Floor Talk November 25, 2020

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures closed 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.20. March corn futures settled 5¢ lower at $4.27.

January soybean futures closed 7 1/4¢ lower at $11.84. March soybean futures ended 7 1/2¢ lower at $11.85 1/2.

March wheat futures finished 21¢ lower at $5.96 1/2.


Jan. soymeal futures closed $1.00 per short ton lower at $395.90.


Jan. soy oil futures closed 0.14 of a cent higher at 37.86¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.97 per barrel higher (+2.16%) at $45.88. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 172 points lower (-0.57%) 29,874 points.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the lower markets were a result of speculative traders selling their positions.

“We are at Thanksgiving with a day off tomorrow and a short day on Friday. Plus, the weekend and end of month follow. So, the funds and other specs are reducing the long positions. Weather is improved in southern Brazil and Argentina as well. Still, the weather is dry farther to the north in Brazil. No export demand on the daily system is not helping, either," Scoville says. At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.21. March corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.28 3/4.

January soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $11.85 1/2. March soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $11.86 1/2.

March wheat futures are 16 3/4¢ lower at $6.00 3/4.


Jan. soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $394.20.


Jan. soy oil futures are 0.40 of a cent higher at 38.12¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.64 per barrel higher (+1.43%) at $45.55. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 184 points lower (-0.61%) 29,861 points.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

Ag markets fall Wednesday.

Mike

[BA Deere]

I forget which guru was guest on WHO Big Show yesterday, but he said don`t pay attention to the thinnly traded markets all this Thanksgiving shortened week.  Could it be China is exploiting the lower volume by dribbling out some slightly bearish news?  Watch what the left hand is doing.  That doesn`t mean we won`t be going a little lower though, bears might get Thanksgiving and bulls get Christmas?

[roarintiger1]

We have a long way to go with this marketing gig.  Especially if there are already reports of a +80 basis with corn in some places.  History tells me that even if the traders drag their feet in pushing the markets higher, the basis can and will do the heavy lifting for those that physically need corn and soybeans.   

What programs will the new administration put out to curb higher food prices?  This will undoubtedly be interesting. Hang on folks, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. 

[BA Deere]

In China, corn`s 10 bucks, in Ioway it`s $4, it`s got some room.

[Hobbyfarmer]

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=963087&mid=8623511#M8623511

Since I can't post picts, graphs etc.

Some food for thought in this link.

Maybe instead of adversaries USA, Brazil, and Argentina should be partners in ag?

The problem is there are 3 clssses of people that can't be organized.

Fishermen

Farmers

The criminality insane.

[BA Deere]

I can`t speak for Brazil and Argentina, but in the US what we`ve got are a million or so of us Hermit Crabs climbing over ourselves racing to be lowest cost producer and the winners come back for "next year`s season" of the show.   Those of us that didn`t follow advice of the "smartest people in the room" selling out early and missed the drought & derecho had one of the better years of our careers. 

The profitable partnerships come to the "A,B,C, D grain companies"  to them price or ownership don`t matter, they get their cut in the end regardless.  We lock in basis and sell a call or whatever and think we do wonders what hustling a dime at the risk of losing 50¢.  

I about think that if we did organize, a law would quickly be passed against it.  When the NFO tried it in the 50`s, that was probably the last time that it could`ve worked.  Back then a "rich guy" farmed 240 and a poor guy a 80, the rich guy in many cases would`ve turned down renting or buying another 80 and the poor guy was happy with his 80.  Today the rich guy has 30,000 acres and wouldn`t think twice of renting another 30,000 were the opportunity present itself.  Then add in the local politics of 40yrs ago high school who was the first string quarterback and who married the prom queen   🙂