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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 29, 2020

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $4.00. March corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $4.02.

Nov. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $10.54 1/4. January soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $10.52.

Dec. wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $6.05.

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.50 per short ton higher at $378.20.

Dec. soy oil futures are 0.40 cent lower at 33.02¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.54 per barrel lower (4.12%) at $35.85. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points (0.02%) lower at 26,515 points.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

 

Corn drops below the $4 mark, Thursday. 

 

Read full market story here.

 

Thanks,

 

Miek

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8 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Oct28_20-Spot-Prices-for-Soy-and-Corn-Continue-to-Set-Records-in...

There is only one source for corn and soybeans of volume in the world for next four months.

Record hot sales. This is animal feed not tofu and corn flakes. The animals have to eat daily. 

I'm getting tired of the Al Kluelesses type of the world controlling this thing, monopolies are supposed to be illegal.

The CBOT has gotten to that level. 

Only ethonal would be effected by the China virus in another lockdown but grain usage will not be effected as great as assumed as ddg's not available are replaced by increased grain use. 

Demand for grain may not be as elastic in the near term as is assumed by traders with limited knowledge and no skin in the game. 

This does not mean they can't crash the market or attempt to. It may have to play out like 2012 did and be all about basis making up the difference. That's what's going on in Brazil right now.

The bean thing is gonna get snug.

The corn thing will depend on location of supply and tightness of the fists of the owners of that supply.

USDA says there is 2 billion too many bu of corn. Betya the real number is 25+% smaller, and much of it will be out of position and some as always just isn't for sale at the time.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Agreed, well written.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Agreed, well written, but pretty important to remember that the specs have already bought this issues x10, so is everything you just said already in the price?  I continue to point out, and no one will respond, Marketeye never responds to me, but the "Spread" position is simply obscene.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Time could you explain on at least expand on your spreads ideas and conclusions?

Calls, puts, spreads etc are above my pay grade.

All I see is there is no carry.

I as an old geezer farmer just haven't been able to grasp all those new fangled thingies designed to protect my bottom line but empty out my bank account.

My job as a farmer (not grower) is to raise a crop as economicly as possible then sell it. 

Then lather, rinse, repeat the next year...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Time:

I have no idea if ALL those things are priced in totally or not.

I know beans went from a 7 in the front month to +$10 cash few dayz ago. More than 25%  improvement

Corn about same time went from a 2 as first # to almost $4 cash. 33% move. So something was getting "priced in" . not sure with 3 plus months to go till next crop harvest the show is over.  Or should be...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Everyone`s area is different, but prior to harvest there was a physical movement of old crop.  Some jumped the gun and swept the bins in August for $2.70 and a big slug came in at $3.30 cash pre-harvest.  So the $3.70 corn and $9.50 beans out of the field lead to cash strapped farmers understandably wanting to thread the needle.

My guess is the "bull" is a bit bloated and a little foundered.  Covid is a easy excuse. But after November 3rd capital gains taxes could go up a lot, Maria Bartiromo says there`s a "Trump basket" and a "Biden basket" of investments, some of that rejiggering might have a commodity effect. Then there`s "rain in Brazil" so who knows.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

Hobby, if you look at the COT data, the Other Reportables are shown holding a huge "spreading" position. By virtue of the spreads and price action, this just about has to be long nearby beans and short deferred beans, or more likely short something else...the else is the question.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 29, 2020

I’m not sure this move is driven by “specs”

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