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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 28, 2020

At the close:

 

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 14 1/2¢ lower at $4.01 1/2. March corn futures ended 12 1/4¢ lower at $4.04 1/2.

Nov. soybean futures settled 25¢ lower at $10.57 1/4. January soybean futures finished 21 3/4¢ lower at $10.54 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures closed 7¢ lower at $6.08 3/4.


Dec. soymeal futures ended $7.30 per short ton lower at $376.70.

 Dec. soy oil futures closed 0.69 cent lower at 33.42¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.20 per barrel lower (5.56%) at $37.37. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 785 points (2.86%) lower at 26,677 points.

Mike

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At midday:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 11 1/2¢ lower at $4.04 1/2. March corn futures are 10 1/4¢ lower at $4.06 1/2.

Nov. soybean futures are 19 1/2¢ lower at $10.62 1/4. January soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ lower at $10.59.

Dec. wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $6.11 3/4.

Dec. soymeal futures are $5.70 per short ton lower at $378.30.

 Dec. soy oil futures are 0.64 cent lower at 33.47¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.42 per barrel lower (6.12%) at $37.15. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 825 points (3.00%) lower at 26,638 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:50am:

 

The farm markets drop double digits Wednesday.

 

Read the full story here.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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7 Replies
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 28, 2020

Watch basis moves this week. 

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 28, 2020

Every week down double digits then fight for week to get back to where it started.  Just profit takers being greedy right?  They were doing so well too shameful.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 28, 2020

Their ATM run out of funds?

Was nice while it lasted.

Raining in Brazil now.

3 weeks Late but still good for their summer crops.

Crops not only thing down.

End of month profit taking.

If I would get more darts I could get more reasons...

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 28, 2020

 

corn-2.jpg

Did a little drive-around yesterday and today.

Lots of these in the area and some beanies too.

Been below freezing lately but starting to warm up.

Going to make the hills nice and greasy.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Market needs to stop and catch it's breath before climbing that next hill.

nt

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Honored Advisor

Re: Market needs to stop and catch it's breath before climbing that next hill.

BQCI Afternoon Comments
Risk off session as covid count and election jitters stymie advance.
Covid concerns, approaching month end, Nov deliveries for soybeans and improving weather all combine to push grain and oilseed values lower. Risk off sentiment drops Dow 3.43% or around 943 points. Covid cases reported in the U.S. 73,240 today, with 465,671 reported worldwide. Buyers hard to find in today’s session, corn, beans and meal all gap lower overnight and continue to sell off as the day progressed. Dec corn dropped through 10-day m/a support and finished the day just above the 20-day moving average at $3.99. Nov bean charts did the same, gaping lower overnight and setting a course due south through the rest of the day, finishing near 20-day support area at $10.55. First notice for Nov stuff is Friday, please trade accordingly. Dec HRS has moved 35 cents from highs set last week. Dec closed below 20 M/A at $5.54 ¼ in today’s session. Does not bode well near term. Chinese Central Party is meeting this week to chart course for the next 15 years. They are also looking at a 5-year plan that may include infrastructure spending and reallocation of strategic reserves. USDA to release 10- year baseline data next week. Fund money in liquidation mode in front of the election next week also adding to weakness today. Prices likely to remain under pressure until current climate changes, look for a couple more days of weakness, but the rate of decline should slow. Soybeans do not really need to attract more demand, and corn is getting close. Big export programs on both will still require cash movement into the pipeline, with timing critical, shutting off the producer here not a great plan.

Jordan buys 120,000 MT of wheat. Looks like 60K Russian for last half Feb shipment at $279 CnF Aqaba, the other 60 likely Romanian via CHS at $279.90 CnF for FH March. Egypt bought 110,000 MT of soybeans, South Korea bought 207,000 MT of optional origin corn, and unknown procured 120,000 MT of beans on today’s USDA daily reporting. Export sales estimates for Thursday’s report 200-700k on wheat, 700-1,500k on corn, 1,000-2,000k on beans, 100-450k on meal and 5-40k on bean oil.

