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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Are you confusing liquidity witb gambling? Or is liquidity just the new terminology?

 CBOT needs to also upgrade/change their name to 

C-BOG

G stands for gambling den of inequality.

Bog is self explanatory

C is equivalent to gps coordinates

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Seems to me that the independent polls that show actual farmers' input re: their own crop numbers, storage, etc., seem to be far more accurate than some govt mouthpiece's political-agenda interpretation of numbers that no one outside of government can independently verify.

All I know is on a 29-degree day, I am looking at all the scattered leaves that now cover the 4 inches of crappy snow we got last night....and it's not even close to being winter.

==========

A few of the headlines from this last week:

"Arkansas Peanuts: Freezing Temps Threaten Last Leg of Harvest"

"Florida: 4 Counties Designated Natural Disaster Areas to Hail, Drought"

"Governor, North Dakota delegation push for disaster declaration" (47 out of 53 counties indicated that they meet the criteria for crop disaster declaration due to excessive rain and cold  -- the other 6 counties need more time to determine -- 2 counties asked to be included because they cannot secure commercial financing to cover the losses. )

....it's not just corn, so there is NO WAY IN HELL the crop numbers are as high as the USDA claims.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)


@marketeye wrote:

samalan1140,

 

I'm not sticking up for it, but the USDA puts out the biggest effort than anyone, in an attempt to get its arms around what's grown, stored, sold, and on-hand more than anyone in the world. Do you have a better option? I would love to know about that group, if its out there.

 

Mike


Mike know I like you, but I totally disagree....... USDA puts very little effort into information gathering or in adjusting of numbers being presented.  It has dropped out of the information gathering process and cannot access its own data(gathered months after the fact)  before most of the monthly reports for the current year have been presented.  It has totally sold out to computer model projections which err on the basis of the expectation of ever greater technology and improvements in management.  USDA, FSA, NASS does not have that kind of contact with the "field".  We stopped recording and planning actual planting acres when we walked away from "setaside acres" and went to open planting and basing payments of bases rather than planted acres....... around 1996 when the swing of transfering large amounts of usda budget to welfare programs happened.

 the process or the need to be in touch with what is taking place on a monthly basis in the field is not the purpose of usda reports --- so in order to grab the spotlight they report........ the laws of averages rule of what might be going on out there.

You, on the otherhand are totally into information gathering to make SF an interesting and up to date voice of agriculture.   I think you need new sources.  Usda has never been intended to be a constant source of current information.  Their purpose is to record for a historic reference, the activity in agriculture, or for reporting to congressional committees for historic updating.  The only way usda can be accurate with data is to be reporting from behind the activity...... not projecting it before the seed is delivered.    They are doing "what if" projections to guide congressional agricultural committees.  You need a farm state farm based viewpoint.  I think even your readers need and want that.  The voice of what is happening out there in never never land.  You  at least need to deliver the voices from the "playing field" of agriculture.  Not from the "political playing field of DC".  

My Dad's 1960's comments are as true today as they were.  "What is happening in farming is generated from the laboratory of the field.  It is where the new ideas are generated and tested.  In the years to follow the proven ones will make it to the University discussion and in around ten years usda will eventually recognize them. " He named 4 neighbors to watch..... all testing equipment they were modifying in their own small machine shops.  

Over the years I have watched chemicals be proven and changed on the farms and begin a process of modifying the labels for new applications,  Combines adjustments developed by a neighbor in 1980 that CIH uses to this day.   etc etc etc.

Your just starting at the wrong end.... ...... but that is where 82% of the population lives.... in those little housing plots that make up 3% of the land in the US...... and too often SF reads like its home is in the 3%.   Those folks are hoping their food is safe, hoping they don't have to go back to gardening, and usda will make sure they have something to worry about by clearing the way for their food to come from a country without regulations, oversight, or accurate labeling.

Who stands up for american agriculture in this process?  Do the 3% producing in the US have a voice?  It will not be usda.  They tend to hang the blame on the 3% every time to protect their careers--purely political decisions.

The time is ripe and changing.

Do you think usda planted acres in Iowa reflect all the windmills, chicken houses, ethanol plants, crp acres, buffer zones, urban sprawl and new grain storage the last 10 years?  Expected planted acres seem pretty constant. and they won't change or even count as long as usda's back doors are not in Iowa.

Declare yourself an beltway publication if your gonna rely on them for information.  Or tap into midwest commercials and agriculture sources that are not years behind in information gathering.  I find feeders, grain merchandisers, and commodity trading firms fairly easy to access.  And I enjoy a couple of sources of marketing information that are regional and understand & project markets without the need of a usda fantasy.

 

just my opinion....

