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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

USDA SAYS:

 

2016 Yields:

 

Corn=  173.4 bu./acre vs.     USDA Sept. 174.4 bu./acre

 

Soybeans=  51.4 bu./acre  vs. 50.6 bu./acre last month by USDA

 

2016/17 Ending Stocks

 

Corn= 2.32 billion bushels vs. USDA's Sept. 2.384 bill.

 

Soybeans=   395 million bushels vs. USDA Sept. 365 million.

 

Soybeans jumped 12 cents, after the report, initially

 

TRADE REACTION:

 

Michael Rusch, Sales Director- Ag/Commercial | Stewart-Peterson, says that the WASDE numbers appear to be market-neutral.
“For what it is worth, I hold the belief that anyone in the industry can take this report data and make a case for a move in either direction, based on their bias,” Rusch says.  “Our stance is to identify if the current data is outside the normal view and what that does to ending stock calculations and if that has a substantial impact on price adjustment.  In this case, it doesn’t have much of an impact currently.”
 
Rusch adds, “What we want to focus on is if this report will help establish Dec corn and Nov bean futures contracts low or validate the existing low.  Then we can look at the probability of the average bounce from established low to the March or July high.  This will help us set some cash sale triggers and then develop option strategies to prepare to position for the “what if…” scenarios.”

 

--Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, describes today’s report as remarkably pedestrian.  
“A couple go items of note; total wheat/corn/soybean exports at 5.225 billion bushels will be a logistical challenge for U.S. ports in my estimation. And, a global soybean carry out of 77.36M MT was up 5M MT month-over-month and is now back at ‘15/’16 levels,” Meyer says.
Meyer adds, “Corn needs to trade above $3.50 per bushel, in order to gain some traction which this report has not provided. Also, soybeans may get a bump from lower than expected yields but that global carry out is worrisome.”

 

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the WASDE numbers were neutral-to- friendly.
“Exports were increased on both corn and soybeans, yield estimates even though historically high were not increased as much as they trade was anticipated on the corn and soybeans. Overall, the numbers were no surprise and should continue in same trading range as harvest progresses,” Roose says.

 

-One analyst surprised that the bean market jumped up 12¢, immediately. Not sure if it can hold.

 

--Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, says the market’s immediate reaction to the report is surprising.
“Nothing real shocking or to support this higher move in the soybean market. Let’s see how the market closes today.”

--Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says that the USDA’s yields were mainly as expected.
“The USDA has corn demand up another 50 million bushels from an increase in exports. This means it now predicts this year's total demand will be 777 million bushels above the previous record. This will be a difficult task for the market to achieve with ultra-large grain stocks around the word and large increase's expected out of South America,” Johnson says.

 

 

 

Mike

---------

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 8 1/2¢ lower at $3.37 while March futures ended 8 1/2¢ lower at $3.46 3/4 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures closed 8 3/4¢ lower at $9.45 1/2, while Jan. soybean futures closed 8 1/4¢ lower at $9.53 1/2. Dec. wheat futures settled 10 1/2¢ lower at $3.96 3/4. Dec. soymeal futures closed $3.80 short ton lower at $296.50. Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.01 lower at 33.34¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.52 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-day:

At 12-Noon, the Dec. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.40 while March futures are 5¢ lower at $3.50 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $9.53, while Jan. soybean futures are 1/4¢ lower at $9.61. Dec. wheat futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $4.04. Dec. soymeal futures are $1.40 short ton lower at $298.90. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.20 higher at 33.55¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 33 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 10:15am:

If you missed it, the USDA announced fresh export sales Wednesday.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 115,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year. Of the total 55,000 metric tons are optional origin sales.  An optional origin contract provides that the origin of the commodity may be the U.S. or one or more other exporting countries.

 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

-----------

In early trading:

At 9am, the Dec. corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.46 while March futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.55 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.57, while Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $9.64. Dec. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $4.05. Dec. soymeal futures are $1.10 short ton higher at $301.40. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.27 higher at 33.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.67 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

Corn and beans were little changed in overnight trading as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of today's WASDE report. The USDA is expected to lower its corn-yield projection while raising its outlook for soybean yield. The unpredictable nature of the report, however, is keeping investors from making any big moves his morning. A freeze warning has been issued for all of Iowa, the eastern half of Nebraska and parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin started extremely late tonight and ending tomorrow morning.    
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.5% higher. 
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.4% higher. 

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures modestly lower in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks decline on continued Brexit worries. 

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

The kansas trade shows corn up 1 and beans up 2...... with wheat down 2      So lets say down here the trade is a "little upitty".

 

in kansas we are anxious for this very important usda report.  Trying not to discriminate an October report from the importance of any other month regardless of their livestyle or historical record....... We anticipate it with baited breath.  Especially since the "payout" is being sent this week, otherwise known locally as the "October Supprise" .......with a popular Jim Nabors accent.....

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TnkJ8_BmSI

 

Who could vote against corruption now.....Smiley Frustrated

Even a billionaire wouldn't stand a chance.

 

We expect them to start the downward adjustment in Corn this month, (It will take about 4 months to get down to a good average crop from the lofty expectations of the wizards at usda.  

Beans ks will be watching the acres adjustments.... 

Exports just a cheary WAA HOOO  ------ Give this worthless stuff away.... coming from the combines across the region as we anchor down our pile of valuable commodity(yes even below $3 corn has value that may be better than the $$$ come post election time),

The crop harvested in storage...... and we are trying to keep it from sliding into the gulf.  

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

You know.....the way things are going been considering a second hobby....reading the two
Market comments, I think perhaps I've found my
Calling.....I can write market comments
(No, I'm not talking about sw)

Yeilds go up...prices go up
Yeilds go down...prices go down
(In beans)

Had a friend call last night, thinking about getting
Out of cattle business, hauled in load of 550 heifers
And said 97 cents. Granted I have not looked
For a while, but sounds cheap. Guys also
Giving up pastures

I'm writing a little message in my mind that I'll
Share in a few days concerning health insurance
Since coverage for small farmers will be a
Nightmare in 2017.

I think the pain is just starting.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

Well IT'S fixed now....down 

 

 

Been fighting A kric in my back for the last week, no lifting.

 

The deck chairs here on the Podunk Titanic ll are in disarray, Need arranged for a better viewing of the impending disaster.

 

Oh Joy...

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

Mr. Johnson,,,,,,,,

Specifically who is expecting increases in production out of Brazil......???

 

Our Brazil report has been saying the opposite... 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 12 (Report Day)

remarkably pedestrian...............................what the hell is that supposed to mean ?????

 

 

 

where do they get these people.................

 

and these are traders/advisors ???

 

 

understand now why things are a mess ??

 

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