Floor Talk, May 30, 2019
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 17 1/2¢ higher at $4.36 3/4. Dec. corn futures finished 16 1/4¢ higher at $4.52 1/2.
July soybean futures closed 17¢ higher at $8.89. November soybean futures closed 17¢ higher at $9.15 1/2.
July wheat futures ended 24¢ higher at $5.14 1/2.
July soymeal futures finished $8.40 per short ton higher at $327.40. July soy oil futures closed $0.05 cent higher at 27.78¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.22 lower, the U.S. dollar is even, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.
In early trading, the July corn futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $4.24. Dec. corn futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.42.
July soybean futures are 10 1/4¢ higher at $8.82 1/4. November soybean futures are 9 3/4¢ higher at $9.08 1/4.
July wheat futures are 6¢ higher at $4.96 1/2. July soymeal futures are $3.10 per short ton higher at $322.10. July soy oil futures are $0.07 cent higher at 27.80¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.19 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 76 points higher.
Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the market has a lot to digest.
“Corn prices gapped higher on two occasions, this week, and had some back and fill yesterday. Appears that corn is, at least for now, respecting $4.50 per bushel. I would assume that without a fresh influx of bullish news that would hold true. A challenge and breakout of $4.50 would be rather significant considering the market has not been there since back in 2013,” O’Connell says.
With the U.S. on the cusp of many farmers having to choose between taking prevent plant or entering into their late planting window, it appears today - and it seems to change regularly - the new MFP payment will be linked to acres planted, he says.
“With corn prices near $4.50, it will certainly sway farmers decisions. That bleeds over into beans as well. They may end up choosing to plant beans on acres that are still wet in hopes of getting them in and receiving a payment.”
The soybean market has made a very valiant effort, the last few days, to follow corn.
“But, I believe soybean prices have turbulent waters ahead. The 7-10 day forecast for the Midwest does appear to be drying out and pointing to more favorable planting conditions - should this be the case we will see a tremendous amount of progress in the coming week. Also seems to be a bit of doubt around the USDA's latest estimate on plantings,” O’Connell says.
The Pipe Dream
For many is the say $4.50 holds cash corn.
The Fact or Truth is that say $4.65 to $4.85 will be the near term Cash price for Most Locals .
Within 30 days btw, corn will be a lot higher than $4.80.....say $5.80 is Likely.
Re Bloomberg: China says, no more goodwill soy purchases.
Bloomberg is reporting that China won't make anymore goodwill purchases of soybeans. They say they aren't going to cancel previous purchases but I suspect they'll drag those out just to keep the Brazilians from raising the price then cancel when they've go enough.