Floor Talk October 22

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.61. Nov. soybean futures contract finished 12 cents higher at $15.46. Dec. wheat futures settled 5 3/4 cents higher at $8.78 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract ended $0.08 higher at $51.66. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $7.20 per short ton higher at $471.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.79 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.65. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 15 cents higher at $15.55. Dec. wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $8.80 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.27 higher at $51.85. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $7.60 per short ton higher at $471.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.59 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points lower.

One analyst says, "I think beans are running on the South American weather which is too dry in the Mapito region and too wet in RGDS and into Argentina.  I see no real demand.  The harvest should be about over and that means the beans are locked in the bin and it will take some price to pry the bin doors open again, which is bullish as well.  Lots of talk of a harvest low.  Wheat seems to be too much rain in Argentina and not enough in West Australia and maybe the Great plains too.  Weather is good otherwise.  Demand is strong but not so much for us, but world prices are creeping higher and we sill start to do biz soon.  Corn having problems as the COF on Friday once again showed less demand."

.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.63. Nov. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents higher at $15.47. Dec. wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $8.83 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.43 higher at $52.00. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton higher at $469.10.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.29 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Mike

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At 8am:

--S. Korea secures 50,000 tons of U.S. wheat Monday.

--Cash basis prices remain strong, some analysts Monday signal that the fall lows may be in and higher futures prices could be seen between now and 2013. What do you think?

Now that harvest is all but over, are you still bullish on these markets, headed to the end of the year?

Mike

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At 7am:

Early calls:  Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 12-14 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.61 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, rebounding from Friday's nosedive. Caterpiller announced Monday that its third quarter earnings jumped 50%.

World=Mixed.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Nebrfarmr]

Am I bullish?  Yes.  How bullish?  I don't know.  I think back to a couple times I held out for another nickle, and sold for a quarter less, so I'm thinking if the bids are good end of the year, I may take them.

I have never, ever, ever been called so many times, by so many people, continually offering better basis, or free hauling, or free hauling with better basis, than I have in the last 60 days. 
For a little background, I do not raise much corn at all, most of the acres I run, are grass for cattle, and I also sell as much as practical to local cattle feeders (shorter haul for my single axle truck).  For me to get calls, from buyers I maybe sold 5,000 or at most 10,000 bushels, 3-5 years ago, tells me that they are already looking to buy more bushels.

I have already been offered 8 cents over (board) for nearby, or 8 cents over, plus trucking, with sale date and delivery, anytime from now until March 1st, determined by me, or they will come get it right away, free trucking, and will match board price, anytime between now and April 1st.

I have never been called, with offers to buy grain, before the end of the year before. 

Now, to be smart enough, to know when to sell, LOL.

[sixtysixx]

more than ever! like Nebrfarmr said there are some strange things goin on with these buyers.

[docharing]

It is hard to be bullish, especially with all these posts about demand destruction. LOL

[marketeye]

Nebrfarmr,

Very interesting. You have confirmed what I have been learning. Thanks for sharing.

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

mike, its happening all over the place...........for some it started in 2011........others 2012..........E-plants are at $8 already.......its October!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I still think the USDA is WAYYYYYYYYYYY too long on the supply side..........and they have demand hammered down pretty darn far...............

in the middle of all this is an election...........

IMO there is a huge supply shock coming in corn...............and oilseeds may not be far behind, although $18 soya may have been it..........

[highyields]

Send them to SE NE if they get short,  Tell them to bring trucks.   They'll have to buy through the coop though, since most to all the corn went to the elevator this year.   

[c-x-1]

so far, narrowist (smallest) trading range in corn for months!