Floor Talk October 2

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 1/2 of a cent higher at $3.89 1/4.  Nov. soybean futures finished 3 cents lower at $8.74 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures finished 5 cents lower at $5.13.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $2.70 per short ton lower at $301.20. Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.74 higher at $28.06. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.79 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher.

Mike

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At 1pm:

Corn has turned higher, soybeans remain a bit lower. The trade is not surprised;

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says that the only real reason to rally today has been US Dollar weakness and it is what brought all these markets back from the dead. 
“Otherwise, a slow affair with people willing to sell rallies ahead of the harvest progress which should be pretty strong this weekend.  FC Stone and Informa show no need to worry about supplies in the estimates today.  Both are showing pretty strong production,” Scoville says.
He adds, “Farmers are not selling. So, it is easier to buy and see the market head up a bit, but plenty of people appear willing to sell against the weekly highs pretty much across the board.  I think ideas are that futures can fade a bit here and work a bit lower, but even so lots of ideas the harvest lows are in or close.  So lots of people just kind of jobbing the market these days including me.”
 
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, says that it doesn’t appear to be much buying interest in front of next week’s WASDE. 
“Certainly a lot of chatter about a 1-1.5 million acre cut in soybeans, given the FSA data but I have my doubts.  With the Quarterly Stocks behind us, there’s no main driver until next Friday,” Meyer says.
Wheat had some early strength, mostly due to the large Hedge Fund short in the market, he says. “But, the wheat market will face a tough test should it retry the $5.25 level.  Beans are being pulled in opposite directions, as export sales were quickly counterbalanced by continuing very good harvest reports.  Corn is somewhere in the middle.  I would not get too excited about corn until we see a close above $3.95-$4.00, while the same holds true for beans above the $9.00-$9.05 area.”

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Dec. corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $3.88.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $8.75.

Dec. wheat futures are 3 cents lower at $5.15.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $302.70. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.36 higher at $27.68. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.60 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Dec. corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.85.  Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $8.73.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $5.13.

Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $307.90. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.08 lower at $27.24. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.02 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points lower.

Mike

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At 7:35am:

News Bits:

--INTL FCStone has updated its 2015 yield estimates, ahead of next week's USDA October Supply/Demand Report. The firm pegged the national corn yield at 167.0 bushels per acre, up from 165.9 bpa last month, though still below the USDA’s 167.5 bpa. Soybean yields at 46.9 bpa, up a bushel and a half from last month but still below the government’s 47.1 bpa September estimate.

--For September, CME Group agricultural commodities volume averaged 1.1 million contracts per day, up 3 percent compared with the prior-year period, according to a company announcement Friday.

Mike

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At 7:15am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower and wheat 4-5 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.18 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, with non-farm payroll numbers ahead.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

I wonder how far ahead of normal harvest is in the corn belt this year?  In other words, are we getting yield numbers in now that normally we'd expect in a couple of weeks?  Will harvest prices therefore be ahead of normal?

I cut one small field of soybeans, maybe a smidgeon on the green side, but they had lot of weeds, some greens stems and so forth.  Most beans would crack when bitten but a few were cruncy or even mushy.   

A lot of corn coming out now, it seems more are doing corn than soybeans.  I suppose that is because the corn seemed to dry down so early and farmers are worried about standability and at the same time hoping the beans freeze before they shatter.

[CitiFarmer]

Marketeye, I appreciate all your information but why not add U.S. crude oil prices to your Brent Oil prices as this is what most of us deal with vs. Brent Crude?

Just a thought.

[marketeye]

CitiFarmer,

I will look into that. If it will help you, it will help me.

Thanks,

Mike