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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 31

At the close:

The December corn futures settled 2 3/4 cents higher at $3.76 per bushel. Dec '15 corn settled at $4.18.

 

November soybean futures finished 22 1/4 cents higher at $10.46 1/2.

December wheat futures ended 3 1/2 cents lower at $5.32.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract closed $9.00 per short ton higher at $389.00; Dec. soybean oil futures closed $0.49 higher at $34.80.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.99 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials, while setting a new record, are 152 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The December corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.70 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures are trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $10.27.

December wheat futures are trading 11 cents lower at $5.25.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $5.90 per short ton higher at $385.90; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.17 higher at $34.48.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $0.93 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 160 points higher.

 

Dustin Johnson, EHedger grain analyst, says that the market remains focused on the meal market.  "Beans actually look cheap, compared to meal.  Jan Crush is trading at 198 up 14.25 today.  Until this logistical nightmare is sorted out in meal, I can't be sure of anything for soybeans.  I think we have lost sight of the fact that soybean stocks are still going to be very abundant in the US and potentially a record stocks-are still looking at a record crop.  What will the trading environment look like in March, if South America is having a normal growing year with record bean acres and our meal demand is satisfied?
Also wheat is the weakest product on the board which makes sense because it has been the most sensitive to changes in the US $ index."

 

Mike

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At 10:35am:

Corn is now down 4 cents, soybeans are up a few ticks, and wheat down 10 cents.

 

International Grains Council did update their world production estimates yesterday.  They now expect world wheat production to reach 696.4 MMT, which is up 3.8 MMT from their estimate last month and would be 41.5 MMT higher than what was produced last year.  "As would be expected, there are some who will argue with the figure particularly with recent discussion about lower numbers expected from Russia but the undeniable truth is we do not have supply issues with wheat at this time.  Quality and location may be another story," Daniel Hueber, The Hueber Report, wrote in a daily note to customers.

The International Grains Council also raised their corn estimate for world crop production at a new record of 948.4 million metric tons, up 5.2 mmt.  Production last year was estimated to be 862.7 mmt. 

The International Grains Council lowered their estimate for world soybean production to 307 mmt versus 310 mmt on the last estimate.  " market did not bat an eye as this is still a record number as are the projected world ending stocks," Hueber wrote.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The December corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.71 per bushel.

 

November soybean futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $10.18.

December wheat futures are trading 7 3/4 cents lower at $5.28.

For Dec. soybean meal futures, the contract is $1.50 per short ton lower at $378.50; Dec. soybean oil futures are trading $0.13 lower at $34.18.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil is $1.55 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 140 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:00am:

Early calls: Corn is 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents lower and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.93 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Seen lhigher as Japan starts a quantitative easing program.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
CitiFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 31

The IGC Report I looked at showed 2014/2015 World Wheat Production at 718 MMT and World Corn Production at 980 MMT.

 

I saw the same 307 MMT figure for Soybeans in the report I had a link to.

 

Just curious where the other figures came from or perhaps I am looking at the wrong marketing year or report.

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 31

The heck happened in the last minute of trading in soybeans?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 31

glenlivet18,

 

I heard from the floor that end-of-month buying set in, at the bell. Funds were reportedly buyers of 10,000 contracts in soybeans. One guy placing an 81 lot soymeal option (405,000 bushels), at the bell, was not happy with his order being filled as the rally hit, on the close. I'll pass along more, as I get it here at the world's most deopendable market information center.

 

Mike

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 31

Your kidding right? 

 

81 lot order placed without price limits...

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk October 31

We may be talking about different things, and I may have had bad info when I asked that question.  I checked my charts 3 minutes after the close and it had January dropping like 14 cents in the last MINUTE, closing at 1042.  March and July showed similar moves.  However, I called my broker and they said Jan closed at 1049.25.  My trading platform is now showing that price, though on the chart it still shows a huge drop in the last minute, on the actual bar chart.  So I guess there was a data feed issue or something.  Reason I was so concerned is that I'm long from 1040 with a stop working at 1040 and I thought great, we're going to gap lower Sunday night.

 

But thanks for looking into that.  I always like hearing news straight from the floor.

 

And to show what I was seeing, here's a screenshot of my platform on a 1-minute chart.  Closing price is highlighted on the left.  I don't trade 1-minute charts but just to illustrate:

 

2014-10-31_1429.png

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