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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, October 3, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.88 3/4. March corn futures closed 1¢ higher at $4.00 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures settled 2¢ lower at $9.11 3/4. Jan. soybean futures settled 1 3/4¢ lower at $9.26.

Dec. wheat futures closed 1/4¢ lower at $4.88 1/2.



December soymeal futures ended $2.70 per short ton lower at $302.90.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.68 higher at 29.89¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.12 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points higher.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 134¢ higher at $3.87 3/4. March corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.99 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.10 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.25.

Dec. wheat futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.89 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $2.50 per short ton lower at $303.10.

 December soy oil futures are $0.44 higher at 29.65¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.72 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 43 points lower.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the corn and soybean markets both seem to be struggling to find further reason to move beyond the technical resistance that lies just above each of those markets.

“Without something - yield data, positive news regarding trade, etc., we may be stuck in a very sideways trading pattern. A continuing wet pattern over the Corn Belt has halted significant harvest. Therefore, sample size on yield data is yet too small.

O’Connell added, “a breakout in corn beyond $4 could invite further buying and a move towards the 62% retracement levels of $4.27 per bushel. Beans will likely experience technical resistance every 20 cents ( 9.20,9.40,9.60 ) with 9.60 being the top end of the market since the start of the trade war,” O’Connell.

 

Mike

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At 8:40am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.87 1/4. March corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.97 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $9.13 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $9.24.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.87 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $0.70 per short ton lower at $304.90.

 December soy oil futures are $0.03 lower at 29.18¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.67 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

--Export sales of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year; and

--Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of white wheat for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for wheat began June 1 and soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors really want to see more harvest yields.

“Harvest continues to inch forward. Heavy rain continues in the north-central Corn Belt. U.S. grain prices are choppy, as we patiently await more yield results. What will be the real size of this year’s crop? It really feels like the lows are in for the year. The size of the crop will determine just how high we can rally,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The corn and soybean yields coming in, so far, show that corn yields are holding up near USDA estimates, but the soybean yields are a little disappointing,” Kluis stated.


On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows strong soybean figures.

Corn= 565,100 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000-850,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 2.076 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 800,000-1,500,000 mmt.

Wheat= 328,500 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 2,500 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-400,000 mt.

 

What say you? Is China back?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 3, 2019

I have heard many reports from corn and bean harvests ...... not one report of corn yields equal to last year so far(or good enough to consider normal)....there will be some good corn somewhere... but Al is trying to make news there.

swks       irrigated circle finished made 163.       Has a 185 average and was 208 last year.  quite disappointing

 

Scout tells me yields are basically disappointing on corn and beans.  He sees majority corn.

Corn acres were reduced so much locally that three local feedlots chose to avoid wet corn pits for the first time in 50+ years.......5 million bushels reduction...... it will be replaced by dry grains purchased hand to mouth  but it does reflect local reduction in acres and the dry fast finish of corn and its inability to hold moisture condition in the field.   Meaning maturity is rushed and volume is shrunk.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 3, 2019

Also ice on corn leaves as far south as I-70 in the Colby Kansas area this morning.... moving east and south today with colder air behind it.

Funny Al didn't mention that...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 3, 2019

Doesn't fit the day's agenda...

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 3, 2019

IT.  NEVER.  STOPS.  RAINING.

Another ride down central mid-Michigan.  Corn underwater.   No way to harvest.  Are there harvester submersibles? 

#LakeCorn

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Advisor

Re: Is China back? Maybe, if trump can keep his grubby little hands off the tariff button. But......

Is China back?  Maybe, if trump can keep his grubby little hands off the tariff button.

  But last year at this point despite China only having 1,265,841 MT spoken for, we had 20,109,004 MT total soybeans on the books.

   This year, despite China having 3,612,652 MT spoken for, we only have 14,294,943 MT total on the books.

 It appears that nobody is in any hurry to buy their soybeans this year, maybe because there's a global economic slowdown in progress. 

There was a very troubling US manufacturing report earlier, we'll know more tomorrow with the Jobs Report.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Is China back? Maybe, if trump can keep his grubby little hands off the tariff button. But......

I don't know about the tariff button, but I hope Trump has got his hands on the hammer and brings it down on the Chinese. 

My gosh driving down the interstate here in NW Ohio, the semi traffic is like never before.   It doesn't look like the economy is slowing down from here.  Also, I waited on a train this week that had 163 cars.........almost all were carrying 1 or 2 of the large shipping containers.   One train hauling what it would take 2-300 trucks to haul.

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Advisor

Re: And just what do you have against Christmas? ..

And just what do you have against Christmas?  Those toys need to be in the stores by Halloween or else.  Even trump knows better than ruin Christmas for the kids (and retailers). Is you middle name Scrooge by any chance.

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Advisor

Re: And just what do you have against Christmas? ..

Surprised the Lefts haven't demanded that Christmas be renamed....because Marxists don't believe in allowing religion of any kind.

Maybe Christmax...

or "Alternative Inclusive Holiday"

Honored Advisor

Re: Is China back? Maybe, if trump can keep his grubby little hands off the tariff button. But......

Thanks ...... I don't know how valid those stats are  but even using them we still sold 84% of what we did last year to China in this year of "terrible carnage" in trade war.....  If those stats are accurate...... the hype is a lot louder than reality......   Your stats say we sold 17.9 mmt to china this year as opposed to 21.3 mmt the year before.

Trade and blame trump is just too easy .. and the exagerations are tiring for the trader looking for the pinfull of reality in the political hay market....... What did we sell China and whose data is it.   Reuters says 2017 the US sold 32.8 mmt to china while Brazil sold 50.9 mmt.......and china charts seem to reflect that   

Reuters which is working primarily as the China(and progressive political consultant) news agency claimed that brazil exports to china were to jump to over 100 mmt(yet China national grain information centre, from Lui Lunan/China Daily) claim to only import 97 mmt total), this year Yet they claimed US exports world wide to be 56mmt or about half our production.  This year early jump into political year 2020 is making it real hard to find reality............ usda chart below .............. and no matter whose data you use for current imports into china, it does not reflect the death of half the pork population that our "Big Al's" like to report along with Reuters on a daily basis..(for nearly 2 years now.)  The more news sources we get the harder it is to find information you can report.

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