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Ehoff on the other site is questioning 46.9 bushel beans.  Okay, I will confess in front of all of you that I did not git no 46.9 bushel beans this year.  And this isn`t poverty land either, I am getting - + 230 bushel corn so I can believe the 167 whatever number on USDA`s corn.  

But so long as the WORLD is awash in corn, beans and wheat, those that trade grain in the CBOT using USDA numbers are safe...close enough for government work!

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Good morning From East Central Indiana - Been a while since I have been on here - could not get logged in on the old computer = a upgrade , and now I'm back to be a PIA - lol 

Where we live was a garden spot - ask Hobby - His lovely wife and Hobby stopped by this summer for a visit - good to see them again - Our beans ran around the low 50's here - 3 tenth of a inch for the whole month of Sept . I know its a BIG what if - but what would they have made with another inch or more ? 

Corn ran from the 150's to 218 - more of a over all average around high 180's = that is down from the last 3 years or so of 220's - But just go a county North and they are terrible - 130 -140 and beans in the low 30's - they just got that much more rain than we did . 

I do find it hard to believe that the USDA's numbers for corn are only down 7 bpa than last years with the weather we have had across the country . 

Question time my friends ! If there is SSSSSSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOO much corn around here - then ( and how many times have any of you seen this ) I did a few basis contracts at + 20 or more for Oct and Jan ? + 20 ? most times here it would be - 20 or 30 - I don't think I have seen a + for fall or Jan in my 46 years of playing this farming game - lol 

Hobby - did you get done ? 

ECIN 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

There isn`t corn piled in the streets of Woden.  The only corn piles that stand out to me is down at Holmes.  Eagle Grove has a lot of corn to pick yet, the other day a Silver Seeder was gettin` after some beans with a skiff of snow on the ground, he was making dust....or blowin` snow  Smiley Happy  They didn`t get the 4" of snow we did.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Nope beans finally dried last couple  of days.

In for lunch got one swampy field left with ruts all around the perimeter from first of week, gonna go try it again in 20 minutes.

Probably hope for no snow and have to run them next week as we are supposed to get close to single digits.

If it will not hold me up (9860sts deere) I'll put the corn head on the 2366 and start corn. Haven't tried any yet but nieghbors are all saying corn isn't drying down very well yet. Three days after single digits it should be 16  or less.

 I'm so deep into crop insurance territory there is no incentive to harvest wet corn.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Seems  the  $tat$  of  1996,   2010,   2012,  were  cherished  by  sellers  -  producers ,  while  today's  numbers  being  in  question  -  ? 

Also,  as  far  as  consolidation  being  the  prize  package,  ask  the  folks  in  Sidney  Nebraska ,  with  the  un-coupling  of  the  Cabelas  outfit ,   or  will  a  Patent  wheat  seed ,  save  them  -  -  -

  Un-bridled   input  - operational   cost$,   are  the  un-unspeakable,    broken  spoke ,   maybe -  ?

Customer  foot  traffic  is  applicable  to  all  phases  of   economic  vitality,  and  if  you  are  weary  of  that  statement,  ASK   NASCAR  ,  about  their   fan  base  dilemma,    -  -  -

Why  are  we  $o  intent  on  making  the  Buffalo  Commons  a  reality   -  ?               

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Actually investors that don't have a tractor have only one goal in the market.

That is to cause the most instability possible. 

If the only price difference through out the year covered carrying cost there would be no grain traders. 

They all live and die for "chart generated" price swings. That have nothing to do with supply, demand, or cost of production.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, November 8, 2019 (Report Day)

Nice to read ecin again......

289, that Cabellas and bass pro issue reminds me of Reagan(or was it the "brilliant" press) claiming to have out spent USSR over the bankruptcy edge.

And the main street exodus and business consolidation moves that leaves most of the retail world depending on Walmart and Amazon delivery....... while property taxes absorb the value losses of destroying competition.  

How many times have we seen electricians, well drillers, or welders( farmers, etc etc) in their 30's & 40's collect a few paychecks and start lining the yard with big boy toys..... just to sell out in their early 50's when the cheaper competition gets the work.  We should ask why?

It is not a conspiracy,  just the result of business education that is so poor we cant figure profit margins or handle cash flows.  Who on earth thinks business is a get rich quick scheme?  

Those entertainment industry flaunting shows like Cabela's & Bass pro demand a lot of  "envy" spending.  When they start into the "time share resort con games" ya know the end of what the first generation built is near.  It all demands more "discretionary spending" by the general public that the public can afford long term.

 

Great point popspoppe,    CBOT serves the gambling industry at our expense...  Until congress ties ownership of grain to a futures contract we may never again see the futures based on supply and demand.... and that is not going to happen because stealing from the taxpayers is a much more lucrative endeavor for the political lovers.

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