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sixtysixx
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

dumb question but here goes....why are cancellations not reported the same way sales are? the same exporters reporting sales have to be the ones receiving the cancellations, right??? or am I way the hell off on this? thanks

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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

Now we have the corn market underpinned with this EPA decision.  

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

This is classic Chinese tactics in this kind of market. Hit a wandering market w/ cancelations and try to rebuy lower - and buy additional also. Fundamentals don't apply as much as short term psychology . This has happened many times in the past 5 years or so. In the end I'll guess the ultimate quantity purchased is double the cancellations.
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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

I'll guess a 10-14 day period to confirm this. Maybe a bit longer based on the reporting intervals.
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Re: Floor Talk November 16

So who takes the hit on the cancellations or weren,t they priced yet.??

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

So after doing a little digging, nine cargoes of beans were shown in the weekly sales report last week being cancelled.  This week roughly six were shown.  Thus, there's been approximately 15 cargoes of beans cancelled the past few weeks.  However, the sales reports show the net.  Even with the cancellations, sales are still running above what is needed to meet USDA predictions.

 

According to Pro Farmer, the country cancelling must pay a fine when it does so.  They said the fine was much cheaper than what the Chinese have saved by cancelling.  I'm going to hit my suppliers up to see what kind of arrangement I can make with them on purchases and cancellations. I think a ten dollar per ton fine sounds about right when fertilizer falls a hundred bucks a ton.   

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booked
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 16

Ok, so who gets the FINE?

Inquiring minds would like to know.

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 16 Cause it's sunday and I can!

Just would like to point out the hypocrisy of all the free marketers out there who have consistently screamed that the Corn ethanol mandate is just a free market tool.

 

Look at the corn market on Fri,. the Market was taking it lower.  Yep free trade was saying

Hey this corn is to high priced.

 

Than the obummer administration stepped in and said thanks to Iowa for voting for me so lets not lower your cash cow the RFS.

 

Yep you corn farmers are really on the Government T i t now!

 

And the evidence now clearly States it is all about the mandate.

 

Glad to see None of the free market Republicans on here decried the lining of their pockets by this fascist move by big brother!

 

 

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farmer46
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 16 Cause it's sunday and I can!

The RFS does not mandate Ethanol.  RFS mandates renewable fuel use.  RFS2 lays the foundation for achieving significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions from the use of renewable fuels, for reducing imported petroleum, and encouraging the development and expansion of our nation's renewable fuels sector. 

 

I think the people that believe in gobal warming are able to use the White House power to control RFS more than some corn farmers.  I don't believe any sector of the US is part of a free market, including the dairy sector.

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 16 Cause it's sunday and I can!

Technically you are right. However how much did switch grass futures go up? 

 

And Dairy is much more free mkt than we were 3 months ago now.  And I think we will continue to be.  Cow calf guys are absolutly free mkt.

 

BUt you didn't address the nice correlation we saw on Fri.

 

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