Floor Talk October 16

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 1 cent higher at $7.38. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 1 1/4 cents higher at $14.93. Dec. wheat futures close 1/4 of a cent lower at $8.47 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.46 higher at $50.47. The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $3.30 per short ton lower at $452.80.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 105 points higher.

Mike

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At 1:20pm:

The markets are mixed, with soybeans higher and corn, wheat lower.

One analyst says that after breaking hard Monday on a continuation of the harvest price correction we have been in since last month, we saw profit taking Tuesday. "This pulled grains up in early trade, but they sold the rally into mid-session. It's hard for corn to hold gains as demand has dropped to marketing year lows even after a $1.10 break in price. China's corn is cheaper than U.S. corn now, and without China buying it tells us we have to find a price lower to find foreign business. Domestic feeders and ethanol guys await harvest low signals before they will enter. That price for corn could be in the gap at 6.75. We're still 1.80 higher than a year ago this time. We could see some more price strength Thursday, if rumors turn out true China was in buying large bean tonnage last week to show up on Thursday's Weekly Export Sales report. A report day rally will be sold with a resumption of the harvest correction."

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $7.37. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 9 1/2 cents higher at $15.02. Dec. wheat futures are trading unchanged at $8.48 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.39 higher at $50.40. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $457.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.22 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 121 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $7.43. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 10 cents higher at $15.03. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $8.51 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.31 higher at $50.32. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.90 per short ton higher at $459.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.18 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces Tuesday that an 'unknown' buyer purchased 110,150 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.

Mike

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At 6:00am:

Early calls:  Corn 6-8 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.05 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher ahead of Goldman Sachs and Coca-Cola earnings.

World=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Wow..........could be interesting in the financial world this AM...........citigroup..............

[farmer46]

Yes, When a CEO leaves in a hurry, as a investor I get worried.  As a owner of Citi stock, I have been hanging on trying to get back to even.  About $40. a share for me.  I believe, As Citi goes,   the banking world goes.  Could effect the amount of money in play in  the grain markets, if the bank has some deep unrealized lost.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

And more soya off the shelf.......

The great soya robbery.........

[sw363535]

Mike,

Two left handed questions come to mind-------how do you sell that much soy to someone and not know who they are??  🙂

Did a bag of money just show up on the doorstep with a note that we took beans in the night??

I know the answers to these so humor me----the picture comes up in my warped mind everytime I read "unknown destinations".

Quote from fcstone news this morning

with the technical damage done yesterday and lacking fresh fundamental support; Japan’s pur- chase of Ukrainian corn overnight (following the US-ARG booking Friday) underscores the overpriced nature of U.S. supplies on the world market...

If the market does not have trend established------- then there is definitly a trend established in the mind of creator of this statement.

I would say the market is trying to find a "Comfort" level for the end user at this time.  Too cheap and supply disappears.  Too high and ...................................

[Mizzou_Tiger]

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Oct16_12-Brazil-Assumes-Leadership-Role-as-Worlds-Largest-Soy-Pr...

mean while in other news.............an old phrase was retired from the books today, "don't count your chickens before they hatch"..............it appears there is no longer a need since we have apparently figured everything out...........

[roarintiger1]

One thing comes to mind when I hear that the U.S. is losing export business because our price is too high.... Those countries are selling too low.      

[Palouser]

The quote you supplied, ".... underscores the overpriced nature of U.S. supplies on the world market...", is very illustrative of a basic misunderstanding of how the global grain trade works. The quote reveals the assumption that if we just priced our grain lower then we could sell it for a lower price than Ukraine (in this case). It is absolutely false. If we DID post a lower price Ukraine would just lower their price. The idea that wwe are 'overpriced' is probably a relic from the ag policy wars resulting from F2F when agribiz was trying to convince farmers that selling at less than a breakeven price was good because we could drive the rest of the globe out of business and reserve market share for ourselves (which was truly one of the most bizarre and corrupt thinking ever promoted from that sector). It IS true that corn off the West Coast is VERY expensive. But the export business is booming from there.

Ukraine has limited supplies. The globe has limited supplies. We will be the dependable supplier even if we are the residual supplier. Location and transport tends to determine this. We may be higher priced but have advantages the market can't ignore. Stability, quality, quantity and reliability. We'll have no trouble selling our grains.

[giolucas]

Charts look bearish, ending Harvest cycle is bearish but dwindling stocks of soybeans could be bullish.     Do I sell down to 14.70 or do I buy at 15 and hold my hat......???????

[sw363535]

Thanks palouser,  good points

It was surely a demand / customer driven statement from a service that is usually pretty neutral.