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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 21

At the close:

The December corn futures settled 7 3/4 cents higher at $3.56 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures finished 20 cents higher at $9.64.

 

December wheat futures closed 5 3/4 cents higher at $5.19.

 

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $13.50 per short ton higher at $342.90; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.06 higher at $31.76.

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.71 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 176 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

The December corn futures are trading 4 cents higher at $3.52 per bushel. Dec. '15 corn is 3 1/2 cents higher at $3.98.

 

November soybean futures are trading 14 1/4 cents higher at $9.58. Nov. '15 beans are 12 cents higher at $9.73.

 

December wheat futures are trading 9 cents higher at $5.22.


For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $9.20 per short ton higher at $338.60; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.09 lower at $31.61.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.56 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 167 points higher.

 

Jacob Burks, First Capitol Ag's, Risk Advisor, says the market rally is supported by a slower harvest pace. "It's built on the slow harvest rate we saw from Monday's Crop Progress Report.  The rally pushed us above the 50-day moving average and money continues to flow in.  China’s GDP is the lowest since 2009, but better than anticipated.

On the bearish side, "Midwest weather is very conducive to harvest and South American weather is behaving," Burks says.

 

 

Mike

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At 10:20am;

 

The December corn futures are trading 6 1/2 cents higher at $3.54 per bushel. Dec. '15 corn is 5 1/2 cents higher at $4.00.

 

November soybean futures are trading 16 3/4 cents higher at $9.61. Nov. '15 beans are 14 1/2 cents higher at $9.75.

December wheat futures are trading 7 1/4 cents higher at $5.20.

 

Two things that could be helping soybeans rise, today. First, less soybean prospects from Brazil, due to weather problems. Plus, Argentina's farmers are expected to plant less soybeans in 2015, due to a lack of financial backing.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $3.48 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures are trading 4 cents higher at $9.48.

December wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $5.16.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $1.10 per short ton higher at $330.50; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.08 higher at $31.78.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.17 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 87 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:00am:

Early calls: Corn is 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.19 per barrel higher.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen higher, as more companies beat earnings projections.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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6 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

One of the factors I track at this time of year is whether there is any carry in the market.  I would be nice to see the July corn, etc.  Also, I'd like to see the first month of the new crop, so Nov 15 beans and Dec 15 corn would be nice to see.

 

That might be a lot of work to add, and maybe it would goof up the format and make it to busy and complicated.  Just mentioning some of the other info I like.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

What will be done with the acres in Argentina if not planted to beans?  Wheat? Fallow? Go back k to grass?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

Mike,

 

I also have news for the wheat guys in the USA. In Brazil, after the floods in Rio Grande do Sul there are talks of a possible loss of one million tons in the state, but there is not an official estimate. That is bullish news for the US in the short-term. However, there are news from more supply of the grain from Argentina into Brazil. Argentina's government has been releasing more export quotas little by little and Brazil will have signnificant domestic supply from the state of Paraná. So there is an expectation that Brazil just would import nearly one million tons from the US. From early last yeat until today, the South American country imported 5.5 million tons of wheat from the United States and several times the external tariff (rated at 10%) applied on the cereal coming from countries outside of the sur (the economic bloc that includes Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina) was dropped. For some, such as the Brazilian Association of Wheat Industries, it won't be necessary to drop the tariff in 2015, but some analysts disagree. 

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

Mike, I'm not so sure about Argentina dropping soybean area. We are still getting started on planting, but I doubt the area will decrese.

Both the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange and Rosario Board of Trade expect 20.6M hectares for soybeans (according to RBoT we

could reach 20.9M). That number qould be a new record for soybeans.

Though there will be some land left unplanted and switched to other activities, soybeans should see an increase in area, mostly from farms where corn and sunflower used to be seeded.

 

Hobby, if not planted with soy, those acres wouldn't go to wheat, it's too late for that. They'd either go to fallow or used for cattle, and you'd see those changes in the marginal areas, far from the productive core region. Productive land, if in doubt, will go to soybeans.

 

Last, but not least, Luis. It's true that our goverment's been releasing export quotas for wheat, but most of it for flour. Yet yesterday, 0.5M tons where announced to be released, both for this campaing's wheat and corn, after realising we had enough stocks of wheat and that we'd get about 11M tons this year.

Regarding the last part, both the agricultural and economic ministers will have a meeting today, and it's expected that between 2M and 3M tons of 14/15 wheat will be released for exports. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

Caveman,

 

Regarding the possibility of less soybean acres in Argentina, Gustavo Grobocopatel of Los Grobo group was the source who said that. He said that there are severe problems that could result in one million less hectares than thought in 2015 because of lack of financial access in Córdoba, San Luis and other provinces in the North. I think is something to consider reminding that he is the biggest farmer of his country.

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 21

Luis,

 

Gustavo Grobocopatel is, without doubt, one of the most influencial farmers in this country, if not the most. Even more, he's one of not so many farmers who are capable of staying out of the goverment/farmers fight, which might make he's opinion more valuable and objective. And he's calling the plays from the field, not a desktop.

What I'm trying to say is that this guy definitly knows more than I do about this matter.

If he says San Luis, Córdoba and the north should see a reduction, he's probably right. Add to it that those provinces ain't having the best of wheathers so far.

 

The thing is, what happens with those acres, in normal humidity conditions, ussually used for other crops? That's where the lack of financing might push farmers to plant soybeans if they choose to plant something. 

With planting still kicking off, it's a bit early to be sure.

 

That being said, I also think both argentine exchanges tend to present rather accurate statistics (their research departments also know more than I do) and this time they are both consistent with the idea of having extra acres in soybeans. That's why I still think it's possible to have a record area this year.

 

 

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