Floor Talk, May 3, 2019
Managed money investors are now record net short the soybean market, to the tune of 148,526 contracts, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders Report.
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $3.70 3/4. Dec. corn futures closed 3/4¢ higher at $3.87 3/4.
July soybean futures closed 1¢ lower at $8.42 1/4. November soybean futures finished 3/4¢ lower at $8.64 1/4.
July wheat futures finished 6¢ lower at $4.38.
July soymeal futures closed $1.30 per short ton higher at $298.20. July soy oil futures ended $0.15 cent lower at 27.35¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.18 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 208 points higher.
At midsession, the July corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.69 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.86.
July soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $8.44 3/4. November soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $8.66 1/4.
July wheat futures are 7¢ lower at $4.37.
July soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $298.60. July soy oil futures are $0.09 cent lower at 27.41¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.62 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 195 points higher.
The outside investors lightened up on their short corn positions, this week, from a record-large 344,000 to 295,000 and corn rallied 20 cents from last Thursday's low to this morning's high. Is that a big enough rally, for you, to be convinced that the funds have market-moving power?
Also, taking a look at what is expected in next Friday's USDA Crop Production Report. Some in the trade see the report lowering export forecasts for both corn and soybeans. I don't know, I get the sense that investors are going to gnaw on Monday's corn planting percentage.
And, to that point, Scott Irwin, University of Illinois economist, is reminding folks, today, that five of the six years with 30% of the corn crop left to plant after May 20th, since the 1980s, have resulted in about a 6-bushel drop in the national average yield.
You wonder, though, if even that stat will impact the market, knowing the huge ending stocks that the world is sitting on?
On the flipside, the International Grains Council, estimated this week, that for the third year in a row, the world is going to consume all of the grain that is produced, this year. So, we're using up all that is being produced. And with that in mind, you (or the market) has to ask, can we afford a 6-bushel drop in the U.S. corn crop?
Hmmm... what say you?
In early trading, the July corn futures are 3¢ lower at $3.67 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.75.
July soybean futures are 3/4¢ lower at $8.42 1/2. November soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $8.64.
July wheat futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $4.37.
July soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $297.20. July soy oil futures are $0.07 cent lower at 27.43¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.18 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 120 points higher.
On Friday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 293,922 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the market is officially being driven by the weather.
“The market seems to be pricing in a little weather premium. Much of the US has been rather wet and looks to be that way for a few more days before it starts to warm up and dry out. There is not a lot new in the marketplace for news to trade on, other than wet weather delaying planting. Expect choppy trade action today as we head into the weekend,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.