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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk May 6, 2021

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $7.14. New crop September futures are 9 1/2¢ higher at $6.40 1/2. December corn futures are 14¢ higher at $6.18 1/4.

July soybean futures are 20 1/2¢ higher at $15.63 3/4. August soybean futures are 19 3/4¢ higher at $15.11 1/2. New crop November soybean futures are 21 1/4¢ higher at $14.04 1/4.

July wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $7.40 3/4.

July soymeal futures are unchanged at $424.40.

July soy oil futures are +0.44 higher at 63.90¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -0.42 lower (-0.64%) at $65.21. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 170 points higher (+0.50%) at 34,401 points.

 

Mike

--------

At 8:45am:

Nearby soybean contract heads to its life's end hitting $16 

 

 

Mike

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11 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 6, 2021

"Demand remains strong as end users continue to be willing to pay for the higher-priced corn."

 

there is no other viable option for livestock producers over the next few months. Takes a while to shut down a hog or fat cattle feeding program.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 6, 2021

Mike here are two websites for real-world cash prices here in central Iowa...(end users/processors)

https://www.fhr.com/corn-prices/menlo

https://admfarmview.com/cash-bids/bids/desmoines

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk May 6, 2021

From a gbs farmers stand point it is finally nice to see 16 hold into the day session on beans.

Corn has  been on both sides of $7.5 and over $7.60 in overnight session.

BTW, no tilling beans into ground just slightly softer than concrete and leaving some of them in dry soil. Kinda be nice to get a rain.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

   As of last week, Commitment of Traders shows 421,919 short, other corn contracts on the books under the Producer/...end-user category.  That's more than twice as much as the same time last year or 2.1 billion bushels that are no longer available to be sold.

  My point is, let's say we end up with a 14 billion bushel crop, less than 12 billion hasn't been priced.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

Im not sure those two have any correlation 

One is data from a novel.

the other just reflects casino short of chips...... lots of cash and "we forgot to order chips".    comes with lots of stimulus $$$ maybe.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

Hobby the fact that they are quoting bids out 2 or 3 years is one of the things that is so bazaar ---- or says this is not high prices?

Are we seeing the deserved devaluation of the dollar?

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

SW pretty standard here to have posted bids that far out .

Gives the illusion they plan on being n business for the long haul.

Totally wiffed the $15 bean thingy, now after a reset of data and a greedy gut feeling have reset the target into the stratosphere. (Might wish I'd taken the $15???) $16.24 right now. 

   New  half ton pickups are easy to see sticker prices over $60,000 . Sure would like to have a new nice one sometime . Don't think grain is too high yet.  

45 more days without rain and the fat lady will be in full voice.

 

Corn is up and first beans are quite visible too.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

It’s cool and damp  here in the eastern belt. The crops that are in, are being reluctant to stick out of the ground. What isn’t planted may not get planted until mid to late next week. We will be shooting past the prime date to get the corn in the ground soon. 
We need a somewhat perfect crop and it isn’t starting out like it will be. 
“One of these days Alice......POW!

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for reference, COT

very true,

My point hobby was in light of this not being a common time in the market.... If we are peaking(and we only think so because this is where it changed in 2014), we would be expecting the market to go back down.  And when end users think the market is over priced they are hand to mouth.  Even if they quote next year there will be enough fine print and basis cost to discourage trade, If they will quote at all waiting for the crop.

So what is the difference this time.

What If I was wrong in 2011 and assumed the hot market in 2012-2014 was based on lower production due to a hot drought.  It was a drought (a delusion of thought always needs to have a little basis in truth). What if the demand side of the equation was based on too much pie in the sky.  When the market started looking toppy and expensive ethanol started thinking maybe we don't really need so much......etc.   Maybe ethanol was in a couple different ways was not real demand.  Maybe it was legislated demand that started looking less like clean energy if it paid too much for grain.

And secondly this time we are in a series of production trimming droughts world wide and world wide demand. instead of a politically contrived demand, where opinions will change with socially advantage mood swings.

There is seriously a list of reasons present for peak corn to have been 2010 (or wherever Mizzu said it was). Led by irrigations legislated and physically deminished state (Nation wide).  Tech over hype, economic stress,  social norms toward labor exertion, the pillaging of agriculture resources world wide,  fertilizer mining, etc etc.

See ya got me when you said "this time is different".......... begs the question.  Why?

 

Maybe the idea that Harvard is in South America competing against us has set a different mind set to this season or the level of desire.  Just what is another crop actually worth?   

What defines the tipping point this time?

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