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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.69. March corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.79 1/4.

Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.02 1/4. March soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.16 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $5.11 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $2.00 per short ton higher at $301.80.

 December soy oil futures are 0.58 cents lower at 30.62¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:45am:

Soybeans and wheat have turned lower.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that corn and soybeans continue to trade in a choppy range today..

“Corn has continued to see sellers and is now considered very oversold. Demand has been very weak for corn, but with the recent slide in prices the U.S. is now becoming competitive with corn out of SA and the Black Sea region. Traders will begin to pay more attention to our weekly exports, hoping to see more purchases from that front,” O’Connell says.

Friday, the USDA will release it's Cattle on Feed Report. Traders are expecting October placements to come in 11.4% over last year.

While these are viewed as positive for the corn market, it appears we will need some additional positive catalyst to spark short covering from the funds, she says.

“Soybeans are having a hard time finding something positive to trade this week. Thoughts that 'Stage 1' could roll into next year and a better weather picture in S.A. has soured the market view. Soybeans violated key support yesterday and will need a close above the $9.13 per bushel area to prevent further selling,” O’Connell says.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.67 3/4. March corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.78 1/4.

Jan. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.08 1/4. March soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.22.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $5.21 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton higher at $302.00.

 December soy oil futures are 0.21 cents lower at 31.20¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the markets are searching for trade news.

“We could see the grain markets settle into stagnant conditions until we get the USDA's final 2019 Crop Production report (to be released January 10, 2020),” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Yesterday we had another day of disappointing lower trade for US grain prices. The markets are just looking for some positive news to trade on. Until then, no new news will keep us drifting lower. There was a rumor out on Wednesday that Phase One of the US/China trade deal may in fact not get signed until after the first of the year.”

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 788,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-900,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.51 million metric tons vs. trade’s expectations of 800,000-1.4mmt.

Wheat= 438,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-500,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 196,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of 100,000-450,000mt.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

The market you are refering to is not the market I care to sell to.....

Time to become a parasite and stop being a host.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

55 1/3 million bushels of beans sold... and this moves the

needle lower?

 

What was the load out?

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

Good someone is listening besides Mike.

Al ( mister expert)  spreads more rumors than he cares to listen to.

quote

“Yesterday we had another day of disappointing lower trade for US grain prices. The markets are just looking for some positive news to trade on. Until then, no new news will keep us drifting lower. There was a rumor out on Wednesday that Phase One of the US/China trade deal may in fact not get signed until after the first of the year.”  --- totally discounting a very good export report...... either a moron or a political action committee mole.

Why did Al need to counter the export truth with a repeat of rehash from a week ago --"rumor" ........ Al might be a good testimony in congress... about parasitical living.  AL just cannot deal with data and maybe he can't explain the markets that he needs so desperately to support his career?   

Who knows but he is not in my support group

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

I read these a few times a day, not sure why -- Mike's morning, midday and closing comments, plus other comments.  Illini's "crook" comments always make me smile while reading. 

The "rumors" on China, up or down, remain rumors until a deal is signed.  Or, as in the case with the deal with Canada and Mexico, perhaps until ratified (since that one was signed a YEAR ago).

Because the China deal has carried on for so long, with rumors up on possible deals, and rumors down when further delayed, the market should be basically discounting the rumors to where they mean nothing, at least until no longer a rumor.  In other words, the "rumor" is no longer meaningful, shouldn't be affecting trade, plus or minus.

Beyond that, it's just the continual reasoning that grain markets seem to always work themselves lower unless buoyed by positive sales/export news (beyond the anticipated) or PROOF that stocks or production are overstated (because it always seems that USDA big production/supply projections are assumed to be true, while shortfalls somehow seem to be recognized by them only after the proven fact, if at all).  The prevented acreage fiasco last spring and summer comes to mind (still not sure the acreage numbers are accurate), as does the lag in production problems that were obvious in 2012.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

wcmo,

on the prevented acres issue,  it seems like usda totally discounted that process as an insurance handout on acres that got planted to uninsured crop anyway..... Yet it was a great program "if the shoe fit".

I always have this voice in my head that says in the long term crop insurance was a facade of support worth nearly nothing to agriculture in the long run.  A game where the boundaries and goal post change position as needed.

A lot of usda's ideas seem like that when faced with evaluation.   Evaluation seldom gets done.  at least not publicly.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

True.  As a crop adjuster for many years, and still, I limit what I say about it for obvious reasons (although I do sometimes state an opinion or two, lol).  The PP stuff was a gift for those who obtained the benefit.  Personally, I planted part of corn quite late (June) -- just finished harvest late last week, still wet, but decent yield, over 200 net across the scales, I got lucky, but I'll take it.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019

 

MFP payments were direct deposited this morning.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 21, 2019


"Time to become a parasite and stop being a host."

....I would buy a T-shirt that said thatSmiley LOL

 


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From China with Love:

 

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