Floor Talk May 7

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 5 1/2¢ lower at $4.00 3/4. December futures finished 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.16. July soybean futures settled 25 1/4¢ lower at $10.11 1/2.  November soybean futures closed 19 1/4¢ lower at $10.18. July wheat futures ended 14 3/4¢ lower at $5.11 1/2. July soy meal futures finished $11.20 per short ton lower at $382.50. July soy oil futures closed 0.13 higher at 30.87¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.05 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 187 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.02. December futures 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.16. July soybean futures are 20 1/4¢ lower at $10.16.  November soybean futures are 16 1/4¢ lower at $10.21. July wheat futures are 14¢ lower at $5.12. July soy meal futures are $10.10 per short ton lower at $383.60. July soy oil futures are 0.13 higher at 30.90¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.85 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 173 points lower.

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.02. December futures 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.17. July soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $10.26.  November soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $10.29. July wheat futures are 6 3/4¢ lower at $5.19. July soy meal futures are $6.60 per short ton lower at $387.10. July soy oil futures are 0.03 higher at 30.80¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.56 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 208 points lower.

Mike

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Soybean and corn futures were lower overnight on concerns about the ongoing trade spat with China. The US delegation that traveled to Beijing last week reportedly made little headway in securing commitments from the Asian nation. Beans lost 7 cents, corn was down 2 cents and wheat dropped 9-10 cents overnight. Money managers, however, increased their bullish bets on corn and soybeans in the seven days that ended on April 1. Net-long positions in corn rose to the highest level in six weeks, according to the CFTC. In weather news it's going to rain in central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow, while in the northern Midwest it's going to be dangerously dry, the National Weather Service said. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things. 

West Texas Intermediate = up 1%.

Brent Crude = up 1.1%

Dollar = up 0.4%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock higher pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.

[northnd]

It is dangerously dry. Another HUGH problem is fertilizer availability. Virtually the whole state of North Dakota is out of NH3. In the last 3 days where I get my NH3 has received ONE semi load. This is occurring over the whole state. Dry fertilizer applicators are booked out two weeks. Seeding and hoping for top dress would take weeks before applicators could get to it. Even more acres of wheat are being shifted to beans. Not that the trade knows about, cares about or understands it.

[rayjenkins]

where does the nh3 supply typically come from??

[cborman11]

Way to start out the week,hope after a nice weekend off as usual for the traders you are good and rested to trade the farmer's livlihood and don't worry the farmer was in the field all weekend so you could.

[northnd]

Wherever they can get it. Typically from Canada, Beulah North Dakota or by rail from I am not sure. One CP train was left at stop point in Montana due to a weekend shift change and never did arrive. Sat there all weekend.

[illinifarmer]

Yep as far as I’ve heard wherever they can get it on hand. On a separate note @@@@ crooks what can happen now is anyone’s guess.

[roarintiger1]

Truly is amazing at how easy it is for these markets to go lower.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Sat at the probe for fifteen minutes at the e plant waiting for them to open this morning.

I was a line of one.

Next commercial elevator truck showed up as I pulled off scale.

Few more farmer types started to trickle in as I left.

Changed over to beans and went to the crush in Des Moines, 

No grain semis, in sight, wondered if they were open but there was a guy in the sign in shack.

Found two at the dump.

Same exact story at 4:30 with second load. A Few were trickling in at quarter to five as I left.

All were commercial plates except me. Started to know how the Maytag repairman used to feel.

Rain delay is temporarily over, terrorized the weeds in a small field , went got the planter, done just before dark.

Lots of fields with itsy bity corn plants showing.

Long day see you guys tomorrow.

[timetippingpt]

It is the first week of May gents, and with the forecast IF it fulfills, we will get the crop planted. Planted a few days late, but it  isn't going to be June 1st for goodness sake. 

The specs have bid corn up since January, buying over 2.5 Bil bushels, going right into the normal seasonal high. Statistically, it is very likely that this is a pretty good time to sell some grain. A 90 cent rally for using the bins is statistically a good time to part with the old stuff that is getting musty in the bins. 🙂  Paid for the bin in one year.

I'm still super bullish corn and pretty bearish beans, but a normal return to normal volatility, should get corn moving up and down at least 20 cents a week.

Oldest game in the business is to sell a Friday rally during planting season, worked as usual, quick 25 cents in bean and a nickel in corn.

65% done here as we kind of drag our feet to spread out the planting window a little bit. No rain since 4/26 in this area.The area is 90% done corn and 75% done beans fwiw. (remember IN never counts, just a fact)   Yes, I'm saying our area planted 90% of the corn crop in 7 days. Over-equipped to the max for many.