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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.66 1/2. Dec. corn futures ended 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.83 3/4.

July soybean futures ended 1/2¢ higher at $8.30 3/4. November soybean futures settled unchanged at $8.53.

 

July wheat futures finished 2 1/4¢ higher at $4.39.



 

July soymeal futures finished $3.40 per short ton lower at $293.20.

 July soy oil futures closed $0.03 cent lower at 27.10¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.90 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 573 points lower.

 

Mike

---------------

At 12-Noon:

 

At 12-Noon, the July corn futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.67 1/2. Dec. corn futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.85.

July soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $8.33 1/2. November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $8.55 1/2.

 

July wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.41.



 

July soymeal futures are $1.90 per short ton lower at $294.70.

July soy oil futures are $0.01 cent higher at 27.14¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.84 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 493 points lower.

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the markets are digesting a lot of news.

 

“Market is having a hard time which story to subscribe to, the delayed planting that has become a reality or fear that we could slap another round of tariffs on China. Likely a wait and see of the later. Corn has good reason to move higher, but is held back by soybeans - same story line that has loomed over it all year. Corn feels like it is not carrying enough risk premium and beans feel like they are now living in reality.

 

O’Connell adds, “I would expect that with WASDE on Friday and an announcement regarding tariffs, we could see some excitement end of week; moreover, Monday afternoon we will take a look again at planting progress - of which it feels like little progress will be made across much of the corn belt.”

 

Mike

-------------------------

At 9:30am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.63. Dec. corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.81.

July soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $8.31 1/2. November soybean futures are 1/2¢ higher at $8.53.

 

July wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.32 3/4.

July soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton lower at $295.60.

July soy oil futures are $0.01 cent higher at 27.14¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.12 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 318 points lower.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the market’s technical factors are being watched, along with weather.

 

“The gap lower, yesterday, on the daily soybean chart is likely to result in an island bottom, if a trade deal gets done with China,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “Next week the six-year average corn planting pace nationwide is at 63%. Based on the current weather forecast, I doubt if that number is attainable. I would make a very early guess that planting progress can jump to 44% complete for the report released on Monday May 13, 2019.”

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

I do love how the industry has so much confidence in us peasant farmers.

 

44%? What planet is this guy living on. Look at the radar this morning.

The cold temps are as much a problem as the rain actually. Evaporation

rates have been terribly low thus no wheels turning in a lot of places

that normally would be planting today east of the MS river. 

 

Trade doesn't understand that once we get passed May 10th we actually

have to wait for it to dry out even more. Planting wet after May 10th is

a sure way to take 35 bu off the corn yield, or more. Because one of

these days it isn't going to rain again, thus you have to get good seed

placement and slot closure, which you cannot do in cold wet dirt.

Of course I know, it doesn't matter, and the facts are irrelevant, 180 nat yield

is in the bag   (literally, it is still IN the bag, although we all use boxes

now )  :-)

 

The gap down is a bogus gap, now filled, becomes a pretty bullish price pattern

for corn. Wheat has a very bullish reversal pattern in place IF it can exceed

the high at 448. 

 

I continue to ask all speculators to sell more corn they don't have and

we will settle up in late August :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

not sure about the corn belt but up here in the northern plains if we had half the rain they have had it would take at least a week to dry, And that would be with warm weather. Doesnt the soil have to grey off a little bit so machinery can travel without getting stuck? I've heard stories all winter of not much if any field work done thru there. What gives? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

Mr Kluless would sometimes be better off if his comment section would be shortened to 10 words or less.  Something like this........."I really don't know what's going on beyond my backyard."

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

That may be a true comment, but WHO would pay to hear that?  I can say that as well, but I don't get the big bucks or media attention for that line.  After all, part of being an expert is the 70 miles away thing.  Dunno, in the internet age, it may need to be a couple hundred miles distant??

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, May 7, 2019

Good lord. I rarely admit I agree with Kenny. But he is right about the trade not knowing any facts about agriculture. They are just watch their trend following algorithms. They are sheep.
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