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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, October 23, 2019

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.86 1/4. March corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.98.

Nov. soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $9.33 1/4. Jan. soybean futures are 1/4¢ lower at $9.48.

Dec. wheat futures are 2¢ higher at $5.20.



December soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton higher at $308.10.

 December soy oil futures are 0.18 cents lower at 30.67¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.77 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.

Mike

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At 9:25am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.86 1/4. March corn futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $3.97.

Nov. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.31 1/4. Jan. soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.45 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 3/4 lower at $5.17 3/4.

December soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $306.90.

December soy oil futures are 0.16 cents lower at 30.69¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.26 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points higher.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 128,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are still digesting what the Chinese announcement on trade tariffs means for the soybean market.

“The big headline on Tuesday was tied to comments that China might offer tariff exemptions on a sizable amount of US soybeans. The key word is “might”. If traders expected it to really happen, we should have seen prices make a convincing move higher. However, the soybean market was nearly flat at the end of trading on Tuesday. The lackluster price action that followed this headline warrants caution for the soybean bulls. Unless we see soybean exports pick up and confirm this headline, the bears will try to regain control of prices,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Corn exports are falling further behind the USDA pace on a weekly basis. Ethanol margins have not been profitable for much of 2019. A combination of decreased demand and lower production could leave the corn market in a trading range until a trade deal is reached.”

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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8 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 23, 2019

Al chose to stick his head back in the china sand.

Harvest is going to get downplayed and covered with falling demand stories when in fact the 2019 year has been a year of extremely good demand in spite of several "suspected truth" stories created this last year in accord with the China trade story.(in itself probably not worth the ink it did or didn't take.)

But harvest19 is the story....... and will be causing ripples in ag for years to come.

 

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Or, it could be both supply and demand.

There is no doubt that soybean sales to date are farther behind 2018 and much farther behind 2017.  If corn exports continue to lag it will have an effect on the balance sheet.

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: Or, it could be both supply and demand.

Are bean exports down due to lack of demand or because the beans are not there to export?  Unlike the BOT, in the real “physical “ world you can’t sell what you don’t have. 

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of demand, Well, it's well understood ....

What's causing the lack of demand?  Well, it's well understood that there simply aren't that many beans left in Brazil and the current price isn't high by historical standards, so maybe there is a real lack of demand.  The global economy is definitely slow and getting slower all the time, maybe people just don't have the money to buy beans. 

  But take the EU for instance, last year at this time they had purchased 13.3 MMT, so far this year, less than 1 MMT.  My guess is that when trump threaten them with Trade War a couple of months ago, they put soybean purchases on hold until they see where it goes.

  As far as supply goes, we went into Sept with a billion bushel carryout not usual 200-400 million bushel so the immediate supply shouldn't be a problem.  Supply might become an issue later but not now.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of demand, Well, it's well understood ....

All it would take to boost demand is for the USDA to come clean on the REAL production numbers of corn and soybeans.  If the truth was told, buyers would be lining up at the door, trying to secure their needed supplies.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 23, 2019

I heard Al Kluis on the Dubya-H-O Big Show and he`s always a great guest on those shows.  He said "The crop will eventually come in"  (even though it`s two weeks late) .  I see prices not improving and thought maybe the long range forecast is drier, but I don`t see that, it`s going to be a bearcat to finish harvest.  Field after field of beans standing, some water in between rows, seeping out of hillsides, they have to be "pumpkins" in the pods and the calendar pages keep flipping. 

Is it realistic to think beans will field dry to 15% at this point?  Frost and dew til noon and the Sun gets mighty low at 4;00pm.  I`m sure cases of beans popping out of pods or sprouting will occur.  Nuisance rains and snows right up to "winter" is a definite possibility.  We could have a billion bushel of beans written off the books, quite easily I would think.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 23, 2019

Unit , grain  trains ,  running  in  reverse  from  port  destinations   -  maybe  - ? 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 23, 2019

We might have to import beans from China..hopefully with a tariff  Smiley Happy

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