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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, October 1, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.92 1/4. March corn futures closed 5¢ higher at $4.04 1/2.

Nov. soybean futures settled 13 1/2¢ higher at $9.19. Jan. soybean futures finished 13¢ higher at $9.32 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures ended 3¢ higher at $4.98 3/4.



December soymeal futures closed $8.00 per short ton higher at $309.00.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.20 lower at 28.88¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 288 points lower.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.90 1/4. March corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $4.02.

Nov. soybean futures are 8¢ higher at $9.14. Jan. soybean futures are 7 1/4¢ higher at $9.26 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $4.91 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $5.50 per short ton higher at $306.50.

 December soy oil futures are $0.02 higher at 29.10¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 218 points lower.

 

Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platt’s Head of Grain and Oilseed Analytics, says that the strength in today’s markets comes from this week’s favorable trading news.

“Mostly a continuation of yesterday’s reaction to cuts in soybean production. Funds remain short but seem unwilling to add after yesterday, causing the markets to drift higher. Corn technicians are looking to fill the gap in December futures to $3.9275 per bushel. Fairly quiet, all things considered. It’s more about a lack of selling than committed buyers, Meyer says.

 

Mike

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At 9:00am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.90. March corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.01 1/2.

Nov. soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $9.11. Jan. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.22 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.93 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton higher at $302.80.

 December soy oil futures are $0.15 higher at 29.23¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.51 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 116 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that yesterday’s bullish USDA Quarterly Grains Stocks Report has a long tail.

“The quarterly USDA Grain Stocks report stated corn stocks were 314 million bushels lower than pre-report estimates. That is the third-largest bullish adjustment (on a percentage basis) going back to December 1983. The soybean stocks number was 69 million bushels less than pre-report estimates. This news sent corn prices to the highest level since August 13. Meanwhile, soybean prices hit levels last seen on July 29,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The funds are now more likely to reduce the large short position they have in corn and soybeans. With the new data, prices will be more sensitive to poor yield reports. The bullish “what if” scenarios just got a little easier to justify,” Kluis stated.

 

Mike

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3 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 1, 2019

Dyersville reported highest September hay prices and they`ve gotten in a lot of wet baled crap, so more corn acres going to silage?  Also, I don`t know if we`ll get a freeze soon, but the green beans and freshly dented corn isn`t going to accumulate many GDUs going forward, dilemma may be harvest Dec 1,  28% moisture corn ahead of a snowstorm or wait til spring on 10 million acres?   Carrot$ will have to be dangled.

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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 1, 2019

Just some things I like to keep in mind --

Dec corn closed @ $4.68 on 6-17-19, local fall cash contract price was $4.08

Nov soybeans closed @$9.41 on 6-20-19, local fall cash contract price was $8.16

Right now, local cash prices are $3.61 and $8.47, (local corn harvest underway, beans not)

Spring crop revenue plan insurance prices were $4.00 and $9.54 (established in February)

 

Haven't harvested anything yet myself.  Have heard corn yields that are pretty wild -- some really low, barely over 100, some really high, over 250.  Of course, some river bottoms that did get planted got flooded out, so -0- there.  Saw a neighbor at lunchtime yesterday -- he said my corn would make 230 on hill over by him, we'll see I guess, I haven't checked any of my own other than checking on moisture, could use a week (or 6) of dry weather.  A 230 yield would be on par with 2014, so I doubt it mainly due to later planting, had a couple downpours and hail that ripped and laid the corn down awhile at 5L and 7L, but insignificant stand loss, then had some more hail damage just before and again just after pollination.  Did add 50# nitrogen at around 10L due to all the wet weather, then flew on fungicide right after the pre-pollination hail storm that punched and ripped leaves.  230 would be nice, APH over there is 177 -- I'd look up my trend yield, but agent never sent me copies of that stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, October 1, 2019

Small part of the world here but forecast is for 3C Friday night. That will be a little damaging to some low areas with green beans and immature corn yet because of delayed planting.

Not as bad as the Canadian prairies where they have snow and most are only 50% harvested at best with grain and canola in swaths in some places.

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