Floor Talk November 19

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 11 cents higher at $7.38. Jan. soybean futures contract closed 11 cents higher at $13.94. Dec. wheat futures finished 4 cents higher at $8.57 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract finished $0.84 higher at $47.89. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended unchanged per short ton lower at $424.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 176 points higher.

Mike

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At 1:45pm:

The farm markets remain double-digit higher.

One analyst says, "Two things normally happen on a holiday shortened week that also comes at month-end. First, we see one big up day as shorts cover risk and one big down day. Month-end balancing by funds and speculators cover risk. When the market closes Wednesday it doesn’t re-open until Friday at 9:30. So there are essentially only two hours and thirty minutes of grain trade. Traders have a lot to squeeze in. Today's action brought  short-covering on two issues. One, bullish sentiment from Friday's EPA announcement that there would be no change in the current ethanol to fuel mandates. And two, outside markets all were sharply higher pulling up grains on fear of war outbreak in the Middle East. Look for Tuesday to reverse and long take coverage with a choppy two-sided trade Wednesday," he says.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 12 cents higher at $7.39. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 10 cents higher at $13.94. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $8.46 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.90 higher at $47.95. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.10 per short ton lower at $424.50.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 176 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.32. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents higher at $13.97. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $8.58 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.76 lower at $48.17. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $421.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 152 points higher.

Mike

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At 5:45am:

Early calls:  Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.22 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, with favorable talks that Congress will reach a deal to avoid the $600 billion fiscal cliff. Plus, Greece aid is looking more likely to be approved.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[ECIN]

Sorry here Mike --- But i just have to ask ---- it is early --- was you up again all night , and just stayed up this time ?? LOL BTW Good morning !

[marketeye]

Yep. You're catching onto me, ECIN. 🙂

The good news is that it looks like higher markets, to start this morning.

Here's what I'm hearing:

--Ukraine's wheat ban on the horizon.

--Planting delays in Brazil.

--End-users are short-bought. So, they will have to buy at some point.

--Short trading week. So, traders will get the 'goodie' early.

Mike

[ECIN]

Mike I have been reading the same thing on Brazil -- But the news I have not heard much on is as it get's latter and latter , they are running out of time to plant there second crop --- corn ! Will that be a player down the road ?? On the Ukraine -- boy they have been kicking that can down the road for awhile , lol

[jrsiajdranch]

Yesterday Dad and I went out and checked our Rye fields.  They were planted in Late Sept. they got a little rain and had good emergence.  The Knolls and any place a little sandy are starting to die from lack of moisture.  With these warm temps keeping the rye from going dormant  we may lose up to a third of it by the weekend.  We really need some serious rain here in NCIA. There is already about 10-15% that is gone.

[marketeye]

jrsiajdranch,

I think you are right on. This drought is not going away. The moisture that really helps, for nex spring, needs to come before the winter freeze, from I've always heard fom moisture experts. We're days away from the month of Dec., with Mr. Freeze capable of showing up anytime. Missouri River levels are worrisome, jr's area is still dry as are many areas of the western Corn Belt. And get this, despite continued drought conditions, I just talked to a guy that puts in tile. He says he's as busy as he can get, right now.

This drought can't be talked about enough, I believe.

Mike

[highyields]

Just to add to the drought story, we had 4.5 inches of rain in the month of october here at home, I have been digging in a few fence post and its dry all the way down.   Just a little mositure right at the surface.   I even dug some in for the corners in the corn stalkes, nothing there either. 

[ECIN]

Well it's not much better here in Indiana , tiles are not running , cricks are still dry as a bone , neighbors had to dig a new well last week = old one dryed up , Large hog farm just down the road is trucking in water , they have 7 deep wells and are down to 3 wells , they pump out of one , one day and then rest it for a couple days so it will recharge . We may not show up on the drought map as extreme , but boy's it is still dry here .

[floydboy]

Too much rain is most certainly NOT the cause of planting delays (real or otherwise) in Brazil right now.

Rains that fell last night in Rio Grande do Sul (mostly under a half inch, though one spot had nearly an inch) were really their first this month and had to be considered welcome for an area that dries out so fast.  Good rains for RGDS as well as Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana for this coming Thursday night to Saturday night will be welcomed for all of that area. Rains further north in Brazil have been mostly above normal this month in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia but have not been excessive and certainly have been welcome for an area that was drier than normal in October.

[marketeye]

floydboy,

Port congestion in Brazil is another reason for higher markets today.

Mike