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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk October 4

Corn was up a 1/2 cent and beans fell 4 1/2 cents in overnight trading as traders seem unsure who to believe -- the farmers in the field reporting on good, but not great yields or the USDA which is still expecting record production. It may sound like a broken record but analysts and traders are still expecting an extremely large harvest in both corn and beans. Dry weather allowed farmers into fields last week as the corn harvest is 24% complete and the bean harvest is 26% finished. More dry weather in much of the Midwest should allow the harvest to continue, but rains are expected in parts of Iowa today. The dollar is up 0.5% overnight, which may worry some investors who think a stronger greenback will curb export sales. 
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.7% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.9% lower.

Dollar = up 0.5%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher as investors weigh the chances of a rate hike.
World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 4

Come on.........not knowing who to believe?   Aren't the traders smarter than that?

 

On one hand we have the facts.......coming out of the fields.

And......on the other hand........we still have unprecedented predictions.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 4

crop is good.

Demand is better

This will be what, the fourth year in a row that we were supposed to have 2B and 500M carry out. And every year we sink to well under 2B and under 200M.

I keep hearing all the buzz about awesome beans. Maybe I am an outlier but wasnt there awesome bean yields the last few years? So either the USDA understated past yield and demand or this years crop isn't really any better than the last few.

Hell last year all my beans were planted basically as double crop because of the deluge we had all spring and summer and they made mid 50's. Unheard of. 2014 was mid 60's to mid 70's. How can crap dirt make those kind of yields the last few years and the rest of the prime growing regions make less???
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Veteran Advisor

Hang onto your beans..,

Mizzou, you might be onto something.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hang onto your beans..,

from twitter world

 

https://twitter.com/BNorthey/status/783511533053620224

 

https://twitter.com/CoryRitter/status/783481733282926592

 

https://twitter.com/BenRiensche/status/781897683464167424

 

as you can see, the difference in P&L per acre is going to be off the charts this year.  I think you get record yields with large variability, right?   LOL    78 x 9 is 702 revenue per acre.   50 x 9 is 450.

 

I have know idea how this bean crop size ends up.  Not sure anyone does.

 

And I could argue the very same thing for corn.  Hearing best ever corn yields, and disappointing yields(though still good).  Still plenty to go around, especially when the world is comfortable with a few weeks supply on hand at the end of each marketing cycle.

 

Then take the consumer, being hosed, have you seen retail beef prices?  Holy smokes...margins have to be thru the roof for those who handle the beef after it is purchased from the cattleman. 

 

Life is still good.  The more things change, the more they stay the same. The world runs on big money.  So obviously, I am not running anything Smiley Happy   Failure is if you never try.  Honesty still works.

 

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Hang onto your beans..,

Around "here" poor beans (SDS) are 40`s, good beans are 70`s, it`s all going to come down to are there enough in the 70`s to off-set those in the 40`s?  I think so.  But bean prices never fell out of bed as the doomers ($7) predicted, it seems that no matter how many we raise, there`s always someone willing to buy.   Perhaps Brazil no longer has the lock on bean production, we can get a double crop yield in a single crop  Smiley Happy and find demand for them to boot.

 

Corn mois <17% in places, that early dry down doesn`t strike me as yuuuge record yields, too early to tell though, time`ll tell.

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