Ethanol production sees uptick for the week. Total weekly production at 6.587 million barrels, up 3.07% from week ago levels but still behind last years pace by 6.27%. Ethanol stocks listed at 19.601 million barrels down 0.61% from last week and down 7.10% from last year. Stocks currently at near 5-year lows.

Sporadic rains continue across central Brazil today, coverage scattered, and volume look light. Northeastern sections of the country look to be missing out. Temps are varied, cooler where the rain is falling, but still pushing into the low 90’s in the dry parts. Not seeing any precip on the map currently in Ukraine or southern Russia. U.S. 1-5 day indicates a return to drier conditions in the southern plains, 6-10 day looks dry and warmer across the Midwest and Norther Plains giving a window to advance harvest before more precip returns in the 11-15 models. First week in the Black Sea area has some light precip potential for Ukraine and moderate temps, better rain potential in Eastern Ukraine with some showers into southern Russia appears for the 6-10 day. With more slight potential for rains in the 11-15 day, but confidence in those rains is limited. Brazil to see showers in the first week but drier conditions return in the 6-10 and continue into the 11-15-day outlooks. Temps to remain seasonal for the first 10 days, before turning warmer in the last week of the outlook.

Crude oil weaker on concerns covid resurgence will impact tepid recovery, dollar sharply higher as flight to safety throttles emerging markets, the euro and the rubble. Dow down 943 points.
Calendar: Nov First Notice Day (10/30) Daylight Savings Begins (11/1); Grain and Oilseeds Crushing Reports (11/2); Election Day (11/3); US Trade Balance (11/4); WASDE (11/10); Veteran's Day (11/11)
Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry
Spread Carry Chg Full % of FC
CZ20/CH21 -2 3/4 -2 1/4 -27 1/4 10%
SX20/SF21 2 1/2 -3 1/4 -22 3/4 -11%
MWZ20/MWH21 -12 3/4 - 3/4 -25 1/2 50%
WZ20/WH21 1 1/4 1 1/4 -20 -6%
KWZ20/KWH21 -6 3/4 1/4 -19 1/2 35%
Wash out in values also shows in Dec March corn spread, after showing slight inverse yesterday, very heavy volume pushes the spread back out to 2 3/4 carry today. Front end bean spread active as well with inverse relaxing as we approach first notice day Friday.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn 25-cts (expanded 40-cts, effective 11/2); Soybeans 60-cts (expanded $1.05, 11/2); Minneapolis Wheat 60-cts (expanded NA); KC Wheat 40-cts (expanded 60-cts, 11/2) ; Chicago Wheat 40-cts (expanded 60-cts, 11/2)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
Symbol Close Chg High Low Support Resist 20-Day 50-Day
CZ20 401 1/2 -14 1/2 415 1/4 400 1/2 399 1/4 415 1/2 399 376 1/4
SX20 1057 1/4 -25 1081 3/4 1056 3/4 1048 3/4 1081 3/4 1055 1006 3/4
MWZ20 552 -9 1/2 560 3/4 549 1/4 546 562 554 1/4 542 3/4
WZ20 608 3/4 -7 614 1/2 600 3/4 597 1/4 614 3/4 606 3/4 571 1/2
KWZ20 543 1/4 -6 548 3/4 532 527 1/4 547 3/4 543 3/4 502 1/4
SMZ20 376.70 -7.30 383.60 371.30 369.4 383.5 367.1 338.9
BOZ20 33.42 -0.69 34.11 33.20 32.72 34.03 33.27 33.22
Day In History: 1919 Volstead Act passed by US Congress, establishing prohibition, despite President Woodrow Wilson's veto. Bad things do happen in Congress.

 

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Market needs to stop and catch it's breath before climbing that next hill.

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Oct28_20-Spot-Prices-for-Soy-and-Corn-Continue-to-Set-Records-in...

 

Cupboards about bare and they are just planting. Two months to get to early harvest four months to really resupply and a high percentage of that is committed.

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