that cannot be sourced.

[lsc76cat]

Local elevator basis for beans went from -.20 yesterday to +.70 today.  After the negative basis march last week is anybody else seeing this much positive movement?

[sw363535]

Isc76cat------------- special for you, my friend, I made the call.  The Cargill processor in Southern Ks that supplies our area just told me this.

"We have rolled to the Nov13 price and our basis is $2.50+ ."-------- making todays spot price (may 29th)  $15.33------ as of a few moments ago.

Is there any clearer way to say we are out of beans til next harvest -------------- why bother with August or september?

[lsc76cat]

Local elevator is still using the August futures so current cash price is $14.95.

CHS Mankato and Fairmont are also using August with a basis of +.95 for cash price of $15.20.

[rightone]

conservatively this is the "break" or wetter in between year in the big dry extremes.

break year should yield 10 to 15% more on average over the dry year before.

on corn that's in the 135 to 140 avg range ( assuming 123 to 125 was the 2012 avg ).

keep in mind with less acres planted, those are the Good acres.

if 10 to 15 mill goes non planted those are marginal acres anyway.

( farming the govt check )

there never has been more than 80 to 85 million good corn acres in the usa.

never will be either.

[lsc76cat]

Just did a quick check of NOAA radar sites in and around Iowa.  Noticed all the flood warnings!!

Good thing the Army Corps of Engineers got rid of those rocks in the Mississippe River channel.

Lord only knows when they would have another chance.

[jec22]

keep in mind with less acres planted, those are the Good acres.

Really, Rightone,  Might want to rethink that.  My best field, highest APH of any I farm, will yield a big fat zero this year on corn. Planted, and up with a beautiful stand before it was hammered with rain.   Never has that happened in all the decades I have farmed.  Only thing that could change that would be 90's for the next 10 days with NO rain to allow replant.  Ain't going to happen.

I am amazed the corn on the higher ground still looks as good as it does.  Behind in growth, yes, but, still greener than I would have thought.  But those wet spots turn hot and dry and it will be ugly. 

Should be plenty of grain bin storage for fall.