Floor Talk, November 1, 2018
Harvest prices for crop insurance are out $3.68/bu for #corn $8.60/bu for #soybeans (down $1.56 bu), according to the USDA RMA.
At the close:
At the close, the December corn futures finished 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.66 3/4. March futures ended 3¢ higher at $3.78 3/4.
January soybean futures closed 30 1/2¢ higher at $8.82. March soybean futures closed 29 1/4¢ higher at $8.94 1/4.
December wheat futures settled 7 1/2¢ higher at $5.08.
December soymeal futures closed 7.00¢ per short ton higher at $313.40. December soy oil futures closed 0.30 higher at 28.32¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.73 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 207 points higher.
At 9:00am, the December corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.63. March futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.76.
January soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $8.55. March soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $8.68.
December wheat futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $5.07.
December soymeal futures are 0.20¢ per short ton higher at $306.60. December soy oil futures are 0.21 at 28.23¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.14 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.
Also, the markets are higher in part from President Trump's tweet Thursday stating that he just got off the phone with China's President Xi. Trump was quoted as tweeting that he had a "long and very good" conversation with China's President Xi." There was a heavy emphasis on Trade.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the U.S. soybean exports have slowed to the point that the annual projections cannot be met.
“The USDA will have to decrease the annual export sales projection on soybeans due to the sluggish start,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.
Also, China has bought a record amount of soybeans from Brazil, in 2018. China's September soybean imports were up 28% on-year, according to General Administration of Customers.
USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday.
Corn= 399,400 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000-900,000mt.
Soybeans= 455,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-750,000mt.
Soybean meal= 321,700 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-300,000 mt.
Wheat= 582,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-500,000mt.
Re: Floor Talk, November 1, 2018
I picked the brain of a favorite source, in Chicago, today. I asked about advice given, via tweet, suggesting that farmers should consider selling if they have January bills.
"It's a moronic statement and a conflict of interest for a cash grain trader to be promoting a farmer to sell grain at what has been historically low basis levels for beans. Sonny money is providing cash flow.
This sounds like a millienial tweet from a cash grain traders who has been in the business a year.. the problem is if he is at an elevator he is going to have the same clients /farmers every year.. why burn your bridge by trying to take advantage of the situation..
Soybeans are going to 7.50 or 9.50 depends on trade. Meanwhile, the USDA is rightly earmarked emergency money of $1.60 to cover basis and flat price losses. I told farmers that I know to hold.. and plant less beans next year, if they have too. They may get paid on subsidy and prices, if the trade conflict gets resolved.
The "advice" given is stating the obvious and help to know one."
What say you?
Re: Floor Talk, November 1, 2018
I said it out of jest more than anything. Regardless of our differences in this forum I think we all provide information and insight to each other. Cheers to a good day for both of us!