USDA Report Says:
Production Estimates:
U.S. 2014 corn yield estimate= 174.2 bushels per acre, compared to its September estimate of 171.7 bushels per acre and the trade’s expectation of 174.7 bu./ace.
Soybeans= 47.1 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 47.6 bu./acre and the USDA’s September estimate of 46.6 bu./acre.
Corn= 14.475 billion bushels
Soybeans= 3.92 billion
2014 U.S. Harvested Acreage
Corn= 83.1 million, down 1% from September, down 5% from a year ago.
Soybeans= 83.4 million, down 1% from September's estimate, but up 9% from a year ago.
U.S. Ending Stocks
Corn=2.08
S= 450
Wheat= 654
Other Notes:
USDA left corn and soybean export estimates unchanged. Wheat exports increased and usage was increased. That is helping the wheat market.
TRADE REACTION:
--Jacob Burks, First Capitol Ag, says that the trade had it all figured in. "We spent the first 30 minutes chopping around after the “knee jerk” report trade then we have slowly sold corn and beans off. We needed to feed the bull but there just wasn’t enough there. Wheat had lower global supply than anyone expected and should remain supportive."
--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the US production and ending stocks estimates are a little bullish compared to expectations, but at the end of the day it is still a big crop and still big ending stocks. "I expect any rally because the numbers are bullish to expectations to fade as they are still big crops. Been a wild reaction which is normal, but I expect weakness next week no matter how we close today, and I see now that things have calmed down that the market is starting to factor in big crops. Plus, USDA is likely to increase yields and production in November and maybe January. I really see no reason to get long, anyway.
The wheat data was bullish, both US and world. I need to look more into the world data, but that was well below expectations and wheat might be able to hold.
Rice was kind of neutral I guess, a little bump in production but nothing special," Scoville says.
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s stock report confirms large crop expectations for corn and soybeans, but yields and production were slightly below trade estimates, which may provide some underlying price support.
"This report projects record corn and soybean usage, which appears to confirm suspicions that lower prices are stimulating demand. Global wheat usage is also projected at a record, resulting in a reduction of anticipated global wheat stocks, which also seems to indicate increasing global demand as a result of declining prices. End users waiting for lower wheat prices may be taking some risks here, given the projected record demand of just over 714 million metric tons. Demand for US soybeans and corn is clearly impressive, which means future reports will be watched closely by corn and soybean end users for more clarity on yields and total production, which will ultimately determine future price direction."
What do you think?
Mike
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At the close:
The December corn futures settled 10 3/4 cents lower at $3.34 per bushel.
November soybean futures finished 19 1/2 cents lower at $9.22.
December wheat futures closed 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.98.
For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $2.50 per short ton lower at $311.00; Dec. soybean oil futures finished $0.57 lower at $32.44.
In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.
Mike
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At mid-day:
The December corn futures are trading 8 1/4 cents lower at $3.36 per bushel.
November soybean futures are trading 11 1/4 cents lower at $9.30.
December wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $5.00.
For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $0.90 per short ton lower at $312.60; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.39 lower at $32.62.
In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points higher.
Mike
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At the open:
The December corn futures opened 4 cents lower at $3.40 per bushel.
November soybean futures opened 9 cents lower at $9.32.
December wheat futures opened unchanged at $4.93.
For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract opened $2.20 per short ton lower at $311.30; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.40 lower at $32.61.
In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.97 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Mike
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At 7:00am:
Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 7-9 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower. The markets await today's USDA October Supply/Demand Report.
Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.65 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen lower, as global concerns continue.
World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
Mike
