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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.84 3/4. March corn futures ended 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.97.

Nov. soybean futures closed 4 1/2¢ higher at $9.16 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $9.30 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures ended 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.90.



December soymeal futures closed $0.80 per short ton higher at $303.70.

 December soy oil futures ended 0.03 cents lower at 29.86¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.32 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 296 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.85 3/4. March corn futures are 3¢ lower at $3.97 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 6¢ higher at $9.17 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $9.31 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $4.90.



December soymeal futures are $1.90 per short ton higher at $304.80.

 December soy oil futures are unchanged at 29.89¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.06 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 237 points higher.

Mike

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At 8:40am:

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.87 3/4. March corn futures are 1¢ higher at $4.00 3/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.13 3/4. Jan. soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $9.26.

Dec. wheat futures are 3/4¢ lower at $4.87 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $302.90.

 December soy oil futures are $0.68 higher at 29.89¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.67 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 151 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that soybeans had a really good week of exports (mainly to China), but that was already priced into the market.

“Corn exports continue to struggle as does the whole demand scenario for corn. A smaller crop will be somewhat offset by smaller demand. Grain prices seem to be settling into a sideways trading range until we get more harvest complete. Then we can gauge the size of this year’s corn and soybean crop,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “We had another dismal week of export sales for corn. We have booked about half of what we did a year ago. There is a very good chance we will see the USDA decrease their annual corn export projection by 25 to 50 million bushels in next week's monthly report,” Kluis stated.

 

Mike

 

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7 Replies
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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

We had another week of dismal export sales for corn.

Just some what ifs. USDA thinks farmers are holding a lot of corn in their own bins. Is that corn available for export sales? In the spring we heard of difficult times for farmers to get financing.  How many farmers do you know who would not sell grain to farm another year? According to the news bankruptcies are up. No grain left or tied up in court proceedings? Demand really that bad or no corn in place to sell to the export market?  Now every one can jump all over me but in my opinion all the stories don't quite add up.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

Export market doesn't want it.

Yesterday on the close ...

E plant bid $3.90

Feed mill bid $3.79

Train loader $3.73. (Possible export, or Hereford, Texas, etc)

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

There is always a different way to see the issue.   

I applaud your question.  Reporters should be asking so you don't have to.....

"If your wrong about demand being the cause of low exports, what else would be slowing export sales ??"

Every market issue has more than one potential cause.  And right now there isn't a lot of grain out there to ship.

Inventories at ports are published.  But flow from up stream is necessary to ship grain.

Is the lower mississippi and texas gulf open to barge traffic or ship loading...... just 2 weeks after a hurricane flooding and two barge accidents????

I always suspect a pundent that doesn't get questioned and only has one answer.  If he is worth anything, he is watching several issues on the subject and can answer questions.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

Not picking on you Hobby but another story is E-plants closing yet they are the highest bid.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

and ethanol production week to week still up still buying and bidding weekly grind still pretty high

There is a lot of questions on the ethanol side........ 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

The real story maybe years of overstated supply?

Are all those idled plants still shut down?

Where are they located geographically?  Is there a pattern?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, October 4, 2019

 How many of those idled plants shut down because they couldn't source enough corn?

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