Floor Talk, November 15, 2018
At the close, the December corn futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.67 1/2. March futures ended 1/4¢ higher at $3.78 1/4.
January soybean futures closed 5 1/4¢ higher at $8.88 3/4. March soybean futures settled 5 1/2¢ higher at $9.02 1/4.
December wheat futures settled 2 1/2¢ higher at $5.05 1/2.
December soymeal futures closed 0.30¢ per short ton lower at $305.40. December soy oil futures finished 0.12 higher at 27.69¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.26 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points higher.
According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol production averaged 1.067 million barrels per day (b/d)—or 44.81 million gallons daily. That is down 2,000 b/d from the week before. However, the four-week average for ethanol production increased to 1.055 million b/d—the highest average in 8 weeks—for an annualized rate of 16.17 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol were 23.5 million barrels. That is a 1.3% increase from the prior week.
At midsession, the December corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.69 1/2. March futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.80 1/2.
January soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $8.86. March soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $8.99.
December wheat futures are 4¢ higher at $5.07. December soymeal futures are 1.00¢ per short ton lower at $304.70. December soy oil futures are 0.06 higher at 27.63¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.38 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points lower.
At the open:
In early trading, the December corn futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.71. March futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.82.
January soybean futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $8.95. March soybean futures are 11 3/4¢ higher at $9.08.
December wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $5.06.
December soymeal futures are 3.40¢ per short ton higher at $309.10. December soy oil futures are 0.11 higher at 27.68¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the soybean market is benefiting from news of trade talk softening between U.S. and China.
“Corn has been feeling the pressure of the wheat market being down, and soybeans continue to find a little support with optimism regarding trade talks with China,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
Kluis added, “Even though trade talks with China are positive, we will still struggle to get a deal in place before the end of the year.”
Britt O'Connell. Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that soybeans have managed a significant rally off its October 31st lows.
“With hopes running high that a trade deal is on the horizon, traders have unloaded nearly half of the short positions that they had held at that time, currently carrying an estimated 45,000 contracts short,” O’Connell says.
Last Thursday in its monthly WASDE report, the USDA confirmed what we have already known about the U.S. soybean 2018/19 ending stoks, they're big, 955 million bushels.
“While we can't rule out more speculative buying, it appears that this is an opportune time to 'sell the fact', a new trade deal with China will not change the massive supplies that we have both nationally and globally,” O’Connell says.
Overhead resistance lies near $9.25 vs the January board, O’Connell says.
“Corn and beans have been a follower in the trade this week. With no fresh fundamental news to trade, these markets have been quiet and range bound. Moving forward corn will have to be cognoscente of where it is priced as compared to soybeans, so as not to buy too many acres as we move into the 2019 growing season,” O’Connell says.
Re: Floor Talk, November 15, 2018
Anyone looking at hedging some Dec 2019 corn? If the bean acres tumble and corn acres increase what will be the end result?
I personally think we can add 25-50 cents yet on Dec 2019 corn.......we shall see. There is lots of time to market 2019 crops yet.
Re: Floor Talk, November 15, 2018
I'm with jim ----- looking for 4.30 ---- locally we are $4.11 now for new crop at elevators so It is not a big reach an will just be a small start.