Floor Talk, November 7, 2019

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures closed 3 1/2¢ lower at $3.75. March corn futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.83 3/4.

Jan. soybean futures finished 9¢ higher at $9.36 1/4. March soybean futures closed 8¢ higher at $9.48 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $5.12 1/2.



December soymeal futures ended $6.70 per short ton higher at $305.60.

 December soy oil futures closed 0.32 cents lower at 31.43¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.01 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 240 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 4¢ lower at $3.74. March corn futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.83.

Jan. soybean futures are 9 3/4¢ higher at $9.36 1/4. March soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $9.49.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.14 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $300.80.

 December soy oil futures are 0.22 cents lower at 31.53¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.05 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 218 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the soybean market is up on strong export sales and the reports of progress in the China trade talks.

“Corn is down on lousy export sales and corn and wheat down on ideas of bearish reports tomorrow. Farmers are busy at harvest and specs are quiet or selling corn, I guess. We might get a bearish report, but we are factoring that in now so we could bounce tomorrow unless the report is real bearish. Volumes are low, so I don’t look for much to happen the rest of the day but corn could still sink a little lower,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.78. March corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.87.

Jan. soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $9.30. March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $9.43.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $5.18.



December soymeal futures are $1.90 per short ton higher at $300.80.

December soy oil futures are 0.18 cents lower at 31.57¢ per pound.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.96 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 172 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

--Export sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year; and

--Export sales of 133,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1 and soybean meal Oct. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 487,900 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-650,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.807 million metric tons vs. trade’s expectations of 600,000-1.2mmt.

Wheat= 360,600 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 3,900 mt. the trade’s expectations of 150,000-300,000mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA/WASDE Reports.

“What looked like a typical choppy trade day leading up to a USDA Crop Production report turned lower after an announcement that the US/China trade deal might not happen until December. We still remain very sensitive on the trade deal. Look for a choppy trade today as traders get positioned ahead of the Friday USDA report,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Basis levels for corn and soybeans remain firm. It is an especially good time to consider locking in some corn basis levels. As we get to the last 20% of corn harvest, we could see more bushels head to town.”

What say you?

Mike

[sw363535]

Curb your enthusiasm.   

Whats good weed going for in Denver?

oh yea.  That last 5 % yield may be huuuuuugggee.

and try to ignore export numbers —memory of real bushels fade faster than the suggestion of imaginary bushels.  

The folks who tell you what your words mean and if you said nothing, will announce what you should have said. 

Will  give you credit. 

[gurly3801539]

I didn't have a last 20%, well actually I didn't have a last 40% of my aph.

[sw363535]

the hint in this report is that at the end of this harvest all those below normal bushels farmers didn’t find...... usda will find for you.  

[sw363535]

My wife is having her colon scoped this morning.   She told callers it was a colostomy...    

Was she boosting the prayer chain or boosting circulation?

 Or reporting on phantom yields?

[wrightcattle]

---

@marketeye wrote:

At 8:45am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.78. March corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.87.

Jan. soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $9.30. March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $9.43.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $5.18.



December soymeal futures are $1.90 per short ton higher at $300.80.

December soy oil futures are 0.18 cents lower at 31.57¢ per pound.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.96 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 172 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

--Export sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year; and

--Export sales of 133,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1 and soybean meal Oct. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 487,900 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-650,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 1.807 million metric tons vs. trade’s expectations of 600,000-1.2mmt.

Wheat= 360,600 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 3,900 mt. the trade’s expectations of 150,000-300,000mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA/WASDE Reports.

“What looked like a typical choppy trade day leading up to a USDA Crop Production report turned lower after an announcement that the US/China trade deal might not happen until December. We still remain very sensitive on the trade deal. Look for a choppy trade today as traders get positioned ahead of the Friday USDA report,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Basis levels for corn and soybeans remain firm. It is an especially good time to consider locking in some corn basis levels. As we get to the last 20% of corn harvest, we could see more bushels head to town.”

What say you?

Mike

---

Maybe that last 20% is " Better than expected? ".

LoL,  we'll see.

Seems like Most that L know of still have bout Half left to go.

And say Half of that Half is expected to be harvested next Spring.

Propane is 2 tight and 2 high now.  

[illinifarmer]

20% ha ha that’s cute, I’ll let you guys know when we start corn up here. Granted it’s 60% less planted than a normal year.  Still waiting for our 5$ corn and 12$ soybeans that the seed companies assured us farmers in late June.  So, as the Dow has rallied 3,000 points on rumors there’s still nothing in writing the grains have continuously gone lower. Hope you all enjoy your nice oil spike as the rich get richer and well the rest of us you all know the story.

[Hobbyfarmer]

The kuleless leading the blind.

Exports are less than 20% of our production.

Most areas are down 20% from laat year.

My production last year was just under 70,000 bu corn.

This year havent started corn yet, but hoping for 12,000 bu total on 110 more acres. Went 60% PP then lost 60 % of what i got planted and whats left is way under aph.

I'm in the I state with the fewest problems, but am in a Fed declared disaster county.

MFP, top up, possibly whip, and Fed crop, most of last years corn sold this year and beans to sell next year.

Not my top choice of the way to do it ... but ... Still a taxable event year.

Basis has been crashing down here.

Cash corn + or- $3.50 .

Just went on parts run this am , one of the bto's in this area has 3 new bins going up right now. Guessing 80,000 each, new air floors and all support equip still in piles .

The late planted corn is deteriorating badly lots of lodging and some simply  broke off below the ear. 

Talked to a friend other day said he was all done. Told me his averages...pretty good till he mentioned he had subtracted all the drown outs and failed acres before doing the arithmetic.

Glad fed crop doesnt do it that way for payment purposes...

Usda does do it that way for publication and state averages. 

Just part of the hocus pocus pucker factor of their #'s.

[BA Deere]

With corn at these prices, the buyers must be figuring on "self partnering" , cause farmers aren`t going to want to hook up with 4¢ down   🙂

[sw363535]

small point to make here........

Ever notice how important it is to maintain the mantra of an "grain adviser", that never says anothing that is not favoring the commercials......   

Simple example  soybeans ...... every day the "sources" maintained a negative tone through harvest.  If we had a 3 to 4 cent rise it was "over reaction" "too much" "more than expected" "can we hope to maintain it"......... and every day we were 2 to 4 cents down it was  " the price held up pretty well" "strength under vast pressure" " suprisingly strong on a down day"

The underlying expectation of the people who should be watching harvest was still negative price....... And they won the point.......

Point is to convince producers that a ten cent move in beans is a big move in order to trigger enough sales and enough bad export press/ real or fake/ to limit any harvest reactions to the reality of harvest.  (Harvest very likely worse than 2012)...... With far more financial destruction.

So we all believe that a 9.5 cent move after a 6 cent down two days is a good day in soybeans.    And we might be lucky to have it........

Feeling lucky??????