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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 14

Update: Your World In Agriculture story on how a stronger U.S. Dollar impacting U.S. soybean exports, according to Luis Vieira's findings.

 

Full story: U.S. Soybean Contract Switches?

 

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After the close:

USDA Crop Progess Report:

 

Corn= 24% harvested vs. a 43% 5-year average.

 

Soybeans= 40% harvested vs. 53% 5-year average.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The December corn futures finished 11 cents higher at $3.57 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures closed 19 1/2 cents higher at $9.64.

December wheat futures finished 4 cents higher at $5.09.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $6.10 per short ton higher at $324.00; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.17 lower at $32.87.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $2.85 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

 

One Chicago-based trader tells me, "The soybean market is a record short...-100,000 on the lows.. now about -50,000. In years past, the largest short I had seen is 65,000...meanwhile Oct meal expired on a large $50 dollar inverse...signaling to the trade that product pipelines for soy product is still tight for both meal and oil.. market got technical when you threatened a close above chart gap at 956...i suppose that is the over and under tommorrow..."

 

Also, as I understand it, farmers lifting short hedges, slowed U.S. harvest and slowed Brazilian soybean plantings, all combined to push up the soybean market, today. Corn followed. Plus, on Brazil, I am learning from local Brazilian sources, Tuesday, that in many areas in Brazil the plants are dying because of the drought...and some areas will need to be replanted.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

The December corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.47 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures are trading 1 cent higher at $9.46.

December wheat futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $5.01.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $2.30 per short ton higher at $320.20; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.49 lower at $32.55.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.61 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points higher.

 

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Director of Grains and Energy, says the markets are we are seeing new hedging being done by farmers on this rally.

"A lot of farmers harvesting and our cash contacts are saying that 1/3 of the beans are being delivered on previous sales, 1/3 are getting stored and 1/3 are getting spot sold. So on big up days, which we have seen 2 in a row, I’m sure we ran into some of the “stored” beans getting sold. A lot of guys get 10 days free storage and then they wait to see the market action in that window.
 
The South American weather is a concern as well which we view as one of the reasons for the rally, but we have to be reminded that on nice price spikes that we do have a lot of cash soybeans in the country to be sold.
 
Rallies will be hard fought in our view, but the bears are getting a little less ferocious based on the technical action of the market. So far this week, we have made higher lows and higher highs, not a bearish trend at all to be honest.
 
Hope this helps, but this is what I am hearing today from the cash guys. Harvest is gangbusters in MN, NW Iowa and NE/SD, the areas where the rain was a miss," Ward says.

Mike

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At 9:50am:

Soybeans are off their highs, now only up 3 cents. Corn and wheat are lower. Soybeans shot up, but when it was determined that corn couldn't follow, the sellers stormed the place and beans set back.

 

Update: Brazil's soybean planting is being delayed by rain, much like the harvest in the Midwest. As of today, soybean planting in Mato Grosso is just 8.5% complete.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 1 cents higher at $3.47 per bushel.

 


November soybean futures are trading 13 cents higher at $9.59.

December wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $5.03.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $5.10 per short ton higher at $323.00; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.01 lower at $33.03.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.57 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

Early calls: Corn is 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.16 per barrel lower.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen higher, as major banks report earnings.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 14

Gap filled beans
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 14

Vr pockets are getting smaller by the daySmiley Happy
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 14

CME Group News:

As part of its recently announced restructuring, CME Group said today it will reduce the company's global workforce this week by roughly 5 percent or about 150 positions, in a company press release. The majority of eliminations will come from technology, with the balance of positions coming from corporate and administrative functions.

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 14

What is going on in the soybean market?  These volumes the last few days are huge.  Some of the biggest I can remember in years.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 14

Today's volume for Nov. soybeans was over 208,000. The trade volume for Dec. corn was 180,000 contracts. Big numbers.

 

Mike

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