Thanks for the welcome guys! I am by far no means a expert but I have been with some pretty interesting people from abroad. I agree with MT that 15k/acre land maybe worth it compared to junk. There is no difference when we purchase equipment. The thing I saw abroad is there is really no land cost if you can find the right opportunity. Governors are willing to work with you to better their area. Granted you dont own the land but if there are no land cost isn't it worth the gamble? Our problem is that we are exporting our technology(wisdom,common sense,etc.) for practically nothing at the expense of all of us to make a buck. I am guilty of trying to do this also but that is the capitalism in all of us. I have talked with engineers with Deere and it seems their game plan is not here anymore but everywhere else. When you have nearly 70% market share in everything in this country how much more can you achieve? They will try to do the same in other areas for growth as will most other corporation that have that much market share. Why? $$$$$ They have all of ours now they are gonna try to get everyone elses. As soon as gmo tech is widely accepted over there Big M and P will be sending it to them at our expense. I may sound like a real downer but the amount of foreigners coming into these places on a daily basis looking for an angle is amazing. Speaking of land auctions some land sold south of me east of Aberdeen for $13k+ for three qtrs this is not IA,IN or IL. Does not make sense even if you have the cash but I'm not the smartest guy.
talked with some gents a year or so ago from the company above...........they had some interesting takes on land prices and world expansion........from an EU perspective...........
Mollisols (from Latin mollis, "soft") are the soils of grassland ecosystems. They are characterized by a thick, dark surface horizon. This fertile surface horizon, known as a mollic epipedon, results from the long-term addition of organic materials derived from plant roots.
Mollisols primarily occur in the middle latitudes and are extensive in prairie regions such as the Great Plains of the US. Globally, they occupy ~7.0% of the ice-free land area. In the US, they are the most extensive soil order, accounting for ~21.5% of the land area.
Mollisols are among some of the most important and productive agricultural soils in the world and are extensively used for this purpose.
and yes I also agree that the FSU has some very productive soils.........as good or better than NA and many more acres.......problem is two fold.........it is the equivalent of the CA/US border and north.......and government.....
this summer I talked with a fellow whos brother was in the Ukraine.......he had been there many years, was a farm manager of a livestock and row crop outfit......mainly dairy and beef along with row crops......he was also tied into CNH because of his education and background..........
talked to him for what seemed like an hour, but probably only 30 minutes..........take away I got........yes AG is good..........people are poor.........government is worse.........
I think the big picture is simple.........AG is the corner stone of society going back to the beginning of time........we will always find a way........that said demand on the earth to support and feed a growing pop is huge..........the US will be a leader.......the world will struggle but follow..........and at the end of the day.......here in the US we take for granted how good we have it.......even though we bitch and moan..........infastructure and efficiency are a huge advantage...........and will likely keep the US on top for many years or even decades to come............
that said.........peak corn is real...........and the next several decades will be marked by a resource war never seen before...........water first..........land second.........mineral third............
Excellent post MT. That map is very interesting. Sometime...
Excellent post MT. That map is very interesting. Sometimes we take things for granted, not realizing how good we have it!
nice post - informative. agree with your summary on resources - it is just beginning. Good to have you off the politics........
I am not so sure we are at peak corn at least for total bushels. two main reasons. I think genetics will keep ramping up the overall yield; I also think we will see a lot more marginal ground come into corn; there is still a lot of productive hay ground to be converted to corn; we could add quite a few million acres of ground that will grow good corn.
you have said in the past that it is all marginal ground that will be added and you are right, we are not adding an Iowa, but there will be some ground converted, tiled and irrigated that will be growing decent amounts of corn; I think that will add several million acres over the next few years. third reason is that overall farmers are doing a better job. seeing more good corn than ever; just like with the hog and dairy farms you don't have many poor operations left, the crop farms overall are doing a better job out of necessity and that trend will continue.
Peak corn - I say not yet.
That said, is not factoring in global warming and although I have strong opinions on that subject, I see it as a separate topic.
Resources you are hitting dead on - and that is why so much corporate money is moving into Ag land; it is a transformation that is happening quickly and more extensively than farmers begin to understand. crop farms are quickly going the route of hog, beef, chicken and dairy. corporate money is only accelerating that process. none of those are good developments for family farms as we know them, but they are reality.
The common wisdom on land purchases in Iowa that I have heard from and from a recent 30 years study in Illinois, show that neighboring farmers are buying farm land, not investors and not big ag companies.
The percentagage that is corporatate owned will change dramatically going forward.
I have not studied the trends yet as to % corporate ownership, but it will change.
Large farmers will dominate ownership going forward. You see it in the heavy dairy areas - the large farms are just grabbing any and all land available.
concentration of ownership.
Land by no means will be as complete as the beef and chicken industry and will take longer, but it will happen - in my opinion.
Re: Floor Talk November 30
Corporate Agriculture Does Not Buy Land
If you look at chicken, turkey and swine integrators, you'll see that they don't like ot own land or the buildings. That gets them involved in all sorts of things like zoning, nuisance suits, irrate neighbors and so forth. They have it figured out that it takes a dedicated owner or committed operator on the soil to make it work.
I see big farmers getting bigger but the size is self-limiting and will seldom last more than two generations.
In the late '90s, I tlaked with a Cargill VP who told me they wanted to contract grain production but they didn't want to own the farms.