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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk November 29

At the close:

At the close, the December corn futures finished 11 3/4¢ lower at $3.36 3/4, while March futures closed 9 1/4¢ lower at $3.49 per bushel. January soybean futures are 13 1/2¢ lower at $10.42 1/2, while March soybean futures closed 13 1/2¢ lower at $10.51. March wheat futures finished 7 3/4¢ lower at $4.08 3/4. January soy meal futures closed $4.00 short ton lower at $324.20. January soy oil futures are $0.35 lower at 32.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.82 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11:30am:

USDA Baseline Projection Report says:

 

Full details coming, but here's the upshot. "The short story is farmers cut back on 2017 plantings of the major U.S. crop by 2 percent, or 5.5 mln ac, with biggest changes being less corn (90 million) and wheat and more soybeans (85.50 million). Commodity prices remain at comparatively low levels."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the December corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $3.41, while March futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $3.52 per bushel. January soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $10.44, while March soybean futures are 11 1/2¢ lower at $10.53. March wheat futures are 5¢ lower at $4.11. January soy meal futures are $3.70 short ton lower at $324.50. January soy oil futures are $0.11 lower at 36.86¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.75 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Coming up at 11am, we will have the USDA Baseline Projections to pass along.

 

Also, tomorrow, ERS releases farm income statement and balance sheet estimates and forecasts three times a year, including February, August and November. These core statistical indicators provide guidance to policy makers, lenders, commodity organizations, farmers, and others interested in the financial status of the farm economy. ERS's farm income statistics also inform the computation of agriculture's contribution to the gross domestic product of the U.S. economy. During this webinar, economist Jim Williamson will provide the November forecast for 2016.

 

Join the webinar, tomorrow at 1:00pm, that may be eastern time, not sure.

 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/conferences/webinar-farm-income-and-financial-forecasts-november-2016-updat...

 

 

A lot of data popping up this week.

 

Mike

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At 9:45am:

If you missed it, the delayed CFTC Report showed producers and merchants shedding corn and soybean contracts. Meanwhile, managed money traders had a net week's position of adding corn contracts. Here are the results:

 

Disaggregated CFTC Report released on a delayed basis, yesterday, showed managed money traders getting less short corn, and longer soybeans.

Managed money traders cut over 25,000 net corn shorts for a net move of adding 28,700 contracts for the week ending last Tuesday, November 22.

For soybeans, managed money traders added a net 18,900 contracts, 5,100 soymeal contracts, and cut a net 1,900 soy oil. All of these moves were what the trade expected.
For both Chicago and Kansas City wheat, managed money added 20,800 Chicago wheat contracts and KC wheat moves were up 8,900 net in that category.

Producers and merchants recorded net loss in soyoil. However, those same traders added to their net corn shorts to the tune of 27,300 for the week. For soybeans, this group cut a net 17,200 contracts, and cut 13,800 soymeal and wheat contracts each.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the December corn futures are 5¢ lower at $3.43, while March futures are 5¢ lower at $3.53 per bushel. January soybean futures are 15¢ lower at $10.41, while March soybean futures are 15¢ lower at $10.49. March wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $4.11 3/4. January soy meal futures are $4.90 short ton lower at $323.30. January soy oil futures are $0.47 lower at 36.50¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.86 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points lower.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 29

Brazil Soybean Planting Update:

 

Here's a report from our counterparts at Successful Farming-Brazil and sfagro.uol.com.br

 

Sowing is already closed in Mato Grosso do Sul, but the state remains cautious due to lack of rainFor SF Agro (contato@sfarming.com.br)

The planting of the soybean crop 2016/2017 arrived on Thursday (24/11) to 83% of the area planned for Brazil, according to a survey of AgRural. The index is advancing ten percentage points in a week and is slightly higher than the 81% last year and 80% of the five-year average.The AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean production in 2016/2017 season at 100.4 million tons, an annual increase of 0.6% in planted area.

 

Sowing is already closed in Mato Grosso do Sul, but the state remains cautious due to lack of rain in some places, especially in the southern portion, which has been low and irregular volumes since the beginning of the harvest.

 

Dourados (MS), about 30% of the area is flowering and soybeans is advancing in some plots the cycle due to the lack of moisture and high temperatures. If the combination of warm and dry weather persists until the end of November, the productive potential will be affected.

 

The Northern Paraná also has felt the lack of more regular rainfall. In the region of Maringa, the plants are reduced in size and taking to close the lines. In the west, that earlier plan, 7% of the area is already in grain formation. There is no mention in losses yet, but soybeans must receive moisture in the coming days so that the expectation of good productivity is maintained.

 

Development of soybeans

Mato Grosso, in contrast, has received good rains and the crops are excellent. In the more advanced areas, which should already start harvesting in late December, the only fear is that there is too much rain at harvest. If the rain does not hinder, by the way, January must register record volume of Mato Grosso soybeans entering the market.

 

In Goiás, the Southwest crops also have good potential. The east, which had an early dry season, now receives good volumes of rain and planting goes well. Minas Gerais has also received abundant rainfall, and planting is being done in the rainy intervals. In São Paulo, the week was firmer time, but soil moisture is still good.

 

Also with good moisture, Matopiba follows with accelerated planting. Low volumes for the next two weeks, however, should result in a decrease in the pace of work. At the other end of the country, the producers of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina took advantage of the good weather of the last days and the rain forecast for the weekend to accelerate planting, taking the delay caused by excessive rain in October and early from November.

 

 

Story written by Darlene Santiago, Editor at Successful Farming-Brazil

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 29

Is there any connection between reality and the funds?  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 29

Futures is a water slide ride and the drops are breathtaking......   

 

"Managed money traders cut over 25,000 net corn shorts for a net move of adding 28,700 contracts for the week ending last Tuesday, November 22."

 

 

Is there an understandable explanation for this statement or is it just a comedy line.