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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk November 12

At the close:

 

 

The December corn futures settled 4 cents higher at $3.77 3/4 per bushel.

 

 

 

January soybean futures finished 16 1/4 cents lower at $10.47 3/4.

December wheat futures settled 17 1/2 cents higher at $5.42 3/4.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $5.60 per short ton lower at $395.00; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.65 lower at $32.27.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.21 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $3.77 per bushel.

 

January soybean futures are trading 14 1/2 cents lower at $10.49.

December wheat futures are trading 17 3/4 cents higher at $5.43.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $8.80 per short ton lower at $391.80; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.30 lower at $32.57.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.

Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Senior Grain Analyst, says the soybean market turning weaker is the big surprise.
“Wheat market is trading off new Ukraine fears and the heavy Fund short in the market.  Corn is trying to decide if it wants to follow soybeans or wheat and remains stuck in the middle,” Meyer says. 
He adds, “The soybean complex is the big story today, with epic falls in both meal and beans causing this reversal.  Record gross commercial short in meal against a record gross Fund long.  That usually doesn’t end well for the speculators.”
That said, we’ve seen these negative price movements in soy recently only to be shocked by next day reversals, Meyer says. 
“It’s a very difficult market to pin down given the time of year.  Today’s meal weakness has a lot to do with rumors of Argentinean imports coming into Wilmington, Delaware to satisfy hog feed demand.  While not confirmed, Argy meal is $70/MT cheaper than U.S. So, someone is sending a message to the market that meal is overpriced.”
Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says that it looks like the funds are covering some positions in the beans, meal, and wheat. 
“They have been notably short wheat and that is the strongest market on the board despite the strong dollar index.  It looks like meal and soybeans had a blow off top today with many stops getting triggered.  Haven't heard anything about meal basis yet today but that is the sole thing we are watching for market direction,” Johnson says.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

FYI: November soybean futures expire Friday.

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

The December corn futures are trading 4 cents higher at $3.78 per bushel.

 

 

 

January soybean futures are trading 10 cents higher at $10.74.

December wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $5.35.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $8.50 per short ton higher at $409.10; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.27 higher at $33.15.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.36 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 6:40am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher and wheat 8-10 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.46 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen lower, with the last of the 3rd Quarter earnings expected.
World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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13 Replies
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Mike, is Brazil having something to do with this bean rally? Just saw some info on the forecast -- it's wet in some parts of South America, but getting dry in the southern parts of that country. And, with a mostly drier forecast for most of the next couple of months, those dry areas could be hurting if they don't get a drink. Here's a little more on it. 

 

Think this market can sustain these gains for a while? What are your folks in Chicago saying on that?

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Re: Floor Talk November 12

I am wondering the same thing. Didn't sell my beans yet but sure thinking about it.
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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

treefmr,

 

What is your local basis? I wonder if basis will follow the futures market?

 

What are other folks' basis, as far as that goes? I'm hearing farmers are keeping their bins shut, while the end-users are clamoring for beans. I think the rub is when the end-user wants them, right? They want to price them now but don't want delivery until next month or two? Is that about right?

 

Mike

 

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Re: Floor Talk November 12

Basis IL -- corn -35 soybeans -10 probably why most guys holding off for now. Not to mention corn still coming in wet add the basis, moisture, and storage docks farmers really don't stand a chance accepting under 3$
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Mike what is the chance that the market just overdosed on the USDA "projection" Tour this summer??  Along with a less than perfect production year?  And very limited carry from the drought years.

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wcmifarmer
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Beans -.35 November -.25 January

Corn -.40 November. -.48 January
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wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Seems to me that Palouser gave us a heads up on the wheat situation a while ago

Re: russia and Ukraine fall wheat plantings etc.

I don't remember the details, but looks to me that anybody looking to price wheat

and took some time to let the news become more widespread, would have some benefit, re: better price

Maybe somebody should give Palouser a great big thank you for the heads up

I don't have wheat but thank you Palouser, just the same

One never knows what or when the market will do something, but good info is very valuable

 

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Canuck5
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 12

You bet!  Thanks to Palouser.  I spend quite a lot of time researching and reading so I am as fully informed as I can be when developing sales strategies.  Palouser is one of the better sources of information out there!  He is often alert to issues before the guys who charge big fees for their "news" letters!  And as a mattter of fact, I believe he has a better intuitive sense of the market dynamics than the talking heads who get interviewed for this site or on the news channels.

Re: Floor Talk November 12

Nov/Jan beans -.50

Nov corn -.40, Jan corn -.43

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