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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 4 2020

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 3¢ lower at $3.15 3/4. Dec. corn futures closed 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.34.

July soybean futures settled 13¢ lower at $8.36 1/2. November soybean futures finished 9 1/4¢ lower at $8.45 3/4.

July wheat futures closed 3¢ higher at $5.19 1/2.

July soymeal futures settled $4.10 per short ton lower at $288.40.

 July soy oil futures ended $0.35 cent lower at 26.15¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.58 per barrel higher at $20.36 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 115 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that today's markets just can't find any bullish news to trade.

"Grains have trading lower most of the day. Friendly news is hard to find and old bearish news continues to find its way back to the market. There are talks of increased tariffs with China and ideal planting conditions that have eroded most of last week's short covering. Also, unknown spring weather and optimism on exports may limit breaks at these levels," Roose says.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 4¢ lower at $3.14 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 4¢ lower at $3.33 3/4.

July soybean futures are 13 1/4¢ lower at $8.36 1/2. November soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $8.44 3/4.

July wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $5.14 1/2.

July soymeal futures are $3.30 per short ton lower at $290.20.

July soy oil futures are $0.40 cent lower at 26.10¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.10 per barrel higher at $19.88 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 187 points lower.

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.14 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.33 3/4.

July soybean futures are 14¢ lower at $8.35 1/2. November soybean futures are 12 3/4¢ lower at $8.42 3/4.

July wheat futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $5.08 1/2.

July soymeal futures are $3.30 per short ton lower at $289.20.

July soy oil futures are $0.46 cent lower at 26.04¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 per barrel lower at $19.51 per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 336 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the U.S., China tension over the coronavirus has the attention of the investors.

"The increase in tension with China will put pressure on the stock and commodity markets until somehow some cooperation begins," Kluis told customers in a daily note. We are watching the May-to-July soybean spread. The carry was out to 10 cents last week and has narrowed to just 1 ½ cents. When the bull spreads start working, it is a positive signal for prices--even if the futures are lower at this time.

Kluis added, "The energy markets posted an impressive rally back last week, which helped corn stabilize and soybeans rally."

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 115,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Mike

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8 Replies
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 4 2020

Farmer's won't make it on these prices you damn idiots.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 4 2020

Get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the Heat!!!

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 4 2020

Just like you don't care if they go broke, they don't care if we do. It's not their job to care.  They know that we will plant it. Someone will always plant it. When it gets to where we don't then they will take notice.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Kuis, "The increase in tension with China will put pressure on the stock and commodity markets"

To quote Kuis, "The increase in tension with China will put pressure on the stock and commodity markets until somehow some cooperation begins, ..".

Trump has apparently made the decision that his only hope for re-election now depends on being able to convince enough of his supporters that "China is to blame for everything".  Unfortunately,  the "China's the blame for everything" strategy and the Chinese trade deal are mutually exclusive.  You can't have both at the same time. 

  There never was much chance that Phase One would amount to much but now we're never going to find out. 

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 4 2020

Give me a C, give me a R, give me a O give me another O, give me a K, ahhh you all know where we’re going with this. Happy Monday, frost warnings anywhere else this week fellas.?  Have to love these ideal planting conditions.  Why not only lost half our planted acres here so far, let’s see how the rest take to more rain and 30’s.

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Advisor

Thxe world looks in this direction..

... and there is nobody home.

It was always said that our HUGE strong economy would make us impossible to overtake and immune from vulnerability. Growing and emerging economies could depend on our civil and private support and investment.

It’s not Chinese diseases or workers or companies that doom us. It’s Chinese investors.  The rest of Asia, Africa, the Caribbean.  On and on. Eyes on the suddenly resource poor Middle East.

Not sure how to fix it.   Surely will take longer than the 3 1/3 it took to turn so many things, imperfect as they may have been, upside down.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/time-americans-are-doing-nothing/611056/

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Senior Advisor

Re: Thxe world looks in this direction..

Although I've found that treatises on the The Thucydides Trap, George Kennan and his Long Telegram etc. don't tend to be met with positive peer reviews at Bullwinkle's History Corner.

As far as the entirety of our future relationship with China- both economic and geopolitical, it was undermined by the President's obsession with a small constituency in a few electorally significant states (agriculture).

Pox on all houses.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Thxe world looks in this direction..

Of course in agriculture you find the curious intersection of nationalism, provincial isolationism and an absolute belief in the right to government support.

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