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11-28-2017 07:04 AM - last edited on 11-28-2017 02:05 PM by marketeye
At the close:
At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.36. March futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.49 3/4. Jan. soybean futures closed 3¢ lower at $9.93. March soybean futures closed 3¢ lower at $10.04. March wheat futures ended 1¢ higher at $4.29 1/4. January soy meal futures settled $3.50 per short ton lower at $325.80. January soy oil futures settled 0.39 higher at 34.13¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 180 points higher.
Cory Bratland, Kluis Comodities Chief Grain Strategist, says that the prices are under pressure due to mainly a lack of any new fresh data to trade on.
"We still have very large burdensome supplies in the US and the World. Yes there are some potential concerns with the South American weather but way too early in the season to rally on that as we cannot kill the crop this early. Much like we cannot kill the US crop in May. So with no new news we drift and we drift lower," Bratland says.
Michael Rusch, Regional Sales Director- Ag/Commercial for Stewart-Peterson, says that the corn market is dealing with the closing of the December futures contract.
“Currently the corn price is weak, as we flirt with our Dec low ($3.361/4)just ahead of first notice day of the Dec contract. Expect investors to roll short positions to the March contract- hopefully getting traders to step out, take gains and let market bounce,” Rusch says.
Obviously big crop and concerns over weaker than expected exports are pressuring the market, Rusch says.
“Funds are still net short in a big way. (Long tern this is a bullish position as on any signs of crop trouble or increased world buying in 2018 they have a lot to liquidate,” Rusch says.
For the soybean market, pressure seems mainly to be due to changing weather forecast in South America, with beneficial rains predicted in the driest areas.
“Overall, beans are still range bound in the big picture and finding solid support on some moving averages,” Rusch says.
In the big picture, both markets are consolidating and looking for a spark.
“Corn has less probability of moving lower, as it is on contract lows (which despite an ugly price, are still higher than last year’s Dec contract low). Beans have more room to potentially move lower as recent consolidation is mid-range for the year. Seasonal trend data on corn shows strong probability to bottom in early Dec,” Rusch says.
On Tuesday, USDA announced that export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2017/2018 was issued in error. The correct announcement is as follows:
--Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.36. March futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.50. Jan. soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $9.89. March soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $10.00. March wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.25. January soy meal futures are $4.30 per short ton lower at $325.00. January soy oil futures are $0.09 higher at 33.83¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 152 points higher.
In early trading:
At 9am, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.37. March futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.50. Jan. soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $9.89. March soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $10.01. March wheat futures are 1/2¢ higher at $4.28. January soy meal futures are $3.10 per short ton lower at $326.20. January soy oil futures are even at 33.74¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points higher.
Corn and soybeans were lower overnight after export inspections dropped week-to-week and year-to-year. Corn lost about 2 cents, soybeans were down about 4 cents and wheat was unchanged. Money managers reduced their net-short positions in corn last week while raising their net-longs in soybeans. In weather news, it's dry and windy and warm in parts of Arkansas, which about half its counties are under a burn ban, and in southern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma. Some rainfall, however, is forecast for parts of central Kansas today. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-november-28.
Brent Crude Oil = down 0.8%
West Texas Intermediate = down 0.7%
Dollar = up 0.2%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.
World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.
11-28-2017 01:23 PM
The word is drivel.
So the 250 wheat marketers are controlling the weather?
Let me ask you in all seriousness why do you continue to farm? Do you really think there is any chance to succeed in the kind of world you post about here?
11-28-2017 01:32 PM
11-28-2017 07:09 PM
Governments acting to secure supplies so there are not riots offer subsidies to their constituents to encourage production of certain commodities. But over time the market works. Unless we add value to our product in some way we are just commodity producers. And the price of any commodity is always near the long term cost of production over time.