Floor Talk November 25
At the close:
At the close, the March corn futures finished 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.72 3/4. January soybean futures ended 11 1/2 cents higher at $8.75 1/4. March wheat futures closed 1 cent lower at $4.87 1/2. Jan. soymeal futures settled $1.40 per short ton higher at $285.30. Jan. soyoil futures ended $0.59 higher at $28.18. In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.32 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.
At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.71. January soybean futures are trading 12 cents higher at $8.75. March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.89. Jan. soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton higher at $286.10. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.38 higher at $28.97. In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.70 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points higher.
Mike North. President Commodity Risk Management Group, says positioning ahead of the holiday is driving the soybean market up.
“The rally appears to be driven more by those vacating the trade for the Thanksgiving holiday than anything fundamental. Technical resistance rests at $8.80 in Jan Soybeans. That should help to contain any further price runs today,” North says.
Helen Pound, Vice President Wedbush Securities Inc., Futures Division, says that multiple factors drive today’s markets up.
“I think there is a combination of strong veg oil futures, improving technical indicators in the beans and bean oil, improving feeding margins in China and uncertainty as to when/if the new Argentine government may implement reduced export taxes and a currency devaluation,” Pound says.
Corn is up 2 cents, soybeans are up 7 cents. Also, corn is being chewed up by the ethanol industry at record levels. According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 1.008 million barrels per day (b/d)—or 42.34 million gallons daily. That is up 33,000 b/d from the week before, a new all-time high, and the first time in history that weekly production has crested the 1 million b/d mark. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 984,000 b/d—the highest average since the week ended 6/19/2015—for an annualized rate of 15.08 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol stood at 19.6 million barrels. That is a 2.0% increase from last week and a 17-week high.
What do you think?
At the open:
At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.71. January soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $8.65. March wheat futures are trading unchanged at $4.57. Jan. soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton at $284.70. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.09 higher at $28.68. In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.73 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1 points lower.
On Wednesday, the U.S. sold some soybeans.
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 190,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2015/2016 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
At 7:51 am:
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.83 lower.
Wall Street = Seen higher, amid data dump.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk November 25
Hey gang. What do you think about this longterm outlook on fertilizer. I talked to one of my sources, today. And, what's your fertilizer price look like in your neighborhood?
Jeffrey Stafford, CFA, Senior Equity Analyst Morningstar,Inc.
Potash: Through the end of the decade, we expect potash capacity will growth faster than demand putting pressure on potash prices. New mines will likely be added in Canada and Russia.
Phosphate: Compared to potash, we expect a more balanced market in phosphate over the long run. Although we expect phosphate demand to grow more slowly than potash demand, little supply is being added to the market. Our expectation is for inflation-like growth in phosphate prices over the long run.
Nitrogen: We think nitrogen will be the slowest growing of the three primary macronutrients. In North America, cheap natural gas prices have led to growing supply, which should lead to a decrease in nitrogen imports into the U.S.