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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk November 12

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At 3:15pm:

USDA Crop Progress Numbers:

 

Corn=84% harvested vs. a 97% year ago pace and a 5-year average of 78%

 

Soybeans= 91% harvested, compared to last year's pace of 95% at this same time and a 92% five-year average.

 

 

Surprised? It looks like harvest could go to Thanksgiving, given the wet weather delaying any harvesting this week.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures contract closed 2 1/2 cents lower at $4.32. The Nov. soybean futures contract finished 11 1/4 cents higherat $13.19. Dec. wheat futures finished 1 cent lower at $6.45 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $5.60 per short ton higher at $427.70. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.33 higher at $40.75.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cents lower at $4.33. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents higher at $13.21. Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/4 cents higher at $6.47 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.40 per short ton higher at $427.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.54 higher at $40.96.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.62 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

USDA releases Weekly Export Inspections: Looks like corn and soybean inspections have been revised downward.

 

Source: USDA
                    Grains Inspected and/or Weighed for Export
                                 (1,000 Bushels)
 
Grain                --------Week Ending--------    Current     Previous
                11/08/13   11/1/2013   11/9/2012  Market Year Market Year
                                                    to Date     to Date
BARLEY                38          32           4       3,060       5,451
CORN              16,701      31,356       9,463     223,410     168,208
FLAXSEED               7          38           3          73          11
MIXED                  0           0           0           0           0
OATS                   0           0           0          82         418
RYE                    0           0           0           0           4
SORGHUM              463       1,243       2,592      27,893      22,314
SOYBEANS          79,697      80,471      64,661     418,142     435,827
SUNFLOWER              0           0           0           0           0
WHEAT             12,228       8,911      10,458     610,640     427,311
Total            109,134     122,051      87,181   1,283,300   1,059,544
 
    Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, barley and
flaxseed; September 1 for corn, sorghum, soybeans and sunflower seeds.
Includes Waterway Shipments to Canada.
 
               Soybeans Inspected and/or Weighed for Export
                by Port Area and Country of Destination
                    Report in Week Ending Nov 8
                            (1,000 Bushels)
Seaway
China Main  2545
 
Toledo
Canada               726  Netherlands         1625
 
N. Atlantic
China T               19  Indonesia            242
Malaysia              85  Thailand              85
Vietnam               19
 
S. Atlantic
China Main            61  China T              190
Malaysia             132  Russia              1212
Thailand              62
 
Mississippi
China Main         34103  Japan               1151
Korea Rep           1927  Malaysia             884
Mexico               687  Netherlands         2572
Spain               2135  Thailand            2646
 
N. Texas
China Main          1804
 
S. Texas
China Main          2100
 
Columbia R.
Bangladesh          1980  China Main          13730
Philippines          284
 
Puget Sound
China Main          4821
 
Interior
China Main           509  China T              1232
Indonesia            464  Japan                  37
Malaysia              25  Mexico               1738
Thailand             302  Vietnam               108
 
Total                                         82242
Includes shipments to Canada.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cents higher at $4.36. The Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 4 cents lower at $13.12. Dec. wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $6.49 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.40 per short ton higher at $422.50. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.44 higher at $40.85.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.01 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 116,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14.

--USDA announces Tuesday that an 'unknown' bought 35,000 tons of U.S. soyoil.

--China's Nov. Soybean imports are estimated at 5.95 mmt vs. 4.53 mmt. in October, says the Chinese Ag Minister.

--Russia's grain harvest is expected to have reached 92.6 mmt this year, vs. 73.3 mmt last year. Quite the jump!

--FC Stone Intl. sees Brazil's 2013/14 soybean crop at 88.5 mmt vs. its October estimae of 87.9 mmt.

--FC Stone Intl. reported in its daily wire to customers: "The USDA’s corn export bump in last week’s November S&D report now has the U.S. exporting 1.4 billion bushels, or 35.56 million tonnes, of corn in 2013/14; that’s nearly double last year’s tally now, but still the smallest export figure in the last 20 years."

Mike

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At 7:50am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.34 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen lower, after hitting another high yesterday.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

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8 Replies
farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

What's the expectation on the fuels standards/ when will it be announced?
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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

farmerguy89,

 

Last I heard was January. I will look into it again for any update.

 

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

On The Wheat Front:

 

Luis Veiria, Agriculture.com's freelance reporter in Brazil, files this note this morning:

 

 A survey authored by Leandro Pierbattisti, an adviser of the Federation of Stores of Cereals, an organization from Argentina, says that the lowest wheat output in Argentina in over 100 years has resulted in less exports of the grain to Brazil. The United States has exported 2.7 million tons of wheat to Brazil, while Argentina shipped 2.5 million tons to its neighbor until October 17th. Brazil is the second largest importer of wheat in the world to Egypt with 5.24 million tons imported yearly.
Pierbattisti projects that the United States will sell over 3 million tons to Brazilians this year. The Argentine share over the Brazilian wheat market was 91 percent until 2006. It dropped to 65 percent in 2011. And fell again to 36 percent this year season. The survey blames the trade of policies of the country for the decline.

 

Thanks Luis.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

farmerguy89,

 

UPDATE: First off, I was way off by saying January was the timeframe of an official announcement.

Actually, the fuel standards announcement could come as early as today. For sure, the fuel standard announcement is expected in November. And the talk is that the EPA is going to stick close to that leaked document that showed the agency lowering the mandated amount of ethanol having to be blended into gasoline. So, the consensus is that the news will be bearish for the corn market. If an announcement is made today, we will post the information.

 

I hope this helps.

 

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Other big one that I posted at agrosouth-news.com:

 

Brazil sets new record of corn exports


The year has not come to an end yet, but the Brazilian exports of corn are already a record. According to numbers of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, exports summed 20.8 million tons from January to November 10. In 2012, when a record was set, the country had shipped 19.7 million tons.

Paulo Molinari, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, a consultancy, told Reuters in an interview that the output, even though is significant, does not represent huge recent sales. “What we are shipping right now are not new deals, but deals set long before…The shipments in January and December will drop significantly. Sales were good because international prices were good”, explained Molinari.  The USDA has indicated last week that the United States will retake the position as the world’s largest corn exporter this year.

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Wind
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Mike,

  Does the ethanol industry have to stop producing when they hit the mandated amount?  The ethanol industry should be in a position where mandates are not needed.  Demand  for the product should carry the day.  At what $1.70 a gal? You would think some how demand would climb beyond the mandated amount.  What I'm trying to say is that if the EPA lowers the mandated about of ethanol having to be blended into gasoline, should not effect the amount of ethanol produced if we sell the product right. 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

from what I heard, not likely to be much mkt reaction on ETOH news - 2 reasons.

 

1. margins are smokin' --yes mkt will determine how much is produced.

2. powerful lobbyist will mount a massive counter offensive on ANY proposed cutback - then it gets tied up in court for HOW LONG.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Mike,

 

I confirmed with cmegroup that Friday (report) marked a record breaking -volume traded- day for Corn.

 

685k+ contracts traded.

 

...eclipsing the old record set on a day in November 2010!

 

c-x-1

 

FWIW, Mon was no slouch either, making the 2 day total volume traded = 1,192,603 contracts.

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