Floor Talk November 23

[marketeye]

Read About It: U.S. Farmers To Plant More Soybeans vs. Corn in 2016

What do you think? Is this going to be true in your neighborhood?

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At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.73. January soybean futures finished 6 3/4 cents higher at $8.64 1/4. 
March wheat futures closed 7 3/4 cents higher at $4.97 3/4. 
Jan. soymeal futures settled $2.90 per short ton higher at $285.90. Jan. soyoil futures closed $0.01 higher at $28.19.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.26 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points lower.

Matt Pierce, Futures International floor trader, says that value-buying is supporting the market. “I think people are looking at this as a value buy. Some short- covering which is why beans bolted higher. Inability for market to hold early contract lows promoted a technical reversal sentiment,” Pierce says.
He adds, “A small pop in front-end basis prices, across the curve, shows GULF business is growing against the flat price decline.”
The news of a new president in Argentina, though important, will take at least 90 days to really impact the trade, Pierce says.

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, the March corn futures are trading 1 cent higher at $3.70. January soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents lower at $8.56. 
March wheat futures are trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $4.95. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $0.20 per short ton higher at $283.20. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.01 higher at $28.19.  
In the outside markets, the Crude oil market is $0.94 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that light, pre-holiday trading makes for exaggerated moves. “Wheat is definitely the leader, probably due to last week’s surprisingly strong export sales report, which seems to reflect US wheat is finally starting to become more competitive globally on flat price.”
The lack of a reaction to the Argentine election in the bean markets could be a signal that the bear market is running out of steam, he says.
“This could be holding sellers at bay. Traders have not forgotten that we are right in the middle of the harvest seasonal low for corn, and with risk/reward metrics that do not favor bears because flat prices at or near the cost of production, it feels like sellers are taking the day off today.”

Mike

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News:

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Monday changes in destination of 251,000 tons of soybeans from unknown destinations to China for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 9am:

Argentina elected the opposition candidate for President. That opens the way for export tax relief for that country's soybean farmers. This will bring a flood of soybeans on the export market, thus the hard move downward today.

I'm calling this the South American Squeeze. Big Brazilian soybean crop, combined with a wall of Argentina beans. A real South American squeeze on the market.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents lower at $3.61.  January soybean futures are trading 11 1/2 cents lower at $8.46. 
March wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $4.93. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $3.60 per short ton lower at $279.40. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.20 lower at $27.98.  
In the outside markets, the Crude oil market is $0.19 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-8 cents lower and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.14 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, amid oil market and key GDP data, plus shortened holiday week.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[farmer46]

I believe some people are misreading the fallout of this Argentina election.  I believe, Argentina use of soybeans for meal is very high, and very few whole beans are exported. I believe farmers may now get the right to raise corn and wheat without export papers.  This could cause a change in crops and an decrease of soybean acres. All of this will take time, and no large changes will happen soon. 

[WCMO]

Am thinking that Argentina's soybean supplies have not been a secret, and that along with the anticipated actions of the newly elected president, have both already been priced into the futures market.   Therefore, instead of a negative price influence, if the newly elected president is unable to follow thru, or if significant amounts of the reported supplies otherwise do not hit the export market, then this should be a positive influence on prices.

[sw363535]

Mike,

Are US seed companies funding the publicity campaign concerning the "Avalanche" of Soybeans in Argentina....??

And the real question is can the pressure on the soybean market change the planting intentions of US Farmers...??

Missstated that question.........

Try again

And the real question is can the pressure on the soybean market change the planting intentions of US Bankers...??

I just don't think so.... I don't think whatever is coming from argentina is going to change how fast we are working through our supply...

There is no concern from Washington about supplies...... The US farmer is going to have to play the game the way it was designed, even though we never have.  Low prices are going to have to lower production.

We all chear for an open and free market........ until we get one going the wrong way......  This crop is being sold quickly.

[WCMO]

So, with decent sales numbers on beans, in order to keep a lid on bean prices, all we'll be hearing about will be all those big bean acres that are going to get planted for 2016?

[ECIN]

Ding - Ding - Ding - We Have a winner ! = WCMO

AND WCMO - Lets not forget the elections in ARGY - they will do away with the import tax and flood the markets - I personally think we should just part all our equipment and let they foreign - sob's feed the U.S. and a Double AND - THEY will Export more beef and guess who will import it ???

They may not but thats we will hear - lmao

[sw363535]

Both,   The argentine avalanche and the US acres that should get the south american crop bought cheaply and ram down the US price far enough to keep corn seed sales from hurting the big internationals too much.

The agriculture cash flow picture is looking like a wreck....  2016 will be worse than 2015....

A totally out of control wreck..  The slowest avalanche in world history along with more premature US record crops...with massive increases in acres...... When increases are shown in Brazil, I will buy it... but not in the US.

International Business Politics really wags the dog.... these days....