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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk October 13

It's Friday the 13th, and you know what that means? Yep, the month started on a Sunday.

Anyway, soybeans were higher overnight after yesterday's big rally while corn and wheat were little changed. The USDA in its monthly WASDE report lowered its outlook for both yield (49.5 bushels an acre vs. expectations for 49.9 bushels) and stockpiles (430 million bushels vs. expectations for 452 million bushels), which sent beans almost 27 cents higher on Thursday. Overnight, beans added another 3 cents while corn was unchanged and wheat moved less than a penny.

In weather news, storms are forming over much of the Midwest including eastern Nebraska (Go Big Red)/western Iowa and southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. While no severe weather is expected, the storms will produce locally heavy rain this weekend, which could further delay the harvest. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-october-13.
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 2.1%

West Texas Intermediate = up 1.1%

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight. 

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8 Replies
Successful Farming Editor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

At the open:
The Dec. corn futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.50 1/4. March futures are 1¢ higher at $3.63 3/4. Nov. soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.93 1/4.  Jan. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $10.03 1/2. December wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.32. Dec. soy meal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $325.70. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.45 higher at 33.73¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.76 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.

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Successful Farming Editor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

At mid-session Friday, the Dec. corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.51. March futures are 2¢ higher at $3.64 3/4. Nov. soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $9.97 3/4.  Jan. soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $10.07 3/4. December wheat futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $4.33 3/4. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $328.  Dec. soy oil futures are $0.38 higher at 33.66¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.76 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

“The rally in beans is mostly in reaction to the USDA reports.  USDA showed lower than expected ending stocks, and that was part of it,” says Jack Scoville, señor market analyst with The Price Futures Group.  “But it seems that the lower yield expectation, not a huge change but enough, really triggered the buying.  Ideas are that even lower national yields are coming in the next couple of reports.  Plus we are keeping an eye on Brazil and Argentina, where the weather is far from ideal—too dry north, too wet south and northern Argentina.  Specs were leaning the wrong way I think on ideas of bigger area making bigger production. “

At Roach Ag  Marketing, Brian Roach sees more upside potential for soybean futures. “If we can hold this into the close today and not loose to much on Monday…I would look at the next level of resistance at around $10.20,” he says.

So far, soybean futures have only regained about 70¢ of the normal rebound from August lows. It usually rallies $1.50 to $1.80 from those lows into rallies in the following spring or summer, he says.

With strong soybean exports, “the trade is adopting the idea that ending stocks of 430 million bushels will continue to get smaller,” in future USDA reports.

Growth in swine inventory in China adds to his optimism that demand for meal and soybeans will continue strong, he says.

Soybean prices also mean the the corn-soybean ratio still favors planting more soybeans. As the market seeks to attract more corn acres, that gives upside potential to corn futures as well, he says.

“I think we’ll probably look back at today’s corn prices and say they were too cheap,” he says.

“The thing that’s not working well for the corn market is wheat,” he adds, referring to potential competition from cheap feed wheat. “The fundamentals in wheat remain bearish,” he says.

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Successful Farming Editor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.52 3/4, while March futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.66 1/2. Nov. soybean futures finished 8 1/4¢ higher at $10.00 1/4. Jan. soybean futures were 7 3/4¢ higher at $10.10 1/4. December wheat futures closed 9¢ higher at $4.39 1/2. Dec. soy meal futures finished $2.30 per short ton higher at $328.60. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.41 higher at 33.69¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.52 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

Lol, lol lol lol 😂 was a joke right? We’ve been saying this all along for months. It takes one report with one number and the bottom falls off. So, the negative markets and reports for the last four months no apologies, no compensation, no acknowledgement even from the ones who swore up and down they were reporting facts.? Curious to even see the market move, how did you guys not conspire a way to spin this report. Fruit for thought I’m not complaining about the rally just that it has been far to long of a time coming. What we get back on this positive note will never cover what we’ve endured up to this point nor cover the losses.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

Brazil weather news probably helped soybean prices.  We'll have to see if it really lowers their planting numbers when all is said and done.

How has anyone lost anything so far?  I thought no one here was selling into the low prices and all were expecting a rally?  To me, that means producers were long the cash and maybe even long the board.  Looks like an opportunity to make money for all those who were forecasting a short crop.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

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Successful Farming Editor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

One of the things driving markets after Thursday's report was the reduction in stocks. That's based partly on an increase in crush and exports of OLD crop. USDA is very cautious and makes changes slowly--especially when estimating the size of NEW crops, hence the adage about a big corn crop usually getting bigger in fall.USDA reports. I'm told that such trends are less reliable in soybeans, however, so I wouldn't be shocked by some negative surprises in November--even though the analysts I talked to this week are fairly bullish on soybeans.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 13

A reduction in stocks that were never really there to begin with?   Alrighty then.   Smiley Wink

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