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bkadds
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

Are traders are selling July corn and maybe buying new crop?  Time to shed some old crop?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

Bkadds,

 

A good thought----------- when we see the new crop contracts take the lead , it is time to find the nitch it fits in if you got  a few left.

 

Did you get blown away last night??    Had hail and storms all around till that sw wind hit at 60+ mph.  Those storms blew apart like a stick house in Moore, Okla.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

SW......the rolling of the bean bids to the X is about two things.....psychology and escaping the extreme volatility in the front month contracts......I advised folks that whenever they saw a bean bid get changed to anything but the July, they had to IMMEDIATELY get bean basis set vs. the X.....in central Iowa, you could have locked in +325X when the processor was bidding +100N and higher....now, the bid is +200-225X and that seems like a really big number....until you figure out just how much you gave up in the past couple of weeks....it is SO much easier to get the bean bid to go from +250X to +200X than it is to get it from +100N to +50N....

 

psychology and the law of large numbers at work once again..

 

Ray J

 

PS (and really nothing to do about being out of beans the rest of the year---that may or may not be the case, but not the reason bean bids have gone to the X)

bkadds
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

SW we got the 50 mph winds last night and not a drop of rain.  Humidity down in the single digits with that kind of wind sure makes for tough corn growning conditions.  All of my corn had just one to three leaves and got blasted pretty good.  Hopefully, it does not set it back to much.  I had just cut the wheat hay on Monday and now I get to run a rake prior to baling as it blew some, but not as bad as the last two years.  I guess I should have waited to cut the hay till the corn was bigger as it always seems to blow like a son of a gun when I cut hay.  Used to get rain with hay on the ground, but that does not even work anymore.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

Thank you Ray-------------------- much appreciated

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

I have raked alfalfa out of 6-10 inch corn more than once ------------ my sympathy you have.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

vrbuck,

actual (plotted on a graph) trendline yield is about 150 bpa since 1960

 

a 25% cut takes it down to 112 minus acres lost.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

the bull spreads will again begin working by next week...mkt is allowing Dec to get a foothold and send it's mssg that, "oh yeah, we need some risk premium."

 

if i was a producer and thought the highs were in i'd shed it all.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

next logical resistance point is at 5.70ish, we should gap over that though and head for 6.00-6.10 and target 6.30-6.50.

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 29

Vr--am I reading you right in that you might be bullish?  I am a long time reader of yours and have to say I only recall you being bearish.  No offense intended.  CX1--been getting any of the rain after San Antonio got pummeled?

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