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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 11

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures closed up it's daily limit of 40 cents at $6.45. The Nov. soybean contract settled 58 cents higher at $12.35 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures settled 49 1/2 cents higher at $6.61 3/4. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $12.10 per short ton higher at $320.60. The Dec. soyoil futures clolsed $2.07 higher at $52.18.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 6 points.


Here's how Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com summarizes today's unbelievable market rally:

"Grains started the day up marginally, as exchange reports talked of a reluctance of traders wanting to take a position prior the risk of Wednesdays big USDA crop report at 7:30 a.m. central time. But things changed on two issues. One, Russia said they may limit exports to half of production to keep grain home to replenish stocks, after the year prior drought drained reserves. This suggests importers may turn to the U.S. to fill needs. The second issue surfaced after the open when the export inspection report showed 23.3 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export with 15.5 m.b. going to China versus the four prior weeks of  4.6, 2.5, 6.7,  and 9.5 m.b. Corn has now rallied 70 cents since the low Oct.3 , beans 78 cents and wheat 55 cents. Out of the last 10 months we have had 8 months  where funds have rallied the grains into the monthly crop report from the months opening low. Today's rally now softens the effect of a bullish report Wednesday and strengthens the effect of a bearish report."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 33 cents higher at $6.38. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 42 3/4 cents higher at $12.20 1/4. The Dec. wheat futures are trading 32 1/2 cents higher at $6.44. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $9.40 per short ton higher at $317.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $1.47 higher at $51.58.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.36 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 7 points.

 

Traders are stunned! What a technical rally! Techncially, a lot of numbers have been blown through. The 'longs' are blowing the 'shorts' out of the market, with this rally. Maybe the technicians know something the fundamentalist don't, one floor trader says. Maybe tomorrow's report will not be bearish like many have felt. or, what happens if this report is bearish? Oh boy," he says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures opened 3 1/4 cents higher at $6.08 1/2. The Nov. soybean contract opened 13 3/4 cents higher at $11.90 3/4. The Dec. wheat futures opened 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.18. The Dec. soymeal futures opened $3.10 per short ton higher at $311.60. The Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.38 higher at $50.52.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 10 points.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA announced Tuesday that 261,200 metric tons of U.S. corn was sold to Mexico.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

I'm hearing that 6-8 cargoes of U.S. soybeans have been sold to China and the sales may be announced this morning by the USDA. If this is true, we will know at 8am.

 

Mike

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At 7:10am:

Do you see the USDA Report returning to the farm futures market the strength it had before the $2 corn and $3 soybean retracement? Apparently Credit Suisse bank does, according to a report on the Dow Jones Newswire Tuesday. The bank sees tomorrow's report as a game-changer. What say you?

 

Mike

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At 6:15am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 10-11 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.51 lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower after yesterday's 3% run-up. Today's the start of the earnings season with Alcoa, the aluminum company reports.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, while Europe stocks are lower.

 

Announcement: On Wednesday, following the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports, Agriculture.com will carry a livestream of the CME Group Press briefing, beginning at 8:15am sharp. Watch the analysts reaction to the report 'live' in a thread that will be started in Marketing Talk. Join us and we hope you find the information beneficial.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Some only see this afternoon's Crop Progress Report showing a 35% corn and soybean harvested pace, while others have the completion rate for soybeans over 50%. All I know is that after driving through Iowa, and parts of Illinois and Indiana this past week, I witnessed a lot of corn untouched. Soybeans have been coming  out a pretty good clip though.

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Turmoil after a report is now the new normal, regardless of which way it goes as somwe tends to be contrarian.  This last month never did settle down after the last report. I'd give it at least a week this time. After that I expect physical fundamentals to be the driver in a more steady fashion than we've had. Market turmoil has obscured the normal patterns for awhile.

 

The key in the future will be Chinese buying vs ending stocks levels. China will not buy one time large amounts. Their purchases will be continuous and the numbers will add up on the global scene.

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Russia plan for grainlevy!!!

The amounts of export this fall is enough and Putin do not like any risk to be sold complete  out!!!

Someone knew this very early last night???

Expect Matif to be optimistic....

 

www.agrimoney.com

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Let these people have their rally.  They have suffered quite a bit in the last month. Remember  Mercy is a fine thing. You may want some sometime.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

"Let these people have their rally."

 

What people are you referring to?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 11

Looks like someone leaked my yields. 

 

Didn't understand the 2.50 drop, especially when a 153 yield in the August report didn't cause the market to drop.    There is some big money moving the market, and they really were able to sell the big crop story for awhile.  Pump and dump. 

 

Just what we needed, expanded limits for report day....

 

 

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