Floor Talk May 4

[marketeye]

Exclusive Story: Agriculture.com has learned that Brazil sees importing U.S. soybeans as likely. No significant amounts of soybeans have been exported to Brazil in over a decade. What do you think?

Read full story:  "Brazil Eyes U.S. Soybean Imports"

Mike

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At 8:05am:

It looks like the outside markets will be pressured today, due to fewer nonfarm payroll jobs added in April. There were 115,000 jobs added when economists expected 168,000. Talk of jobs lull setting in for Spring, Dow drops.

Mike

-----------

At 8am:

Here they come. More large export sales!

--USDA announces Friday that 240,000 mt of U.S. corn was sold to Mexico for 2012-13 delivery.

--USDA announces Friday that 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13 delivery.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Fyi: Informa Economics, the private analyst firm, will release its May crop estimates at 10:30am this morning.

Mike

-----

At 6:30 am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.14 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher ahead of U.S. Payrolls Report.

World Markets=Mostly lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Boy you were not kidding........I think the powder keg is lit........and corn has to go along for the ride, especially after the last 72 hours weather in the midwest.......

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

What sticks out to you the most about the story, the bean shortage or the increase in corn production?

Mike

[Buckley_HF]

Great story Mike, really puts into perspective the somewhat serious supply situation we now face globally.  If China keeps buying beans from us everyday it may be hard for Brazil to come here and even find any left on our shelves.  I don't want to hijack your story or anything but I found this article this am that kind of goes hand in hand with this situation.  http://www.agrimoney.com/news/brazil-farmers-lobby-to-ensure-corn-bet-pays-off--4481.html  

Sounds like the farmers in Brazil may have bet to big on corn production and not big enough on soya?

[Mizzou_Tiger]

First thing that comes to mind, not so much more corn and less soya...........but the fact they too are also in an acreage battle that is skewing efficient production........their soils are old and worn from what I have read and heard........we have some very deep and productive soils in NA and still have variable corn production........steep diminishing returns with regards to total production and not profits are making a tight situation even tighter....

[timetippingpt]

The sky is always falling! Starvation lurks around every corner. Gasp.

Talk about a story that is old news. Pretty sure the Big C's (Cargill and China) knew they had supply issues 2 months ago,

you know when beans were $12 not $15. Kind of explains the vertical $3 rally. The point being it explains the past, not the future, which is exactly the way news always works.

[marketeye]

Buckley_HF,

On top of all this, the Buenos Aires Exchange Thursday lowered Argentina's soybean crop, again. This time, the crop has been cut by 2.0 million metric tons to 41 mmt. And plenty of private crop estimators have their number between 37-39 mmt. So, yes, there seems to be some real shortages in South America.

Mike

[marketeye]

time:thetipping point,

Maybe. But, if you consider that Brazil won't have another crop until February of next year, and we don't even have our crop in the ground, I'm not so sure this story is all about the past. If you are the risk manager for your marketing portfolio, you might want to consider the nature of the story.

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

not sure at least one of the C's knew.................if they did they would have been calling looking for soya at $11 and $12 last fall instead of $15 last week..............

EDIT:  now that I think about it............neither one of the C's knew or they both would have been doing that...............

[rusureofit]

One to three inches of rain in our area the last few days and now they are predicting 3-4 more inches in the next few days.....most of the corn is in around here but not all of it and those that are done with corn are just starting beans.  Those who planted corn before the 20th of april are now deciding what to do with it as the stands are very poor and one field here has already been replanted.  Things were looking great here a week ago but now things are changing fast and may not be an early finish or the best of stands if this heavy rain comes.