Floor Talk November 16

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 5 3/4 cents higher at $7.27. Jan. soybean futures contract settled 18 cents lower at $13.83. Dec. wheat futures settled 7 cents lower at $8.38 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.41 lower at $47.05. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $5.90 per short ton lower at $424.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.05 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.24. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents lower at $13.85. Dec. wheat futures are trading 6 cents lowerer at $8.39 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.38 lower at $47.08. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.90 per short ton lower at $425.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.

One analyst says, "The weekly export data Friday turned out bearish for the farm markets.
Corn saw the second lowest weekly sales this year and though wheat sales were up from the week prior, the week prior was the lowest number since may. Bean exports were better than last week but like corn, bean exports last week were the lowest in three months.
"We also saw a cancellation of 346,000 mt from a 'unknown' country . The trade will fear its China canceling previously purchased US beans, with intent to re-buy on South American ports," he says.
The EPA announcement to not lower any standards of ethanol into gasoline was a no brainer after Obama was re-elected, he says.
"Pres. Obama, since day one four years ago, has pushed forward his 22 mandates to increase the amount of ethanol per gallon of gas and other green measures of using less crude oil."

Mike

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At 11am:

Corn is now just 2¢ lower. So, the EPA news is starting to trim corn market losses. It looks like we are headed for a higher mid-session.

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Maybe the biggest market news of the day just cleared the wires. The story is that EPA denies ethanol waiver requests.A This should help the corn market trim losses, as corn trades 7¢ lower, soybeans 27¢ lower and wheat down 11¢.

What say you about the BIG news?

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 9 cents lower at $7.12. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 24 cents lower at $13.77. Marchwheat futures are trading 7 cents lowerer at $8.53 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.55 lower at $46.91. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $7.90 per short ton lower at $422.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.82 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:40am:

The markets have yet to trim losses, following the Export Sales Report: Beans are down 19¢, corn down 5¢.

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA releases bullish soybean and friendly corn Weekly Export Sales Report Friday.

Corn=312,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 150-400,000 mts.
Soybeans=585,200 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 200-500,000  mt.
Wheat=314,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 200-400,000 mts.
Soybean meal=234,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 100-
200,000 mts.
Soyoil=21,000 vs. the trade's expectation of 20,000-50,000 MTs.

The kicker is, there is news that China cancelled 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans. The market is trying to figure out if those cancellations were noted in last week's report or not. But, today's report is certainly friendly.

--Also, S. Korea bought 110,000 of new-crop South American oil, the Dow Jones Newswire reports.

Mike

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At 7:20am:

Early calls:  Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 13-16 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower. The USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30am CT. The report could change the directions of the Early Calls.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.20 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower after disappointing Jobless Claims Report yesterday and ahead of today's October Industial Production data.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, and Europe's stocks are lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[giolucas]

Mike,

Wake up late?  

[ECIN]

Hey giolucas , lol i thought that maybe the B- Team was going to post today , Be'N it's getting close to noon , lol

[marketeye]

Yes, but I'm using another excuse. I was waiting for the Export Sales numbers to come out. Didn't want to open my mouth until I knew the whole picture. 🙂   Does that work?

Mike

[marketeye]

ECIN,

It actually feels like 6pm. I've been up at various hours of the night, just shouldn't have laid back down that last time. Regardless, the start of the trading looks weak. But, maybe we gain gradaul strength from these friendly export sales. Or, do you think the trade is determined to go into the weekend hanging its head, because soybeans dipped below that psychological level of $14.00?

Mike

[ECIN]

For What it worth , and that's not much , will go in the hanging the head down mode . I think this deal with Greece and the Cliff has everybody very cautious . At least there money is safe in there pockets . With stks at record lows ? Friendly Export report ? What else could it be ? -- i know good weather in SA ? 's

[sixtysixx]

cancelled 10 cargoes? now see we are rationing supplies and didnt even know it! all we had to do was tank the market lol

[unlgrad]

All U.S or was some of the cancellations option origination.  why buy more today if you cancel?

[GoredHusker]

If my comprehension of the amount on a cargo is correct (60,000 mt), those cancellations have been reflected in the past two weeks of export sales.  Today between China and unknown which was more than likely China, there was just shy of six cargo loads cancelled.  Last week, the sales were relatively poor due to large cancellations.  In all reality, there's been over ten cargo loads reflected in the past two weekly export sales reports. 

I read somewhere for the week beans are down here over 4.2 percent while only being down 1.6 percent in China.  Maybe we've overdone things a tad in here?  The gap around the $13.88 mark has now been filled.  Next week's trade could be very interesting considering the low volumes that occur during a holiday week. 

[sw363535]

Better question,  Is there any confirmation of that cancelation rumor???