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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 14¢ lower at $3.80 1/4. March corn futures finished 14¢ lower at $3.91 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures settled 1/4¢ lower at $9.23 1/2. Jan. soybean futures closed 1/2¢ lower at $9.37 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures closed 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.93 1/2.



December soymeal futures finished $1.90 per short ton lower at $307.80.

 December soy oil futures closed 0.07 cents higher at 29.78¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.78 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 150 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 10¢ lower at $3.84 1/4. March corn futures are 9 1/4¢ lower at $3.96 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $9.30 1/2. Jan. soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $9.44 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $4.96 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton higher at $310.50.

 December soy oil futures are 0.22 cents higher at 29.93¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.80 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 191 points higher.

Mike

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At 11am:

USDA SAYS:

On Thursday, the USDA dropped its U.S. soybean crop size estimate, while corn jumps up.

In its October Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn yield at 168.4 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 167.5 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 168.2. The governmental agency estimated corn production at 13.77 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 13.68 billion and its estimate last month of 13.7 billion.

For soybeans, USDA’s yield estimate came in at 46.9 bu./acre vs. the avg. trade estimate of 47.3 bu./acre and its previous estimate of 47.9.

Soybean output has been pegged at 3.55 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 3.58 billion bushels and its previous estimate of 3.63 billion.

Harvested Acreage

In its report, the USDA pegged U.S. 2019 corn harvested acreage at 81.8 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 81.6 million and its previous estimate of 82.01 million.

For soybeans, the harvested acreage is pegged at 75.6 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 75.70 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 75.8 million.

U.S. 2019/20 Ending Stocks

The USDA sees the U.S. 2019/2020 corn ending stocks at 1.929 billion bushels vs. its previous estimate of 2.19 billion and the avg. trade estimate of 1.784 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 460 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 521 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 630 million bushels.

In its report, USDA pegged the U.S. 2019/2020 wheat ending stocks at 1.043 billion bushels vs. its previous estimate of 1.01 billion and the avg. trade estimate of 1.015 billion.

World 2019/2020 Ending Stocks

The USDA pegged the world corn ending stocks at 302 million metric tons vs. the avg. trade estimate of 298.3 mmt. and its previous estimate of 306.3 mmt.

For soybeans, the world’s ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous estimate of 99.2 mmt.

The USDA raised its world wheat ending stocks to 287 mmt. from 286.5 last month and the avg. trade estimate of 285.2 mmt.

Trade Reaction

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading founder, says that the soybean numbers and the corn yield are the two things that stick out in today’s report. “The soybean balance sheet is tightening pretty dramatically, and the harvest remains uncertain at best, which means bears may feel some pressure in the near term.

Gilbertie added, “Corn yields projected higher are viewed by many with skepticism. It seems like things will be very interesting between now and the November report when crop conditions and harvest results become more clear.”

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that weather will trump today’s USDA numbers.
“With all eyes on the weather, traders took a break to glance at today's October USDA Crop Report. It was bearish for corn, with a yield increase from September’s crop report. The corn yield was increased from 168.2 to 168.4, exports were reduced along with ethanol usage,” Roose says.
Roose added, “The soybean market reacted bullish, with ending stocks being lowered for the second month in a row. Soybean yields were reduced one bushel from September on beans from 47.9 down to 46.9. And, world ending stocks were lowered 4 mmt.
Going forward, weather and demand will be the dominant items to watch during the next few weeks, Roose says.

--Britt O’Connell, Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the biggest surprises in today's report were on yield for both corn and soybeans.
“Yield was raised 2/10th on corn and lowered one full bushel on soybeans. While harvested acres were reduced on corn, demand was lowered for ethanol and exports as well. Corn ending stocks came in at 1.9 bln vs 1.6 trade estimate,” O’Connell points out.

She added, “From a technical perspective, a corn close above $3.80 per bushel is key. While there were few that published significantly lower yield estimates, it does feel like the market was expecting a greater reduction and certainly not an upward correction.
O’Connell says that she is surprised that soybeans have mustered up more of a rally.
“Every 20 cents in the bean market is effectively resistance. We did not breach $9.40 per bushel. A move above $9.60 could point towards great price potential in that market,” O’Connell says.
Soybean ending stocks were lowered nearly a one-third from their Sept numbers, down from 640 million bushels to 460 million.
“Stocks-to-use are nearing 10% on beans. Generally, that is what pushes us towards $10 beans,” O’Connell says.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

--------------

At 10am:

 

If you missed it earlier on Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 284,500 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000-800,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 2.09 mmt. trade’s expectations not reported.

Wheat= 521,900 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 364,700 mt. the trade’s expectations not reported.

 

 

Mike

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At 9:52am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.93 1/4. March corn futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.04 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.27 1/2. Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $9.40 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 3/4¢ higher at $5.01.



December soymeal futures are $0.40 per short ton higher at $310.10.

December soy oil futures are 0.10 cents higher at 29.81¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.67 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 157 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 398,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are anxious to see today’s USDA Report.

“This morning, all eyes will be on the USDA Crop Production report. With all the crop uncertainty, will we see the USDA lower the crop size in this report? The trade is expecting some crop declines in both corn and soybean crops. ,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The USDA will likely lower the corn crop size. However, we will also see the USDA offset some of the lower production with lower demand, by decreasing exports and ethanol demand.”

 

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7 Replies
samalan1140
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

Bahaha what a bunch of BS the corn crop getting bigger,what a bunch of lying bastards.

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

Once they lower the total production of soybeans to closer to 3 billion instead of 3.55 billion the carryover is gone.   

The price discovery period for soybeans is on a slow boat to China.   (Pun intended)

Total predicted bushels of corn is simply unbelievable.........with millions of acres not even planted and millions of June planted acres.  I'm not sure what USDA's end game is,   but it's gonna leave a mark on someone.   Right now, the American farmer is getting the short end of the stick..........and I know where many farmers would like to put that stick.

illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

Wow, how shocking another short lived lie to rescue the traders and markets.  This entire market and system is a JOKE!!  Not to throw the political hammer down, but this is just another example of follow the leader.  When the top guy continuously breaks the law it’s the old republican trickle down effect.  Every other agency and regular guy says why not maybe I can get away with it too.  I am seriously considering never paying taxes ever again.  What the heck, why not me. 🤫

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samalan1140
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

These traders are a joke they know nothing about farming and the puppet on a string Mike aka marketeye is one of the biggest douches you will ever meet fake as hell.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

FWIW,   The USDA has been doing this long before the current President took office.

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

I continue to support Darin Newsom’s position that markets  and usda reports are totally unrelated. Obviously those who continue to think that projections have any level of accuracy can’t hold that position for much more than one session day.  

The only connection to markets of this usda report was to give me and many others an opportunity to buy a little paper corn 14 cents cheaper in an up trend market.

chart reports and trends.  Trends never begin on usda information. Reports have never reversed the trend for more than a couple of days, and that wouldn’t happen if high speed trading was restricted. 

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 10, 2019 (Report Day)

samalan1140 = totally uncalled for and childish!!

I've met Mike and you couldn't be more wrong!!

You try being the messenger and see how many people take shots at you.

 

sw - thanks for being one of the adults in the room.

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