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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

Mr. Borman, what you wrote shows that what I have suggested makes more sense than ever. You have input costs that have risen steadily since the 1980's yet the prices for your product are just slightly above what they were in the 80's and maybe heading back there. The answer the farm community has employed to fight this problem has been to produce more per acre, thinking you will get higher revenues from volume if you can't get it from price. But all you have done is grown supply faster than demand has risen, which exerts even more downward pressure on prices.

 

Which means if you're going to survive in your business, you're going to have to come up with better solutions than telling people to go f*ck themselves. One way to maximize your income is to take full advantage of every price bounce in the corn market and lock in the best prices you can before they head back down. The second is to lobby your elected representatives in Washington and ask them to help you the way they have helped people in the residential real estate market : buy up farm land that goes into foreclosure ad lease it out to farmers at cost based on a 100 year recovery of cost basis. The government will make a fortune on the capital gain and farmers will see their input costs fall as they will be able to pay less rent on the land they work. To all other farmers who own their land, the government buying will push up the values of all farmland, so they benefit as well. 

 

This is what you should be doing instead of blaming everyone else who has a hand in your business. Those other businesses faced the same profit margin comp[ression as the farmers, but they did something about it. Now its your turn. If you fail to adapt to the ways of farm finance as they are practiced today, then you have no one but yourselves to blame when your profits become losses because you didn't act to save your profit margins.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

RayFcom,

Farmers and some traders Smiley Happy have been successful over the years without the “ Rayfcom Insight”.

All of a sudden, you find this website and it’s like a kid in a candy store. You have answers to everything.

Do you really think people will take their hard earned money and listen to you?



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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

You clearly really know nothing about my personal, farming nor financial situations, and I doubt you know much more about anyone else's.  At the same time, you have found it possible to offend some, if not most, of the most well-known and respected people on this site.  If this was your intent, then you've done a good job so far.  I previously tried to spin this less bluntly, but to no avail.  Until I see some earned "kudos" on your posts, I'm done reading them.  Yes, I'll accept whatever those consequences might be, I'll get over/thru it okay while I'm stumbling down to the poor-house mailbox to pick up my government check so I can afford to refuel the combine and call the banker.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

I don't care if anyone listens to me because I am my only client and only investor. 

 

I came her to see if there was any good frontline information that could help me make better decisions in my corn trading. I heard a bunch of whiners complaining about prices being too low based on input costs, and tried to explain to them that their input costs do not determine where prices trade, its their supply that matters. Which led me to opine that the producers are very poor managers of their supply, and that's why profit margins keep shrinking.

 

Frankly, when I saw that there was nothing useful to be gleaned from this site from the farm community, I should have left and not come back. The way I see it, the operator of this website should write me a check for bringing all the new clicks here. For me its a waste of time now. If I gained anything by being here its that I now understand why farm prices remain in a bear trend, and also why the big farmers are taking over the small ones. I learned something else about where farm values are going, but there is no futures contract on that for me to make any money on.

 

I'll probably do you all a favor and leave, so you can happily fall down the flight of stairs all the while thinking you're doing the right thing.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

We'll talk when corn has a $2 handle, maybe then you'll see what I was trying to explain now.

 

In the meanwhile, there's no useful information on this site. Until now, the big hedge funds have tried to move the corn market by playing with the psyche's of the end users. If they ever find out about the producers, look out.

 

I'll give you one example and then I am done. I know there has been little farm producer selling in the futures markets during the price bounce in the last two weeks. Which tells me that many of you are still long up the wazoo with that huge crop you've grown in your fields. If that report comes in as expected tomorrow and prices start dropping, what the huge hedge funds should do is crash prices down and not stop until they see capitulation on the part of the farmers. It wouldn't be hard for a huge fund to sell this market down half a dollar from here, and I know that sooner or later there will be farmers looking at the price saying oh sh*t, if I don't sell now and this market keeps falling I am going to be bankrupted. That's when the farm selling will begin, and that's when the hedge fund would take a huge. They could play this game every time there is a bounce in the corn market and a strong crop in the field, and there's nothing that the producers could do because they refuse to listen to financial reason. 

 

That's the risk you are up against, sort of like what George Soros did to the English pound in '92, or again to the Malaysian Ringgit in '98. You h=guys leave yourselves so open for that kind of raid, its amazing. 

 

It will happen one day, and then everyone will wish they had taken the simple step of incorporating a hedging program into their business and avoided being the sacrificial lamb on which some wealthy hedge fund manager feasted. 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

Ray,
Ok, if you want frontline information, please stop writing and read what others have to say. It is that easy.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

Rayfcom not gonna respond your not worth it
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

rayf, I seem to recall in the 2008-20012 time frame about people delivering $4.00 corn when the neighbors were getting 7 or 8.  Hedging or forward contracts are not always the best way, and certainly not the only way to market grain.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

The only thing I see anyone talking about is the weather, which I already know about from two national forecast updates every day, and about how prices are too low because profit margins are being compressed. Oh yeah, and that no one wants to sell their corn until we see prices above $4. 

 

If that's the best information I can get here, then its a waste of my time.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 10

You get what you pay for.
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