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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

Hi Buckley,

 

I did most of the story research along with Mike and interviewed the local experts. Here in Brazil another aspect that contributes for more bets on corn is that we have two corn seasons. It is what is called here "safrinha". That is very common in the center-west part of the country in states like Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.

 

The local government officials are also saying that even though we had this big drought, the crops were "good" compared to previous years. It seems for me that maybe the size of the problem is not being recognized here, but also from my stand point there is a problem to supply the global demand for soybean and food in general. What do you guys think?

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Another 'old saying'

"When the news comes out it's already factored into the market": That is a nonsense position - like 'volatility is your friend'. The market is a dynamic process. The idea the market is 'made' by a group of insiders that have the only access to market information in time to define market action is ridiculous on the face of it. It might have been true in  yesteryear but not in today's digital world. Besides, to every action there is a reaction. Users and others react to changes in conditions and yet the future can't be predicted. You can't define a market 1 or two months in the future. If so farmers would have a simple job. 

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

Well, I can't help on the beans.  I shipped my last earlier this week for something around $14.80 - don't have the tally yet.  Cargill had called an badgered me because I was sitting on an earlier contract and the vac was broken.  They were right, I should have delivered, but they were getting ready to knock a dime off the price when the vac was done and I got the load shipped.  

I'll probably sell the rest of my old crop corn on bumps. 

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Another 'old saying'

I believe that there are insiders who, to some extent, set the tone of the market. At least in the futures markets where inside information is not illegal.  For instance, you have to know that Nestle has folks walking the cocoa fields in the Ivory Coast, and if something is going on with the weather or the crop they're going to get busy buying or selling cocoa futures.  They'll do so quietly and they won't tell you or me because they don't have to.  It won't be in the news because it's not news yet, but all that buying or selling will be reflected in the price.  By the time it does make the news the price has already moved. 

 

Soros said that the only fundamental that matters is money--that is, in which direction it's flowing.  Right now (today at least) it's flowing out and down.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

Dec corn 2012 broke the triple bottom support . Looks like four dollar corn is coming.
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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Another 'old saying'

glenlivett18 you said it much like I understand it.

If anyone thinks a large buyer goes into the market in a big obviuos way they do not understand how things work.

Large firms have many hands in the market.

A decision to enter a market in any large way would be done through many 'hands' not one big buyer/seller.

It may still impact the market and price but it is not as obvious as seeing XYZ's buyer busy doing business.

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Buckley_HF
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

Luisvieira, thanks for your input and knowledge of South American Ag. It's great for us boys up here to have a good reliable source on the ground down there. As we know this is a global market. Keep up the info. Thanks again.
highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

If the soy crop is that bad down south, well the $16 mark stop the upward trend.  

 

I don't think we have a long term problem with producing crops world wide, its just been a perfect storm the last few years. 

 

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

$4 this fall for new crop yes, old crop is consolidating on the charts, its getting ready to make a move,  I'm betting on higher,

old crop soybeans as well.  I see a rally coming.  

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk May 4

Wow, corn really got up off the deck.  Went long at 620.

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