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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk October 6, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 5 1/4¢ higher at $3.85. March corn futures closed 5¢ higher at $3.94 1/4.

Nov. soybean futures settled 22 1/2¢ higher at $10.44. January soybean futures finished 20 1/2¢ higher at $10.45 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures closed 8 1/2¢ higher at $5.92 1/4.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $9.50 per short ton higher at $355.50.

 Dec. soy oil futures finished $0.53 cent higher at 33.09¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.20 per barrel higher at $40.42. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

 

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the market continues its upward trend on the spot purchasing of bears from China.

"If this continues, if yield is lowered, then carry out drops price too low? But if yield is not dropped carry out stays the same, too much producer selling, basis widens out - seasonal top is near with beans being stored on the ground with 75 percent of corn unharvested," Roose says. 

 

Mike

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At midday:

 

At midsession, the Dec. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $3.87. March corn futures are 7 1/4¢ higher at $3.96 1/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 26 1/2¢ higher at $10.47. January soybean futures are 24 1/2¢ higher at $10.49.

Dec. wheat futures are 11¢ higher at $5.95 1/4.

Dec. soymeal futures are $12.80 per short ton higher at $358.80.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.38 cent higher at 32.94¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.00 per barrel higher at $40.22. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points higher.

Mike

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At 8:48am:

 

In early trading, the Dec. corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.83 1/4. March corn futures are 4¢ higher at $3.93 1/4.

Nov. soybean futures are 16¢ higher at $10.37. January soybean futures are 14 3/4¢ higher at $10.39 3/4.

Dec. wheat futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $5.89.


Dec. soymeal futures are $6.30 per short ton higher at $352.30.

Dec. soy oil futures are $0.47 cent higher at 33.03¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.38 per barrel higher at $40.60. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

On Tuesday, Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 154,400 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

The USDA weekly crop report on Monday afternoon showed corn ratings up 1% (at 61%) good to excellent. Soybean ratings were unchanged. Corn harvest was reported at 25% complete and nationwide soybean harvest was reported at 38%.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that this is the time of the year that investors consider the harvest pace.

"Soybean harvest will pass 55% nationwide in the USDA Crop Progress report next Monday. That will force elevators and end users to start pushing basis bids to lock in the soybeans they need to buy from farmers before the beans go to the bin," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, "Watch the low made last Friday in November soybeans at $10.13. That is the key two-day low. The two-week low at $9.85 held last week, and is now major support. A close below $10.13 on Tuesday or Wednesday will signal a short-term top."

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk October 6, 2020

It is so hard to navigate between the fantasy world and reality.  But if you can manage for a second, we have seen 50% of the harvest done in just over 10 days.  I was in Iowa three days ago and visited with a couple of our contributors while navigating across the state to the north.  (we saw the house where oklahoma got buried)  If you only look at Iowa you can believe the fantasy.  Harvest of beans is flying along.   So if the fantasy is true, the harvest pressure on the market should be as high as it can possibly be in the last 10 days in soybeans.  Yet funds continue to bet on beans going higher.  It makes me wonder how fast the market would be rising if it was not for harvest.  I don't have data put together but seldom has a market run up like this one, during a very fast harvest.  

Yet Al seems to be looking for it to fall........  as always ------- In a year when there was little to feel good about who cries like Al about a very good market move.  And How strong is this move and how long will it take to produce it back into the pesimistical guru's expectations... 

Imo the weather in Brazil is driving the market up as well as a "not so great" US harvest..

I seem to find fewer and fewer locations in the US who are not  disappointed in corn yields so far.  Iowa usually is our flag ship is listing and taking on water.  It will gradually find its way to home port and spend a winter repairing itself.  But this harvest is Iowa is a sad one........ even out of the wind damage there are few areas that look normally strong in suprisingly high yields  --- we all seem to be anxious for it all to be over.  We should be thankful the market is recognizing a weak production year.