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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk November 30

At 2pm:

EPA Announces New RFS rule. EPA RFS Rule Monday:

 

--For next year, the ruling mandates 14.5 billion gallons of ethanol, higher than the EPA's proposal in May, but avbout equal with what the trade had expected.

 

On Monday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced raising the Renewable Fuels Standard, opening the window for more corn to be used for ethanol production.
EPA finalized the volume requirements and associated percentage standards under the RFS program in calendar years 2014, 2015, and 2016 for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel. EPA also finalized the volume requirement for biomass-based diesel for 2017.
For 2016 renewable fuels, the EPA finalized a ruling for 18.11 billion gallons to be blended into U.S. gasoline, above 166.93 billion in 2015 and 16.28 in billion in 2014.

Janet McCabe, Acting Assistant Administrator for EPA's Office of Air and Radiation, told a group of reporters, via a teleconference, this new rule boosts the use of biofuels.
“The biofuel industry is an incredible American success story, and the RFS program has been an important driver of that success—cutting carbon pollution, reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and sparking rural economic development,” said Janet McCabe, the acting assistant administrator for EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation. “With today’s final rule, and as Congress intended, EPA is establishing volumes that go beyond historic levels and grow the amount of biofuel in the market over time. Our standards provide for ambitious, achievable growth.”
“We must go beyond the blend wall,” McCabe says.
The final 2016 standard for advanced biofuel is nearly 1 billion gallons, or 35 percent, higher than the actual 2014 volumes, while the total renewable standard requires growth from 2014 to 2016 of over 1.8 billion gallons of biofuel, or 11% higher than 2014 actual volumes. Biodiesel standards grow steadily over the next several years, increasing every year to reach 2 billion gallons by 2017.

 

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 5 cents higher at $3.72 1/4. January soybean futures finished 8 cents higher at $8.81. 
May wheat futures closed 3 1/2 cents lower at $4.75 1/2. 
Jan. soymeal futures settled $1.50 per short ton higher at $285.30. Jan. soyoil futures ended $0.34 higher at $29.42.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.19 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 3 cents higher at $3.70. January soybean futures are trading 5 3/4 cents higher at $8.78. 
May wheat futures are trading 1 cents higher at $4.85. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $1.50 per short ton higher at $285.30. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.36 higher at $29.44.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.61 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 62 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group Senior Market Analyst, says that soybeans are the leader.
“I feel we are in a weather market.  No one is selling, not here and not in South America.  Argentina is not removing the export taxes all at once. So, the flow will be metered there, and now we got El Nino.
Scoville adds, “The crops are fine in Brazil, for now, but we went down on ideas of huge crops. So, any hiccup could create some buying.
The corn market is up on a lack of farm selling, plus El Nino, too, he says. 
“Wheat seems to want to base out here, but I am not real sure why.  Still low volume, but specs are short everywhere and covering up,” Scoville says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.69. January soybean futures are trading 4 cents higher at $8.77. 
March wheat futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.77. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $0.40 per short ton lower at $283.40. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.28 higher at $29.36.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.62 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points lower.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:15am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.30 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, amid choppy week expectations from last minute data reports, jobs and oil reports.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 

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8 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

RFS News could be released later today. It would be after the markets close. But, what do you think the EPA is going to announce?

I'm being told the neews may already be baked into the market. About 14 billion gallons of ethanol is expected to be the RFS level. The wildcard could be the biodiesel announcement, sources say.

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

Biodiesel folks thankful but not satisfied with RFS rule, Monday.

 

Grant Kimberley, executive director of the Iowa Biodiesel Board, issued the following statement, according to the Iowa Biodiesel Board:

“Compared to the initial draft proposal that flat-lined biodiesel at 1.28 billion gallons, today’s Renewable Fuel Standard announcement is a move in the right direction for Iowa, which has elevated itself to the position of a leading renewable energy producer. The biodiesel industry relies on the RFS as strong national energy policy to facilitate growth and stability in the face of centuries of fossil fuel dominance.

“While we are thankful for the improved numbers from EPA and the White House, they still fall a little short of what the industry had asked for and what the industry is capable of. This is especially true in light of the imports of subsidized foreign-produced biodiesel we’ve seen from places like Argentina and Southeast Asia. Yet, overall, we are still pleased with the modest increase and grateful to have more market certainty. In future years, we hope implementation of this policy will have clearer direction for our producers well in advance, and reflect actual production capabilities.

“With our state's 13 plants producing more than a quarter-billion gallons of biodiesel last year, Iowa stands to benefit the most from this policy as the nation’s leading biodiesel producer. Our industry supports thousands of jobs and economic development while replacing foreign oil and diversifying our fuel supply.”

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

I do view this as good news....we can use more of our
"Surplus".... Provide American jobs, cut down
On our reliance on foreign energy and maybe
Cut down on pollution.

We need to increase levels
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

el cheapo,

 

I'm surprised more folks didn't weigh in, on this topic. I think the corn growing and ethanol sectors should thank their lucky stars that EPA and or Congress didn't use a bigger knife on the RFS. All experts estimate that without ethanol, corn prices could look a lot different!

 

Mike

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

True Mike but without ethanol, corn production would look a lot different.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

Mike - to weigh in on the RFS debate here is like preaching to the choir.

What we need is a consortium of ag based companies, publications and advocacy groups

to join together, hire a nationally respected spokesperson(s) and get to work on

changing public opinion.  How about a Super Bowl commercial?

 

Every time I hear people spout off about the negative aspects of ethanol I simply

ask for the factual basis of their opinion.  Never have had anyone of these people

point to a credible study or government report to support their arguments.

But these days that doesn't seem to matter.  Look how Bill Nye has been attacked

since he started talking about GMO's after taking steps to better inform himself.

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

lsc76cat,

 

It's okay to voice your opinion. I appreciate your response.

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk November 30

Eagle eye I don't know what to tell you, seems
Everyone around here has fell asleep....I hollered
Girls! Girls!! Girls!!! And half of um just sat there.

Eagle eye....we may have a problem on our hands !
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