Floor Talk November 3

[marketeye]

At the close:

The December corn futures closed 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.73 per bushel.

January soybean futures finished 19 1/2 cents lower at $10.29.

December wheat futures finished 5 3/4 cents higher at $5.38 1/4.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $16.30 per short ton lower at $372.70; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.77 lower at $34.03.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points lower.

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the weakness in meal market has folks selling.

"Corn selling due to weaker meal market, poor weekly export inspections number and some increase in producer cash sales over the weekend. Regarding the soybeans, it's just giving back Friday gains due to weaker meal market and strong dollar. But, the market is getting support from the 101 mbu. export inspections for last week.

Meanwhile, Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president agrees that the soymeal market is leading the other markets, right now.

"The meal spreads were weak from the get go last night and this spilled through the session today.  It brought Soybeans and Corn down with it.  Not a heave volume session, but enough to make you think like maybe meal and beans are topping out.  If so, corn would be next.  I guess some logistical issues remain, but the emotion seen last week is gone.  Plus, we are hearing that at least some end users are getting the meal now.  There was also talk that SE poultry and hog interests could buy cheaper in Argentina, although I have not been able to verify that.  But, just the suggestion shows that we are close if not there.  All in all, the large production makes it hard to think we can keep the beans and meal and even the corn up here.  Farmers will hve to sell something as they will run out of space.  The logistical problems might not fully go away but should improve.  I think that was the message of the market today."

Mike

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $3.71 per bushel.

January soybean futures are trading 18 1/2 cents lower at $10.30.

December wheat futures are trading unchanged at $5.32.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $5.50 per short ton lower at $383.50; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.69 lower at $34.11.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:55am:

If you missed it Friday, the CFTC Report showed:

Managed money funds= Added 19,500 net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (Oct 28). The trade's expectations were 6,000.

For soybeans, this same group dropped a net 9,500 contracts, compared to daily trade estimates expecting a 10,000 net gain.

Producers and merchants = Recorded a net loss of 27,000 contracts in corn, 20,400 in beans, net loss of 16,800 meal, 17,700 loss in soyoil, and 10,000 Chicago wheat.

What do you think? What are these numbers telling you?

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.74 per bushel.

January soybean futures are trading 8 3/4 cents lower at $10.40.

December wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $5.28.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $4.40 per short ton lower at $384.60; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.18 lower at $34.62.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.05 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Mike

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At 7am:

The USDA will announce this week its rates for crop insurance, based upon the October average corn and soybean prices.

To date, those average prices are December 2014 Corn = $3.49 November 2014 soybeans = $9.65.

Mike

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At 6:50am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.09 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen lower.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[BA Deere]

The "other site" is a buzz about a margin drop in corn today   http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/03/markets-grains-idINL6N0ST2L420141103 

from $1300 to $1100.  Apparently there was prior knowledge by some...and I don`t know a darned thing about this stuff, but "buying the rumour" could that have anything to do with the recent corn rally?  Now it`ll be back to reality?   I do know Gold get manipulated with monkeying with margins.

Anyway just throwing it out there for smarter minds than myself.

[marketeye]

Interesting point. I will try to find out what some of my sources think of  this, today.

Thanks,

Mike

[vandenplas]

CFTC numbers bearish on beans.