Posts: 3,977
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Floor Talk November 20

[ Edited ]

NOTICE: CME Group Holiday Trading Hours:

Wednesday= Regular hours.

Thursday=Farm Markets will be closed.

Friday=9:30am CT start and a 12:00pm Close.




At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract settled 4 cents higher at $7.42. Jan. soybean futures contract finished 18 cents higher at $14.12. Dec. wheat futures ended 3 cents higher at $8.45 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.43 higher at $48.32. The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $5.00 per short ton higher at $429.60.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.




At 1pm:

Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management LLC President, says the markets have bounced from the 2/3 speedline support in the  Dec 2013 corn, and are back above round number support in beans ($14) due to increased Chinese purchases. "China also halted their reserve sales since the sale price was below the new crop support price. That could result in additional need for imports. A weaker dollar was also aiding commodity prices in general.  We are seeing some profit taking in gold and crude oil from their pops on Monday."




At 10:45am:

In early trading, the Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.44. Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $13.99. Dec. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.47 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.23 higher at $48.12. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.40 per short ton higher at $426.00.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points lower.




At 6:15am:

Early calls:  Corn mixed, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.


Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$1.22 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, as investors react to Moody's stripping France of its Triple-A credit rating. Housing data is going to be released this morning too.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are mixed, and Europe's stocks are lower.


More in a minute,




Posts: 3,977
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Re: Floor Talk November 20

[ Edited ]

Hello everyone,

Yesterday, I had a chance to interview some reporters and ag economists from Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil. I plan to post the video interviews yet this week on

In the meantime, I learned from the Ukraine ag economist, among other things, that the wheat ban will be implemented, for sure, on Dec. 1. He also mentioned that Egypt has announced it will not buy milling wheat from Ukraine next year. But, he says they made this claim two years ago and came back and bought. So, he's not totally convinced. On Russia's possible grain ban, he says that counry is very hard to read.


Meanwhile, it's interesting that FC Stone Intl mentioned this in their Tuesday morning wire to customers: Ukraine’s Ag Ministry is reporting a record export pace as traders try to ship out grains ahead of the likely wheat export ban on December 1; total grain exports from July 1—Nov 19 stand at 10.72 MMT, including 5.17 MMT of wheat, 3.73 MMT of corn, and 1.67 MMT of barley.


In Argentina, though the country suffered floods for the early stages of corn and soybean plantings season, the past two weeks have been very dry and moisture is needed for some areas. The market advisor says Argentina's corn and soybean production will be lower than the USDA's current estimates.


In Brazil, the Gazeto do Povo newspaper reporter files this report:

Planting progress in Brazil for both soybeans and corn.
In Paraná, ninety seven percent (97%) of corn area is planted, and 94% are considered in good condition until this moment.
Soy has eighty one percent (81%) of the area planted, what represents 3.6 million hectares until last week. By this moment, in both cultures there is no big problems, on farmers evaluation.
In Rio Grande do Sul, other important producer in southern of Brazil, the beginning wasn't so fine. The early starters , who seeded first, had to replant corn in some areas BUT in some cases farmers didn’t have time to do it, so they changed directly to soy. The rhythm of planting is slow compared to Paraná, for example, so they will have to run in order to conclude soy planting in time.
In Mato Grosso, an important producer in west of Brazil the planting progress is happening without problems. Until last week, 77%of area was planted, what represents 6.0 million hectares. The rhythm is considered reasonable by producers, and the prediction is that by the and of month the plantation will be concluded. Farmers believe that this year for sure will be better than the last.
Weather in Brazil (As of Nov. 19)
This is an interesting situation here, cause the weather predictions has changed in the last few weeks. At the beginning of planting, farmers and weatherman were more confident about the El Nino happening with weak or moderate intensity. In Brazil, this means a very favorable condition for plants, because gives a guarantee of rain. This fact has a important effect especially after a event of La Nina that happened last year resulting on drought mainly in southern of Brazil.
However, the situation now is different. Specialists are saying that by this moment the condition is neutral, meaning no El Nino and no La Nina during the planting season.
In southern Brazil, for the next weeks, there is no prediction of intense rainfall, what make farmers a little bit concerned. The critical situation is on Rio Grande do Sul, where there is a hesitation about the productivity levels for soy and corn due to climate condition.
On the other hand, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, are in better condition. Farmers said that the missing of rain delayed planting start in two, three weeks, but this doesn’t bring any negative consequence, just in punctual cases.  
Port issue
The challenge today is for states that are far from the harbors, like Mato Grosso. The corn from this state is sent to harbors by truck and train. In some terminals that pass the corn from trucks to train, there is a big line of trucks waiting to load, because the volume that is been discharged is higher than the capacity to process it.


I hope this helps,